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So, where does A Star Is Born stand now?

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    tom92
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    #1202727098

    BAFTA has confirmed its winning best picture

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    Noah Arlington
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    #1202727112

    Sam Elliott is out.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1202727129

    BAFTA just tell us ASIB is still something ,whereas our British “Bohemian Rhapsody” could not make it into BAFTA best film nominees.

    Kubrick-Coen-Tarantino-Hitchcock-Lynch-Fellini-BillyWilde-WesAnderson
    "One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest(1975)"[All Time Fav]

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202727135

    If there were only 5 nominees and we didn’t have the expanded BP nominations Bohemian Rhapsody would not get a BP nomination. The top five for Oscars were the five films nominated for Best Film at BAFTA. A Star Is Born is one of the two films that is most likely to win and the question is how much passion does it have? it has many advantages over Roma (the better film imo), but Roma will get better placements and that is why I am predicting it will win. It could go either way, with a small chance for either BlacKkKlansman or Green Book winning BP, but I don’t see either one of them having enough passion to overtake the two front-runners.

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    M
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    #1202727143

    I think the Academy will give Gaga the song and Bradley something. I’m still not sure. It could be Best Director, Best Picture or Best Actor.

    I’m leaning towards Best Picture. I don’t see them giving both Best Picture and Best Director to the same film. It doesn’t happen that often anyway.

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    Vincent Yeoh
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    #1202727149

    90% for best song
    55% for best director
    23% for best actor
    12% for best picture

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202727690

    Why does Bradley Cooper *have* to win something? The first time Warren Beatty pulled a 4-way nomination (Acting, Writing, Directing, Pic), he didn’t win any of the 4. And he had *far* more substantial a standing in Hollywood than Cooper does currently.

    And I think it will suffer from a variation of what LA LA LAND struggled with. When it got 14 nominations, I really think it forced people to re-evaluate “Wow, I liked it, but did I like it *that* much?” I think people really did change their final votes when looking at the possibility of a record-breaking sweep.

    Similarly, people will look at ASIB and Best Picture and think “Wow, it’s good, but it’s not even the best ASIB!” (remember, we still have a lot of older members among the ranks). So that might not impact some of the categories (acting and below-the-line) but will have a real impact on their Picture ranking.

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    MoonlightTommy
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    #1202727762

    I have trouble understanding why some people think ASIB is out of the race for Best Picture because it lost at the Globes to a film that isn’t even guaranteed a best picture nom. If ASIB wins Critics Choice and PGA, it could still win Best Picture, like Shape of Water did last year (SoW wasn’t even a SAG ensemble nom). The question is whether or not ASIB will benefit from a preferential ballot.

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    Kubrick
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    #1202727815

    I still have ASIB penciled in as the BP winner, with Roma next in line. I think Roma may be too high brow, with ASIB being the crowd pleaser. While BR is a money makin’ machine, it seems, I have trouble seeing it as a BP winner. I mean, the Singer affiliation alone would deter me from voting for it.

    I’ll see how the guilds shake out, and go from there.

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