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2021 BAFTA Predictions

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    wolfali
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    #1204057150

    So I finally found a drive link (yes I know the pedantics and annoyance I have caused in my search to find it was bizarre and I apologise for that) for <i>Sound of Metal </i>(with some of the films I usually ask my colleague who is a BAFTA member but the screeners he has are time sensitive and I missed the boat for <i>Sound of Metal </i>and Druk (I did for Nomadland too earlier but I managed to find a drive link and see that one at Christmas))!

    So now I feel confident about making my BAFTA predictions for Supporting <b>Actor </b>even with Supernova (which I don’t think I’m going to see until after awards season) and <i>The Mauritanian </i>(which I’ll be seeing at GFF this week) unseen.

    I do think Paul Raci will make the cut. Yes his performance is more restrained and I agree with forwardswill that his performance does lack (to use their words) “meat on its bones” but it is one that I feel has a certain amount of “snob appeal” (to put it lightly) due to its nuance and I think if we’re talking about people who could potentially coattail from the jury being impressed by another performance in their film I think Raci is the first one who’d do so. There is a certain amount of emotional weight in this performance (and a true supporting one at that!), one that I can see having a narrative behind it and one that may benefit from some sort of catharsis felt during viewing by a jury member. I think it’s also worthy baring in mind that whilst there is a focus on racial diversity in this category, there is also a focus on nominating different types of performances.  There was an outcry last year not only because of the acting nominees being all white but also because of the same old “cameo/small parts” from A listers getting in over work with more novelty. I don’t see Raci’s performance in the same more positive light as others on here but I can see that helping Raci.

    I don’t have him in my predictions centre predictions because I have four 100/1s (all four aren’t happening) who I think can get the 6th slot and unsure which one will get it but if you don’t have Kaluuya first in your actual predictions then you are kidding yourselves. Even if he loses when it comes to the general membership vote and/or he loses the Globe there is no way he is below anyone in the nominations stage when he has by far the showiest and biggest performance in this category (and the most transformative).

    After Kaluuya is where it gets interesting and I am anticipating the prediction centre top 5 to all make it in. I’d argue Sacha Baron Cohen is the most vulnerable (and I have mulled such a snub – how tempting it was to put a dodgy pun here) but even though I see no way he is ahead of Rylace when a jury actually watches his film I do think he’s safe on the basis that his competition have more problems than he does. This is probably the weakest category (which is ironic because each of the other three are incredibly strong) this year.

    Benedict Cumberbatch I see is predicted for the 6th slot and whilst the trailer implied a scene-stealing performance from him and he would have certainly happened under the old system, I hear his role is smaller significantly in both quantity and dramatic weight in comparison to Rahim and Foster’s. I shall make a decision whether to rule him out or not when I see the film on Saturday. Whilst it will be hard to see a jury actually watch <i>Da 5 Bloods </i>and vote for Chadwick Boseman’s performance over the one given by Clarke Peters, I wouldn’t put it past the jury nominating him. Perhaps I am self-adjusting too much here because I saw the film before Boseman’s passing but I feel like there is a certain amount of symbolism that may be elicited from his performance under another watch by the jury. This is a man who gave two strong performances in the final stage of his life and that won’t be ignored. Bo Burnham and David Strathairn are great in their films and I can see them potentially surprising at the Oscars but their performances are too restrained and small and that’s in comparison to some of the other smaller performances like the one delivered by Keoghan. I am currently going with Keoghan for the final slot but I am very tempted to slot in Tucci even though I haven’t seen Supernova. It’s worth baring in mind that outside of British film he is the only long-list for his film and that signifies to me the possibility he could have been “saved” by the nominations jury. From what I can gather he plays a person with Alzheimers (quite baity awards wise) but his film is cold and that could impact him.

    This could be the one place Alan Kim pops up but are they really going to nominate another child actor and one who isn’t from Rocks?

    1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
    2. Leslie Odom-Jr., One Night in Miami 
    3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
    5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    6. Barry Keoghan, Calm with Horses

    7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova
    8. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
    9. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
    10. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Mauritanian

    11. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    12. David Strathairn, Nomadland
    13. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    14. Alan Kim, Minari
    15. Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204057389

    The points are only a tiebreaker. If there were only two categories and two predictors, the user who gets both categories right for a total of two points ranks ahead of the user who gets a trillion points on one category, but has an incorrect prediction for the other.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204057392

    I actually can’t believe you have as loud a performance as Frank Langella’s in last place.

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    wolfali
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    #1204057411

    It’s a loud performance that is true. But I don’t buy that they’ll nominate three performers from the same film in one category. Especially one whose performance can arguably be deemed a simple villainous characterisation without any layer or nuance beyond that.

    He’s not last (that was an accidental oversight when I was ranking the last six so thank you for pointing out that out to me) but I don’t see him happening in any universe. Could be wrong but I don’t even see Eddie Redmayne getting in and I feel certain he’s third in line.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    forwardswill
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    #1204057474

    Each to their own as always but I don’t see why Redmayne would be ahead. This isn’t the branch at large after all.

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    wolfali
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    #1204057509

    Lead performance with more emotional weight whilst still having its own showy moments. I don’t see either getting nominated but I personally feel fairly confident Redmayne is ahead (I preferred Langella to the lot apart from Rylance tbh).

    If I’m hones I am really struggling with that last slot. So whilst I am ruling out the two from Chicago 7 I have in the lower half of my predictions, I won’t rule out slotting one of them in (or even Kim or Burnham) because really that 6th slot is wide open. The performances in this category feel very weak when it comes to the “loud” factor outside of around three of them.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204058919

    Is there anyone who has seen Supernova (I have neither received a screener for it nor can I find one) who can comment as to the loudness of Tucci’s performance?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Lucas
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    #1204059103

    Is there anyone who has seen Supernova (I have neither received a screener for it nor can I find one) who can comment as to the loudness of Tucci’s performance?

    Very natural, contained performance. That movie has zero awards appeal, I understand why nobody’s been pushing for it.

    FYC

    Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

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    wolfali
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    #1204059845

    It will take a while before I can give a ranking for Best Supporting Actress as I still have Foster (who I’ll see on Saturday), Zengel, Chopra (both of whom I’ll see soon) and Madekwe (whose film I have no idea how to see which is really undermining my predictions) still to see but I have thought how about moving away from the juried awards and talking about Best Film?

    The only categories this year that have changed the way they’re voting are acting and directing (they are of course juried in the second stage of nominations). Best Film and all the other categories are still membership/branch voted upon.

    Therefore I will be quite surprised to see the Globe 5 actually miss (especially with Minari snubbed) because it feels inevitable (especially with Saint Maud and Rocks snubbed) that they’ll copy and paste.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204059856

    It will take a while before I can give a ranking for Best Supporting Actress as I still have Foster (who I’ll see on Saturday), Zengel, Chopra (both of whom I’ll see soon) and Madekwe (whose film I have no idea how to see which is really undermining my predictions) still to see but I have thought how about moving away from the juried awards and talking about Best Film? The only categories this year that have changed the way they’re voting are acting and directing (they are of course juried in the second stage of nominations). Best Film and all the other categories are still membership/branch voted upon. Therefore I will be quite surprised to see the Globe 5 actually miss (especially with Minari snubbed) because it feels inevitable (especially with Saint Maud and Rocks snubbed) that they’ll copy and paste.

    Reminds me how beneficial the jury is this year to the POCs from the above mentioned films. No minari noms except Foreign Language probably, If we didn’t have a jury this year.

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    Lady Bird Ronan
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    #1204059969

    1. Daniel Kaluuya, Sound of Metal

    Oop

    FYC

    Picture: "Minari"
    Director: Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"
    Actor: Delroy Lindo, "Da 5 Bloods"
    Actress: Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"
    Supporting Actor: Glynn Turman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
    Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, "Minari"

    "Don't be a Republican" - Lady Bird Ronan

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    wolfali
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    #1204064700

    So I saw The Mauritanian and yeah Tahar Rahim isn’t going to miss the nomination.

    I think I am going to take Benedict Cumberbatch out of my predictions though.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204064718

    So I saw The Mauritanian and yeah Tahar Rahim isn’t going to miss the nomination.

    That’s what I said. He was terrific especially in those scenes where he’s getting tortured.

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    wolfali
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    #1204064733

    This performance felt like one that was quite literally overcome with emotional dramatic weight. I will be surprised if a performance this showy and nuanced failed to make the cut (especially when BAFTA are trying to be more diverse in their picks).

    I will say though that I am very conflicted around Foster’s chances of a nomination here. Under the acting branch vote she’d be a lock and I anticipate The Mauritanian will garner some tech noms along with a nomination by the jury for Rahim but Foster? I don’t know.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204066952

    So yeah I’ve decided to take Foster out. It’s an excellent performance and at the moment is the runner up in my personal awards (same with Rahim) but I don’t know whether the jury will gravitate towards this performance when the role isn’t undeniably showy (Foster does make the most of it) and the mandate of the jury is to include more diversity in their picks (whilst still chasing some Oscar contenders) and a two time Oscar winner in a film that is unlikely to get anything more than 2 acting Oscar nominations is not what I think a jury will lean towards. I guess it might help her film has been long-listed so many times but idk. This jury could either completely mirror the choices the television jury has made in the past or mirror the out of box yet conventional and mainstream choices BAFTA made in the late 00s, early 10s (Alfred Molina, Carey Mulligan). Rahim is 100% in though. I hope I’m wrong about Foster though because it’s an excellent performance and it’s the only non Yuh-Jung Youn performance I am passionate about in this category.

    Whilst I still have three performances unseen (Chopra, Madekwe, Zengel) I am feeling weirdly confident in my current predicted lineup of Algar, Ali, Bakalova, Colman, Ehle and Youn.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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