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Secret Oscar Ballots (Part 2)

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    Jan 23rd, 2013
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    #1204878474

    I do believe that certain interviews are chosen and published from more that are conducted that are perhaps more conventional in choices. Who knows. Penelope obviously has passion. I still think Jessica is the popular choice.

    While these ballots may not be coming from a majority of academy members, they have correctly forecasted potential upsets before. In 2018, it looked like Glenn Close was finally going to win her very first Oscar for The Wife. Academy members claimed in their anonymous ballots that she was a lock, but they still voted for Olivia Colman in The Favourite because she was their passion pick. Last year, it looked like Chadwick Boseman was winning a posthumous Oscar for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Academy members claimed that he was a lock, but they still voted for Anthony Hopkins in The Father because he was their passion pick. If the passion for Cruz is real, then it probably shouldn’t be underestimated.

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    Chris Beachum
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    May 22nd, 2011
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    #1204878893

    I do believe that certain interviews are chosen and published from more that are conducted that are perhaps more conventional in choices. Who knows. Penelope obviously has passion. I still think Jessica is the popular choice.

    We only interviewed the 5 people we published, and I never have any idea of what they are going to like or dislike.

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    ScottieG
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    Dec 25th, 2021
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    #1204878900

    What did he do to even earn that nomination? Lol Definitely a namecheck.

    I mean there was passion for BTR at one point. But it fizzled out pretty much straight after the noms were announced. 😂😂

    "I'm not mad at you Helga. I'm mad at the dirt!"

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    Jaket1991
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    #1204878922

    We only interviewed the 5 people we published, and I never have any idea of what they are going to like or dislike.

    This was unspecific to GD, but thank you for clarifying

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    Arkane
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    Feb 4th, 2012
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    #1204878926

    Yeah I definitely do not think they are curated outside of Gold Derby either — maybe THR does, because they’re known for the “brutally honest” aspect of it. My guess is that the people being sampled are NY/LA-centric and likely long-time Oscar voters, so not necessarily a representative sample.

    As far as these results, and speaking of a representative sample…the first person I heard (and maybe others were as well, but it was the first I heard) tout Penelope Cruz as someone with a very good shot was Pete Hammond, who pointed out that she has the passion and the international support/expansion of Oscar voting. But if Cruz is getting votes from NY/LA-centric long-time Oscar voters, that seems very, very good for her chances at an upset.

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    laslo
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    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204878928

    We only interviewed the 5 people we published, and I never have any idea of what they are going to like or dislike.

    Also Penélope had more votes than Chastain in ballots from all sources, not just GoldDerby and I doubt everyone would select a certain type of voter on purpose. Chastain is still the obvious front runner based on her SAG win but Cruz seems to have a shot based solely on individual passion.

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    Monet Tejada
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    Sep 27th, 2011
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    #1204878936

    Chastain might have won that SAG, but she also didn’t go head to head with Cruz and Stewart. So, we really don’t know if the final SAG results will matter here. I do feel that Chastain is ahead of Colman and Kidman, though.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1204878941

    Did I read that right? Spielberg and Campion are tied?

    Please don’t get my hopes up because West Side Story is so much more deserving than doggy Dog! If Spielberg wins I will scream and dance and cheer so loud my neighbors will complain! (;

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    Shrek Superslam
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    #1204879137

    Don’t think anyone can beat Christophe Waltz in Django Unchained in terms of most hated nominated performance ever. Seriously, what the hell did he do to win over De Niro?

     

    ….What?

     

    Waltz in Django Unchained is regarded as a great performance by almost everyone I’m familiar with. People think Waltz and DiCaprio were the standouts in supporting from that year.

    Obviously, the more film-literate would probably say Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master.

     

    But in no way is Waltz a hated Oscar nominee or winner for Django.

     

    What a strange remark.

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    Will, from Cal
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    #1204879530

    ….What?

    Waltz in Django Unchained is regarded as a great performance by almost everyone I’m familiar with. People think Waltz and DiCaprio were the standouts in supporting from that year.

    Obviously, the more film-literate would probably say Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master.

    But in no way is Waltz a hated Oscar nominee or winner for Django.

    What a strange remark.

    I would agree with you, except to say that 1) like Hilary Swank, there is a certain animosity to Waltz going 2 for 2 when other actors with more impressive resumes remain empty-handed, and 2) it’s not like he swept the season, or wasn’t in a competitive field. Tommy Lee Jones and Hoffman had more going for them, as I can recall.

    But yeah, it was a weird bone to pick

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    Pablo J Garcia
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    Jan 11th, 2016
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    #1204879538

    I will love Pe winning, but Jessica is also a great pic. Either way, the daughter of a spaniard get an oscar.

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    Will, from Cal
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    #1204879622

    Look, these things are fun, but – and I cannot emphasize this enough, are nowhere near a wide enough survey to mean anything significantly more than absolutely nothing. Even if we collected 50 of these things, that would be less than one half of one percent of an almost 10,000 member international organization. This is like people leaving a political rally thinking that their candidate is definitely winning, because they felt the passion and everyone they are talking to is agreeing on who to vote for. Or my Mom worrying that Covid is coming roaring back because a few of her friends on Facebook got sick. No Mom, it doesn’t matter whether all of your friends got it, cases are still down 97%, your friends are unlucky, and anecdotes are not data.

    “But sometimes they tell you when an upset is happening!”
    They. Never. Do. That. Unless. There. Is. Also. Another. Sign. That. Is. Already. Telling. You. That. Olivia Colman had Globe, BAFTA, AACTA, Critics Choice, most regional critics and the Volpi Cup. A buncha grumpy online tea-spillers didn’t tip you off, all those other things should have.

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