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2021 BAFTA Predictions

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1203990879

    Lol, unlike last year, the BAFTA’s can’t ignore people of color for their acting categories. I do expect Minari to be snubbed, because now that they’ll nominate some blacks, they’ll completely ignore Asians.

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    wolfali
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    #1203995695

    So I’ve done many shortlist predictions but here are my first predictions of what will be on the long-list.

    Film

    – Another Round
    – The Father
    – Judas and the Black Messiah
    – Malcolm and Marie
    – Mank
    – Minari
    – Mogul Mowgli
    – Nomadland
    – One Night in Miami
    – Promising Young Woman
    – Rocks
    – Saint Maud
    – Soul
    – Sound of Metal
    – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Director

    – Radha Blank
    – Autumn de Wilde
    – Emerald Fennell
    – David Fincher
    – Sarah Gavron
    – Rose Glass
    – Eliza Hittman
    – Lee Isaac Chung
    – Charlie Kaufman
    – Regina King
    – Shaka King
    – Spike Lee
    – Phyllida Lloyd
    – Darius Marder
    – Kevin MacDonald
    – Shannon Murphy
    – Aaron Sorkin
    – Baseem Tariq
    – Florian Zeller
    – Chloe Zhao

    Actor

    – Riz Ahmed
    – Kingsley Ben-Adir
    – Chadwick Boseman
    – George Clooney
    – John David Washington
    – Colin Firth
    – Anthony Hopkins
    – Cosmo Jarvis
    – Delroy Lindo
    – Madds Mikkelsen
    – Gary Oldman
    – Tahar Rahim
    – Lakeith Stanfield
    – Toby Wallace
    – Steven Yeun

    Actress

    – Bukky Bakray
    – Jessie Buckley
    – Morfydd Clark
    – Viola Davis
    – Sally Hawkins
    – Sophia Loren
    – Vanessa Kirby
    – Frances McDormand
    – Wunmi Mosaku
    – Elisabeth Moss
    – Carey Mulligan
    – Rosamund Pike
    – Eliza Scanlen
    – Kate Winslet
    – Zendaya

    Spoilers: Beanie Feldstein, Tina Fey, Julia Garner

    S. Actor

    – Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
    – Sacha Baron Cohen
    – Chadwick Boseman
    – Bo Burnham
    – Daniel Kaluuya
    – Barry Keoghan
    – Ben Mendelsohn
    – Josh O’Connor
    – Leslie Odom-Jr.
    – Paul Raci
    – Eddie Redmayne
    – Mark Rylance
    – Alan S. Kim
    – David Strathairn
    – Stanley Tucci

    Spoilers: D’Angelou Ossei Kssiedu, Thomas Bo Larsen, Frank Langella, Ally Khan

    S. Actress

    – Kosar Ali
    – Maria Bakalova
    – Ellen Burstyn
    – Priyanka Chopra
    – Olivia Cooke
    – Toni Colette
    – Olivia Colman
    – Essie Davis
    – Jennifer Ehle
    – Dominique Fishback
    – Jodie Foster
    – Miranda Hart
    – Amanda Seyfried
    – Swankie
    – Yuh Jung-Youn

    British Film

    – Ammonite
    – Billie
    – Calm with Horses
    – Emma.
    – Eternal Beauty
    – The Father
    – Herself
    – His House
    – Host
    – I Care A Lot
    – Luxor
    – The Mauritanian
    – Monsoon
    – Misbehaviour
    – Mogul Mowgli
    – Possessor
    – Promising Young Woman
    – Rocks
    – Saint Maud
    – Supernova

    Spoiler: The Dig, How to Build a Girl, To Olivia, Pixie

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203996785

    Carey Mulligan came on Graham Norton to promote Promising Young Woman today (looks like she’s challenging Vanessa for that British bloc support!) so I feel safe in saying that it’s coming out on PVOD here to make eligibility.

    And good because I need people in my non film social circles to see this masterpiece.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1204000242

    There was a member of BAFTA who compared Promising Young Woman to Parasite and I think (at BAFTA) it could pull a similar set of wins to Parasite by winning Screenplay and British Film (like Parasite won Foreign Film). And maybe also Actress (which Parasite obviously didn’t do).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Rachel615
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    #1204000255

    FYI.  This morning, BAFTA extended its eligibility period for the 2021 Film Awards.

    Due to the continuing impact of COVID-19, U.K. cinema closures and the limited availability of cinema screens, entered titles scheduled to release before the eligibility cut-off of April 9 will be automatically eligible if they release within the 2021 calendar year without the need for an appeal.  A theatrical release is not required for the 2021 awards.

    See https://variety.com/2021/film/global/bafta-awards-eligibility-extended-1234891261/

    Good news for Promising Young Woman’s chances.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204000261

    Yeah I think <i>Promising Young Woman</i>, Sound of Metal, <i>Another</i> RoundNomadland and The Father are all easily going to PVOD.

    It’s a shame they won’t be on the big screen. <i>Promising Young Woman </i>and The Father are excellent films to see on the big screen and Nomadland is a cinematic masterpiece (I’m sure both apply to Another Round and Sound of Metal too).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Eddy Q
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    #1204000274

    Yeah I think <i>Promising Young Woman</i>, Sound of Metal, <i>Another</i> Round, Nomadland and The Father are all easily going to PVOD.

    Perhaps, but if I understand correctly studios can hold a film’s release until any time in 2021 as long as they submit for this season (with screeners etc.). Nomadland in particular I expect to stick to its theatrical release plan unless it becomes clear that won’t be possible for even the very end of awards season; and even then, there is still the option to withhold it.

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    wolfali
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    #1204000317

    Perhaps, but if I understand correctly studios can hold a film’s release until any time in 2021 as long as they submit for this season (with screeners etc.). Nomadland in particular I expect to stick to its theatrical release plan unless it becomes clear that won’t be possible for even the very end of awards season; and even then, there is still the option to withhold it.

    Admittedly I skimmed through the article and missed that completely. Yeah I expect The Father and Nomadland will probably go for cinema releases when they reopen here.

    I will be surprised if Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal still go for theatrical releases at this point. The creatives involved have been going around promoting their films for a “release date soon” and it would be bit of a waste to promote things to people in January/February and then release your film in July. Then again I can’t complain because I’d rather see Sound of Metal on the big screen when it’s safer than on the small screen. The Mauritanian is probably going to Amazon (STX have an agreement with Amazon in the UK hence why I Care A Lot is going there and Hustlers was added on there so soon).

    I’ve noticed some films have gone to Curzon Home Cinema to make BAFTA eligibility before having a strike at box office gold later in the year like James Norton’s new film. I expect Ammonite will probably go there.

    Does this make <i>Everybody’s Talking About Jamie </i>suddenly eligible because screeners were sent to BAFTA and it was submitted?

    BAFTA eligibility is going to get even more confusing than it already is this year. Several films eligible for the Oscars this year will be eligible for the BAFTAs in 2022 like <i>The Nest </i>and First Cow, several films eligible for the BAFTAs in 2021 will be eligible for the Oscars in 2022 like To Olivia and we’ll be getting films like The Father and Nomadland (and potentially even Promising Young Woman and <i>Sound of Metal </i>if they go the route of that James Norton film and go on Amazon or Netflix for a month before going to movie theatres) in cinemas as summer films!

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    AMG
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    #1204000975

    Longlist predictions

    Rationale behind this is to (generally) go for any BIG British names regardless of the film itself. They always miss out on a couple Oscar hitters – traditionally ones that star non-whites.

    BEST FILM
    Ammonite
    Another Round
    Da 5 Bloods
    The Father
    Herself
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Mank
    News of the World
    Nomadland
    One Night In Miami
    Promising Young Woman
    Rocks
    Soul
    Tenet
    Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Francis Lee – Ammonite
    Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round
    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
    Autumn de Wilde – Emma
    Florian Zeller – The Father
    Phyllida Lloyd – Herself
    George C Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    David Fincher – Mank
    Philippa Lowthorpe – Misbehaviour
    Paul Greengrass – News of the World
    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
    Sofia Coppola – On The Rocks
    Regina King – One Night In Miami
    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
    Sarah Gavron – Rocks
    Rose Glass – Saint Maud
    Jessica Swale – Summerland
    Christopher Nolan – Tenet
    Garrett Bradley – Time
    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST LEADING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
    Gemma Arterton – Summerland
    Bukky Bakray – Rocks
    Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Claire Dunne – Herself
    Sally Hawkins – Eternal Beauty
    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
    Keira Knightley – Misbehaviour
    Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead
    Frances McDormand – Nomadland
    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
    Anya Taylor Joy – Emma
    Kate Winslet – Ammonite
    Alfre Woodard – Clemency

    BEST LEADING ACTOR
    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
    Kingsley Ben Adir – One Night In Miami
    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Colin Firth – Supernova
    Levan Gelbakhiani – And Then We Danced
    Henry Golding – Monsoon
    Eli Goree – One Night In Miami
    Tom Hanks – News of the World
    Max Harwood – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
    Anthony Hopkins – The Father
    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
    Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round
    Gary Oldman – Mank
    Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian
    John David Washington – Tenet

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Kosar Ali – Rocks
    Jessie Buckley – Misbehaviour
    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of A Woman
    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
    Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Olivia Colman – The Father
    Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal
    Judi Dench – Blithe Spirit
    Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
    Miranda Hart – Emma
    Gemma Jones – Ammonite
    Lesley Manville – Misbehaviour
    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
    Kirsten Scott Thomas – Rebecca
    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7
    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Mauritanian
    Charles Dance – Mank
    Richard E Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
    D’angelou Osei Kissiedu – Rocks
    Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7
    Bill Murray – On The Rocks
    Bill Nighy – Emma
    Josh O’Connor – Emma
    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
    Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7
    Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7
    David Thewlis – I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Stanley Tucci – Supernova

    BEST BRITISH FILM
    Ammonite
    County Lines
    Emma
    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
    The Father
    Herself
    His House
    Misbehaviour
    Monsoon
    One Man & His Shoes
    Promising Young Woman
    Rocks
    Saint Maud
    Summerland
    Supernova

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    AMG
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    #1204001865

    He can only be long listed once under current rules.

    All updated.

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204007091

    Seems we’ve not got a predictions centre (I still don’t know why). Can we have one when the longlist comes out next week?

    FYC OSCARS

    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)

    THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)

    Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song

    Chloe Zhao for Director

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1204007118

    We will have a BAFTA predictions event after nominations are announced. We don’t offer one before then.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204007128

    We will have a BAFTA predictions event after nominations are announced. We don’t offer one before then.

    I know this is normally the case, possibly as they tend to nominate several unknown british stars who won’t be in the prediction centre. But seems there’s only 15 possibilities in each category, it makes sense to have one this year

    FYC OSCARS

    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)

    THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)

    Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song

    Chloe Zhao for Director

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    wolfali
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    #1204007655

    Fellow UK cinema enthusiasts and viewers! Glasgow Film Festival will be screening The MauritanianMinari and Black Bear virtually! All you have to do is rent the film and it will be available from the date specified on the website.

    https://glasgowfilm.org/glasgow-film-festival/whats-on/all

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1204007741

    The way BAFTA essentially changed its rules for the acting categories so Margot Robbie wouldn’t get nominated so many times but she’s still getting nominated as a producer on Promising Young Woman.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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