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Should I predict LLL or Manchester for Original Screenplay?

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  • GMonty777
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    #1202018089

    I am really torn on this one. Please explain your selection. Here’s my dilemma:

    I know for a fact that the Best Picture winner almost ALWAYS wins for screenplay. We have seen few examples of it failing: The Artist, Million Dollar Baby, and Chicago, and Gladiator since 2000. I also know that the Golden Globe winner for Best Screenplay almost always goes on to win a screenplay award at the Oscars, when it’s eligible. This all points to LLL for Best Original Screenplay. But on the other hand, I know that Musicals rarely win screenplay awards. I believe they are 3/10. The Academy might feel that the Manchester’s script is more well-developed and filled with more developed supporting characters.

    I keep on going back and forth, today I am leaning toward: LLL. Yesterday I was thinking Manchester. My original prediction was LLL.

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    janbryan
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    #1202018126

    This is not a strong reason to go with MBTS but I feel that the Academy want to honour Kenneth Lonergan’s work somewhere. If they can’t give the Best Director award, they would at least want to give the Best Original Screenplay to him.

    https://letterboxd.com/janbryan/

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    Pulp
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    #1202018250

    I’m torn too. I’ve been leaning towards Manchester. It’s won nearly every critics award for it’s screenplay, while LLL only picked up one critics group award for it’s screenplay last time I checked. They tied at Critics Choice, LLL won the Golden Globe, but Manchester won Bafta. They both lost WGA to Moonlight but to me that seems to favor Manchester more since they went with the film that actually had more of a story to it. I think voters all really know what the better script is, and at this point all LLL has won is the GG and Critics Choice which Manchester by the Sea also won. I’m actually glad Moonlight is in Adapted or this would be really hard.

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    janbryan
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    #1202018304

    Manchester has way better script than La La Land.

    https://letterboxd.com/janbryan/

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202018306

    Of just these 2 scripts, La La Land SHOULD clearly win but Manchester WILL clearly win, sadly. 🙁

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202018355

    This is not a strong reason to go with MBTS but I feel that the Academy want to honour Kenneth Lonergan’s work somewhere. If they can’t give the Best Director award, they would at least want to give the Best Original Screenplay to him.

    I remember that line of argument being used two years ago for Wes Anderson over the Birdman committee. The Academy has shown very little “sharing the love” principles. Seeing as how everybody votes for screenplay, I have a feeling they are HIGH on LLL.

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    AwardsConnect
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    #1202018393

    If La La Land is winning here, it is sweeping BIG TIME. As I don’t see that being the likely case, I do have Manchester.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    BamaEd
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    #1202018422

    I know, it is a dilemma. Logic says Manchester for all of the reasons said before. Logic also said Boyhood over Birdman as well. Lonergan wrote a better movie than he directed so it’d be nice to reward that.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202018478

    My post seemed to have disappeared, so here it is again. Apologies if it comes up twice.

    Let’s look at some stats for the most recent Best Picture Oscar winners that lost screenplay, going back to 1990. I’m looking to see if these movies won any other major screenplay awards.

    The Artist (2011): Won BAFTA, but this was the last year they had the reverse voting system of the Oscars, in that the whole academy voted for the nominees and the individual branches chose the winners. Was ineligible for WGA.

    Million Dollar Baby (2004): Won USC Scripter Award over eventual Oscar-winner Sideways. Lost WGA to Sideways and was not nominated for Globe or Critics Choice, although the latter didn’t yet have separate categories for Original and Adapted.

    Chicago (2002): Nothing all season, and was not even nominated for BAFTA despite earning 12 nominations from them. Lost WGA not to Oscar-winner The Pianist but to The Hours.

    Gladiator (2000): Nada. No Globe or WGA nomination; don’t know if it was eligible for the latter or not.

    The English Patient (1996): Won BAFTA, but of course this was decided by the writers branch and not the whole academy. Also won Critics Choice and USC Scripter Award, although Oscar-winner Sling Blade was not eligible at the latter as it was not based on a book. Lost WGA to Sling Blade.

    Braveheart (1995): Won WGA, but Oscar-winner The Usual Suspects was absent so perhaps it was ineligible. No BAFTA nomination, but they also did not nominate it for Best Film.

    Unforgiven (1992): Won no televised or guild awards, but did win Los Angeles Critics and the National Society of Film Critics. Lost WGA to Oscar-winner The Crying Game.

    OK, so the first conclusion to draw from this is that comparisons of La La Land to Chicago are meaningless, as Chicago didn’t win anything for writing and even missed out on a BAFTA nod with the whole academy voting at the nomination stage, so that’s highly relevant. La La Land tied at Critics Choice and won the Globe outright – which brings me to my next point, which is that all of the movies listed above lost the Globe for Screenplay, if they were nominated at all. In fact, no BP Oscar winner in history has won the Screenplay Globe but lost Screenplay at the Oscars. Is that a coincidence? Maybe. But remember that the Globes give out the only screenplay award that Oscar-voters are likely to watch on TV. This award could be influential if voters already like the movie enough to vote for it in Best Picture.

    Otherwise, any clues from these stats are a little murky. On the face of it, the most persuasive example to suggest a La La Land loss would be The English Patient, as that movie had won three major screenplay awards going into the Oscars, although Critics Choice was not considered as significant a precursor then as it is now. There was also the narrative of Billy Bob Thornton having directed, written and starred in Sling Blade, and with Geoffrey Rush a slam-dunk for Best Actor they wanted to award Thornton somewhere for his achievement.

    One final thing to note is that three of these BP winners lost WGA to the same movie that beat it for the Screenplay Oscar. (Another lost WGA to a different film, and the other scenarios are complicated by ineligibilities or snubs.) As I believe Manchester by the Sea, not La La Land, would’ve won WGA if Moonlight had been considered Adapted there, that could be a good reason to predict Manchester for the Oscar. But it’s a tricky one. I always thought Manchester would win BAFTA regardless, because they rarely do sweep-voting, so that didn’t really help. And with Hell or High Water as a potential dark horse, that might, if anything, take more votes away from Manchester than from La La Land.

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    Bee
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    #1202018484

    If they are too high on La La Land, then it’s winning screenplay unfortunately. If they have their heads right, then Manchester by the Sea will win. Though like I said before, Manchester is not a film in which they feel like they have to reward other than Affleck’s performance. And even then, Affleck could still lose. So Manchester can go 0/6

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    unbb24
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    #1202018488

    I’m going to predict La La Land because of the sweep mentality

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202018490

    If they are too high on La La Land, then it’s winning screenplay unfortunately. If they have their heads right, then Manchester by the Sea will win. Though like I said before, Manchester is not a film in which they feel like they have to reward other than Affleck’s performance. And even then, Affleck could still lose. So Manchester can go 0/6

    Manchester might, if anything, be stronger in Original Screenplay than Actor.

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202018558

    The dialogue is so laughable and the characterizations (what few there even are) are so thin in LA LA LAND, part of me is in complete disbelief that it even has a shot at winning here.  But there is something about this film that clearly connects with a lot of Academy members, so I wouldn’t put it past them to coattail this award along with many others.  Certainly, Lonergan isn’t such a heavy in the industry (status-wise) that he’s overdue for recognition.  He’s written a wonderful movie and if anything has a chance of beating Chazelle, it’s him.  But at this point, almost nothing would surprise me other than LAND winning 6 or less.  *That* would genuinely shock me.

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    andrea_nl25
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    #1202018582

    Heart says MBTS, head says LLL.

    It shouldn’t even be a competition in my opinion. MBTS has the most wonderful story of the year.

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    JackO
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    #1202018586

    I’m predicting La LA. Nowadays BP and screenplay go hand in hand. La La has also won GG and tied at CC. Manchester has lost WGA where it was heavy favorite. I don’t look too far with BAFTA since they do their own thing.

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