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2021 BAFTA Predictions

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204007981

    January 28, 2021 at 7:40 pm#1204007741
    The way BAFTA essentially changed its rules for the acting categories so Margot Robbie wouldn’t get nominated so many times but she’s still getting nominated as a producer on Promising Young Woman.

    6 Noms in 4 Years, that’s impressive

    FYC OSCARS

    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)

    THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)

    Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song

    Chloe Zhao for Director

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    KAZ-2.5
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    #1204007987

    I love Margot but the BAFTA’S looked so clownish and out of touch when they nominated her twice in that supporting category.

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    #1204007993
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Marrowbone
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    #1204008217

    Um… is Minari ineligible for BAFTA? I’m sure Youn Yuh Jung is at least ahead of half of those women on that list

    It’s eligible but BAFTA are well-known racists.

    ⭐Best Actress - Carey Mulligan, Rosamund Pike

    ⭐Best Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-Jung

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    AMG
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    #1204008318

    Minari isn’t even rippling in the UK at the moment (even with critics).

    Borat 2 similarly didn’t register anywhere (outside of an episode of Gogglebox).

    The Longlist is aimed at trying to imply BAFTA aren’t racially biased in their nominations but it will backfire on them.

    I remember one of the last long lists they had didn’t have every contender in it – instead we had multiple performances from a few films with large ensembles, and British acting icons in roles not registering with awards buzz elsewhere.

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204008348

    not sure about the longlist, but ye i don’t think Bakalova and Youn will end up getting nominated here

    FYC OSCARS

    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)

    THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)

    Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song

    Chloe Zhao for Director

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    #1204008517
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    PeytonKawai
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    #1204008623

    Longlist predictions Rationale behind this is to (generally) go for any BIG British names regardless of the film itself. They always miss out on a couple Oscar hitters – traditionally ones that star non-whites. BEST FILM Ammonite Another Round Da 5 Bloods The Father Herself Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Mank News of the World Nomadland One Night In Miami Promising Young Woman Rocks Soul Tenet Trial of the Chicago 7 BEST DIRECTOR Francis Lee – Ammonite Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods Autumn de Wilde – Emma Florian Zeller – The Father Phyllida Lloyd – Herself George C Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom David Fincher – Mank Philippa Lowthorpe – Misbehaviour Paul Greengrass – News of the World Chloe Zhao – Nomadland Sofia Coppola – On The Rocks Regina King – One Night In Miami Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman Sarah Gavron – Rocks Rose Glass – Saint Maud Jessica Swale – Summerland Christopher Nolan – Tenet Garrett Bradley – Time Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7 BEST LEADING ACTRESS Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy Gemma Arterton – Summerland Bukky Bakray – Rocks Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Claire Dunne – Herself Sally Hawkins – Eternal Beauty Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman Keira Knightley – Misbehaviour Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead Frances McDormand – Nomadland Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman Anya Taylor Joy – Emma Kate Winslet – Ammonite Alfre Woodard – Clemency BEST LEADING ACTOR Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal Kingsley Ben Adir – One Night In Miami Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Colin Firth – Supernova Levan Gelbakhiani – And Then We Danced Henry Golding – Monsoon Eli Goree – One Night In Miami Tom Hanks – News of the World Max Harwood – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie Anthony Hopkins – The Father Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round Gary Oldman – Mank Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian John David Washington – Tenet BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kosar Ali – Rocks Jessie Buckley – Misbehaviour Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of A Woman Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things Olivia Colman – The Father Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal Judi Dench – Blithe Spirit Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian Miranda Hart – Emma Gemma Jones – Ammonite Lesley Manville – Misbehaviour Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite Kirsten Scott Thomas – Rebecca Amanda Seyfried – Mank BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7 Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods Benedict Cumberbatch – The Mauritanian Charles Dance – Mank Richard E Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie D’angelou Osei Kissiedu – Rocks Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7 Bill Murray – On The Rocks Bill Nighy – Emma Josh O’Connor – Emma Paul Raci – Sound of Metal Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7 Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7 David Thewlis – I’m Thinking of Ending Things Stanley Tucci – Supernova BEST BRITISH FILM Ammonite County Lines Emma Everybody’s Talking About Jamie The Father Herself His House Misbehaviour Monsoon One Man & His Shoes Promising Young Woman Rocks Saint Maud Summerland Supernova

     

    And no Saint Maud?? I don’t think so lol

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    Marrowbone
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    #1204008627

    I agree with you – but random thought, didn’t BAFTA nominate Crouching Tiger and Memories of a Geisha in the acting categories when the Oscars didn’t (back when BAFTA had a mind of their own)

    Crouching Tiger is one of my favorite movies of all time. And yes, you are right but that was a long time ago. They probably don’t even remember that they did it.

    ⭐Best Actress - Carey Mulligan, Rosamund Pike

    ⭐Best Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-Jung

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    forwardswill
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    #1204008644

    I didn’t realise BAFTA was actually publishing their longlists. How exciting. Kind of glad to be honest as with the change in system, they would have become as unpredictable as the TV awards equivalent. But at least we’ll have fifteen names to give us a hope of getting close in some categories.

    One thing I do anticipate this year, BAFTA is going to diverge from the Oscars more than it has for decades.

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    estrelas
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    #1204008683

    Anyone predicting big snubs for the longlists?

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    wolfali
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    #1204008694

    There will be performances from British acting veterans and stars in films not garnering buzz in the US that make the long list. That is true. Don’t be surprised to see names like Lesley Manville, Jessie Buckley, Keira Knightley, Josh O’Connor, Anya Taylor-Joy, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Kristin Scott Thomas, Sarah Lancashire etc to pop up on the long-lists.

    However what is worth baring in mind is that the last three slots in each acting category is decided by the BAFTA jury when looking at contenders that place 13th to 16th (the top 12 under the popular vote in each category automatically make the longlist). Yuh-jung Youn is not going to be below 16th when her film is likely getting other nominations and in a year like this I don’t see why Judi Dench in a panned comedy or Gemma Jones in a thankless role in a film that got shut out at the BIFAs will either be ahead of her in the popular vote or chosen by the jury ahead of her.

    The same applies to BIFA nominees Kosar Ali and Jennifer Ehle. If anything they’ll be the surprises from British independent films instead of Dench and Jones.

    It’s really worth baring in mind with both the longlists and the shortlists that this review has been done to promote gender diversity in the director race and racial diversity in the acting races after last year. I feel like it’s more likely one person of colour is shortlisted in each category rather than one long listed in supporting actress.

    I do agree with forwardswill though that some films that are on the Oscars radar will under-perform here (I am only predcictng two to actually over-perform) whilst films that aren’t on the Oscars radar in acting categories will over-perform. I am predicting Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah to under-perform whilst the likes of Emma, Misbehaviour, Babyteeth, Rocks and Saint Maud over-perform (I am predicting those last two to get into Best Film!)

    Minari isn’t even rippling in the UK at the moment (even with critics).

    Yes but Minari hasn’t been released in the UK. It has been seen by BAFTA members (its distributor has had multiple screenings). Just last year there was a similar false equivalence made with Parasite and in 2017 with I, Tonya yet the former won Original Screenplay before any other major group awarded it in that category and the latter got more nominations here than it did anywhere else.

    Borat 2 similarly didn’t register anywhere (outside of an episode of Gogglebox).

    I’m a Borat anti but that is simply far from the truth.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1204008703

    Anyone predicting big snubs for the longlists?

    I will update my long-list again because a lot has changed since I made that so my “snub list” may change but I am currently predicting Glenn Close, Zendaya, Saoirse Ronan, Frank Langella and John David Washington miss the longlist. I also am tempted to take one of Oldman or Mikkelsen out because I forgot to add Henry Golding in and I feel certain he’s getting long listed.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    forwardswill
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    #1204009035

    Anyone predicting big snubs for the longlists?

    I think the longlists will largely be what we’d expect as they’re still the whole bloc of members voting just like previous years. It’s the whittling down from those 15 to the nominations where there’s gonna be some shockers I think.

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    wolfali
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    #1204009079

    I think the longlists will largely be what we’d expect as they’re still the whole bloc of members voting just like previous years. It’s the whittling down from those 15 to the nominations where there’s gonna be some shockers I think.

    What is perhaps worth mentioning is the top 12 under the popular vote will automatically make the longlist in each acting category whilst the last three slots are decided by the jury when looking at what place 13th to 22nd. Its partly why I think some fringe contenders from British Indies like Kosar Ali or Niamh Algar may shock and get on the longlist over Saoirse Ronan for example.

    https://www.bafta.org/about/mission/the-bafta-2020-review

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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