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SCREENPLAY Adapted and Original

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  • Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203305471

    Literally the two most important Adapted Screenplay precursors have not been awarded yet.

    1. When’s the last time the winner of both Critics’ Choice and USC Scripter in this category lost the Oscar?

    2. The USC Scripter is the most reliable precursor in this category, they’ve been correct 9 of the 11 past years.

    3. If Greta can win USC Scripter, it’s safe to assume she’ll win the WGA, and likely even the BAFTA (less certain, but not safe to write off).

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203305473

    Literally the two most important Adapted Screenplay precursors have not been awarded yet.

    USC has 80% accuracy this decade in this category. BAFTA has 40% accuracy (a failing grade) and WGA has 60% (barely passing). The most important precursor has happened.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203305493

    Three Billboards was also upset by Get Out. And La La Land by Manchester. Upsets happen quite a bit in this category recently: 4 times in the last 5 years. Once isn’t at WGA, so if they give it to Parasite I think it has a chance to reverse momentum in it’s favor. If not, then Once wins.

    I think you’re overestimating WGA, which can be overruled if a frontrunner or close contender that’s winning everything else is ineligible for WGA (The King’s Speech, Django Unchained, Birdman). Get Out and Manchester were both the frontrunners in their respective years. They were in close races, but Get Out and Manchester were still frontrunners regardless. And they both won the Critics’ Choice.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203310656

    Here’s a question worth asking: how much does WGA ineligibility affect an Oscar race?

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1203310897

    Darlings, Thatcher liked Little Women but thinking it had a better screenplay than The Irishman is DISGUSTING and HILARIOUS.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203311950

    Darlings, Thatcher liked Little Women but thinking it had a better screenplay than The Irishman is DISGUSTING and HILARIOUS.

    I haven’t even seen Little Women yet, but I can confidently say The Irishman’s screenplay was worse. The story was only good when Al Pacino was onscreen: otherwise it was a boring copy of Scorsese’s other mob movies. Everyone says De Niro and Pesci were “subdued”, but they were actually one-dimensional and cliche, and that’s all on how flat the writing was. Oh, and the runtime was absolutely ridiculous. Jojo Rabbit is the film that actually deserves to win, but it’s been underperforming ever since it’s one big victory at TIFF, so I’m not surprised it lost.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    JackO
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    #1203312090

    The stats being thrown around here are laughably inconsistent. So Green Book is why Once is a lock to win because it won GG but nevermind that it lost WGA. And citing 2 movies that won BP as a precedent for Once. If anything you are making an argument for Parasite.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203313785

    Here’s a question worth asking: how much does WGA ineligibility affect an Oscar race?

    People’s predictions?

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1203314590

    I’m personally looking forward to “Academy Award Winner Greta Gerwig”.

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    GermanGuidanceSystem
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    #1203314604

    For Adapted Screenplay it’s difficult to see past Little Women.

    NGNG for Original Screenplay: Knives Out.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203314739

    For Adapted Screenplay it’s difficult to see past Little Women. NGNG for Original Screenplay: Knives Out.

    I’ve been predicting Knives Out for WGA for the longest time because of the mess that the Writers’ Guild made last year. I’ve recently switched to Parasite, but man if Knives Out won the WGA that would throw us all for a loop.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203315050

    It would most likely flush any chance of Parasite winning Best Picture down the toilet as WGA is a key award for BP upset winners, even more than SAG Cast. As for last year, Eighth Grade probably benefited from some guild members being so-so about Green Book – from what I gather WGA is generally younger and more left-leaning than the Academy – while Can You Ever Forgive Me? is a film about a down-on-luck writer which you can imagine would be beneficial for an award given by writers. WGA are usually a bit more predictive than last year (allowing for ineligibilities), so I’m still betting on Parasite to capitalise on its success at SAG and ACE. The writers’ guild have never awarded a film not in English but then they haven’t had much opportunity to do so, as most foreign films have been ineligible.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203315095

    I’ve been predicting Knives Out for WGA for the longest time because of the mess that the Writers’ Guild made last year. I’ve recently switched to Parasite, but man if Knives Out won the WGA that would throw us all for a loop.

    I feel like it’s possible and that really annoys me. WGA can be really random sometimes: awarding Moonlight in Original when it should be in Adapted, giving the award last year to Eight Grade even though that film wasn’t even nominated, etc. But I’m not sure they live Rian and Knives Out enough to reward it. On the other hand, Parasite’s love has been proven with wins at SAG and ACE, so it seems more likely WGA will want to reward it as well.

    If for some reason Parasite doesn’t win WGA I’ll probably switch my predictions for Best Picture to 1917. I just don’t see Once winning with no major guilds and bleeding momentum, even if it wins Screenplay.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    Babygirl
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    #1203315100

    Obviously if Parasite loses WGA, that would mean Hollywood would take Screenplay.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203315408

    WGA can be really random sometimes: awarding Moonlight in Original when it should be in Adapted

    You are really siding with the academy on that one? Moonlight is “adapted” from an unproduced draft of a script and the original writer has sole “Story By” credit on Moonlight. This is the kind of thing that happens all the time in film. A studio hires somebody to write a draft, then they get someone else to rewrite it. The film does not become an “adaptation” of the earlier draft—that is why the “Story By” credit exists. The film does not have a “Based on the Play By” credit as such. It was only stupidly reclassified by the Oscars because the media ran with the narrative that Moonlight was based on some play because nobody ever read the original draft and they assumed that it was a play because the writer has made a career as a playwright. You can even find an interview with him in which he says, “First of all, it was never a play.”

    It would most likely flush any chance of Parasite winning Best Picture down the toilet as WGA is a key award for BP upset winners, even more than SAG Cast. As for last year, Eighth Grade probably benefited from some guild members being so-so about Green Book – from what I gather WGA is generally younger and more left-leaning than the Academy – while Can You Ever Forgive Me? is a film about a down-on-luck writer which you can imagine would be beneficial for an award given by writers. WGA are usually a bit more predictive than last year (allowing for ineligibilities), so I’m still betting on Parasite to capitalise on its success at SAG and ACE.

    I want to be with you because the WGA is normally predictive, but they were just so wildly off base last year that I cannot trust them. The same goes for Scripter, so I need Little Women to sweep all of these precursors before I predict it for the Oscars over Jojo Rabbit, as I do not trust them individually. Parasite can lose everything from now to the Oscars and I would probably still predict it for Original Screenplay because it got that SAG-ACE combination and WGA going for anything else can be too easily dismissed after last year, not to mention that a Korean film is going to have a harder time with the more populist WGA membership than the elitist academy.

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