February 22, 2014 at 9:16 pm #142550
What are your picks? is everyone really going with the predetermined fronturnners here?
Get a Horse
Room on the Broom
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Karama Has No Walls
Prison Terminal: Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Live Action Short:
The Voorman Problem
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
Just Before Losing Everything
Do I Have to Take Care of EverythingRiley (the normal one, not the one who won the predictions contest)ParticipantFebruary 23, 2014 at 12:03 am #142552
Live-action will probably have an upset because I feel like every viewing report for The Voorman Problem has been one of disappointment, but I have no idea what will upset it. Also, pretty much no “expert” or “editor” is predicting an upset, so I have little to gain from picking either Helium, That Wasn’t Me or Just Before Losing Everything. If the options were “The Voorman Problem” and “one of those three”, I might go with the latter, but the chances that I pick the right one are slim. And what if voters do not watch the tapes and end up just voting for that one because it has the most buzz? Or what if the race if too split and no single one of the others can rise above the pack because The Voorman Problem is the only one with built-in support? Then I get the prediction wrong and everyone else gets it right. It is better if just no one gets it right. I will say that there is now way that the Oscar goes to Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?February 23, 2014 at 3:01 am #142553
I actually feel like the “upset” (and i think there aboslutely will be in at least one of these 3 categories) would be in animated short. I don’t see one for doc, and if there is one in live action, my guess it comes down to Just Before and Helium.
“the chances that I pick the right one are slim”
Precisely, that’s my main issue. I’ve ranked them, largely, by the likelihood of their narrative/importance appealing to voters, provided voters are familiar with them and not just checking off the most buzzed/expected. I do think the majority who do vote on these categories will at least know what each is about.
Have there really been reports on negative reception to Voorman?February 23, 2014 at 3:10 am #142554
Ah the ugly step kids. I’m literally seeing somebody mention these here at Goldderby the first time this awards season.February 23, 2014 at 3:14 am #142555
First time i’m paying attention to them. Their emptiness was glaring at me.Riley (the normal one, not the one who won the predictions contest)ParticipantFebruary 23, 2014 at 3:15 am #142556
I would like to see something beat Get a Horse! It seemed dated. I know that that was the point, but there are ways to do things in homage without bringing along things that society has since reevaluated. Basically, I found it excessively violent. Also, Paperman was too basic to be such the lock that it was, so I would not mind knocking Disney down a peg in that category.February 23, 2014 at 4:47 am #142557
I have only seen the Animated Short category and I only liked 3 of them – 1) Mr. Hublot – clever with a heart; 2) Room on a Broom – could win, had a “Wizard of Oz” feel to it; and 3) Get a Horse – pure Disney fun with a twist. I would vote for Mr. Hublot, but wouldn’t mind if either of the other two won. I didn’t like Feral and Possessions at all and prefered all 3 of the “commendable” shorts they also showed during the screening. It’s funny, because the young woman behind me commented after the show that “Feral” was her favorite – different strokes, different folks.February 23, 2014 at 6:37 am #142558
“Helium” could definitely upset – Kim Magnusson has so many nominations in the Live Action category that they might give the Oscar to her as a lifetime achievement award.
I would love Just Before Losing Everything, Get a Horse!, and CaveDigger to win.February 23, 2014 at 8:18 am #142559
The best of the animated shorts was “Mr. Hublot” by far. I really hope that one wins the Oscar next month. “Get a Horse!” is very dated and tedious, and nothing like the classic and beautiful Disney entry last year that won this category, “Paperman.” (which I knew was winning the moment I saw it). I saw this short before “Frozen” way back, and I would have never expected it to get in. In fact, when I got to the theater and this one had already started, I thought, okay, they’re showing one of the honorable mentions before getting to the real five nominees (or as they call them, “highly commended,” which are normally shown after the Oscar nominees). I then checked the nominees list again on my iPhone, and sure enough, this nonsense was one of the final five. The popular vote is its best chance of winning. “Room on the Broom” is the classy British entry, but that doesn’t always win out. “Feral” is the most experimental of the five nominees. I wouldn’t be disappointed if that one manages a win, I guess. “Possessions” was okay with the anime flourishes, but more middle of the pack in content to me. Overall, I was quite disappointed by the lack of depth of the animated shorts nominees this year. That’s usually not the case as they’re routinely more engaging than the live action shorts. Certainly not the case this time around. “Mr. Hublot” is my final prediction.
Live action shorts will be be very tricky to predict. Striking entries across the board. The sentimental choice would be “Helium,” the story of a male orderly who befriends a dying boy by telling him a fantastical story about what the afterlife will be like. It’s filmed very well and tugs at the heartstrings, but some might find it overly cloying in places. “The Voorman Problem” reminds me of “Curfew” in both tone and execution (it won this category last year), but it’s short and weird. Martin Freeman and Tom Hollander star in it though, and they are recognizable British faces that voters might be familiar with in the popular vote. There’s always the “African Strife”/”White Liberal Guilt” nominee in there somewhere (“Na Wewe” and “Asad,” for examples), and here it is again with “That Wasn’t Me” about child soldiers. It might pull all the right strings with its redemptive arc and win the category too, though those two aforementioned shorts didn’t. “Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?” is quirky, funny, and to the point. It might split votes from “The Voorman Problem.” “Just Before Losing Everything” is a disturbing one about domestic violence, and it stars the French guy from “Inglorious Basterds.” I don’t know if I’d be all that comfortable picking that one or not, but it’s certainly suspenseful and tense. I think I’m predicting “Helium” all the same though.February 23, 2014 at 9:23 am #142560
I saw the animated shorts program, and the only thing I liked and thought would be an Oscar favorite is “Room on a Broom”.
“Get a Horse” is a frontrunner b/c it has to do with Mickey Mouse and was seen by many because it was shown with Frozen in 3-D! But I can’t imagine anyone loving that film.February 23, 2014 at 10:58 am #142561
I saw all the shorts.
For the animated, the only one I liked was Get a Horse!. My favorite in this category has won this category ever since I started watching the shorts every year.
For live action, I loved Voorman Problem and Do I Have to Take Care of Everything. I also liked Just Before Losing Everything, but felt it could have been more suspenseful. I don’t know what will win the category. Are they willing to ignore films about African child soldiers too years in a row?
For Documentary, Prison Terminal spoke to me emotionally and Karama Has No Walls spoke to me intelectually. I’m leaning towards Lady in Number 6 because it tells part of the Holocaust people probably didn’t know about.February 23, 2014 at 12:41 pm #142562
”Get a Horse!” is very dated and tedious, and nothing like the classic and beautiful Disney entry last year that won this category, “Paperman.” (which I knew was winning the moment I saw it). I saw this short before “Frozen” way back, and I would have never expected it to get in. In fact, when I got to the theater and this one had already started, I thought, okay, they’re showing one of the honorable mentions before getting to the real five nominees (or as they call them, “highly commended,” which are normally shown after the Oscar nominees). I then checked the nominees list again on my iPhone, and sure enough, this nonsense was one of the final five. The popular vote is its best chance of winning.
Interesting. I had the opposite reaction. I watched Get a Horse! before Frozen in December and very much enjoyed it. I consider it one of the biggest locks of the night.February 23, 2014 at 1:30 pm #142563
are the animated shorts actually available to everyone? where did you guys see them? i want to watch themFebruary 23, 2014 at 1:40 pm #142564
Remember that these categories are now voted on by the entire membership (many probably making their choices without seeing all the shorts). They used to have some left-field winners when small pools of people were voting…it’s a little different to predict now with the changed rules. I wonder if going with the Gold Derby consensus will prove correct…it was last year for these categories (the first year of the rule change).
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