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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 2)

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    Jays
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    But Netflix also has Hillbilly Elegy and a few other potential contenders, so eventually they’re going to have to pick one and stick to it if they want that BP win.

    Hillbilly Elegy is crowd pleasing but I can’t see it as a BP winner. It could also face backlash if it does somehow garner front runner status because of how they potentially handle the politics of it all.

    I honestly think Mank and Da 5 Bloods will be Netflix’s #1 and #2, as of right now. Hillbilly will be an acting and screenplay player. I’d feel confident in it’s BP chances if it wins the TIFF audience award, which wouldn’t surprise me actually.

    Blonde is apparently very inaccessible, according to people who have read the script. Ana de Armas could maybe happen if she really has critics backing and if the film is some undeniable masterpiece.

    I don’t have much faith in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. George C. Wolfe hasn’t directed an acclaimed film and the writer has only written one TV movie. There’s also not much pedigree there, in terms of the technical aspects of the film.

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things is interesting. Kaufman is a genius and an Oscar winner, but that film could also be too inaccessible. It does sound like something that would critics would get behind though and the cast is great. Buckley is probably going to fully breakout with awards sometime too as well.

    Those seems like the logical options, with regards to which films they possibly push for awards. So out of those, I’d say (as of right now) their priorities would be – 1. Mank 2. Da 5 Bloods 3. Hillbilly Elegy 4. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (could be higher if it’s raved) 5. Blonde 6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.

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    abelfenty
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    First trailer of The French Dispatch has been released:

    https://youtu.be/TcPk2p0Zaw4

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    Seven
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    First trailer of The French Dispatch has been released: https://youtu.be/TcPk2p0Zaw4

    This is so agressively Wes Anderson-ish. But I guess we have our 2021 Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy winner

    HFPA is gonna eat this up

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by Seven.
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    Matthew anzalone
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    First trailer of The French Dispatch has been released: https://youtu.be/TcPk2p0Zaw4

    Its a definitely wes anderson film. It looks great. A movie about foreign journalists, The hollywood foreign press is gonna eat this movie up.

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    Nicco
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    Easily there’s no way it is having acting nominees and it doesn’t seem as brillant as GBH. So I don’t think he is going to be took in consideration for the major categories at the oscars. Anyway I read it is R rated. That’s interesting and surprising actually.

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    Jays
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    First trailer of The French Dispatch has been released: https://youtu.be/TcPk2p0Zaw4

    The visuals look fantastic. The rest of it looks good. I will say it all probably works better in context. It looks like a film that’s hard to cut a trailer for.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    First trailer of The French Dispatch has been released: https://youtu.be/TcPk2p0Zaw4

    Looks fun. I feel like the trailer was sort of all over the place though, as I couldn’t really follow everything with a lot not seeming to connect or needing more context. The fact that it showed a decent amount both in color and in black in white didn’t help. I don’t know. Maybe I’m just stupid. Anyway, Anderson’s a delight and I’ll be excited to see this. Based on the performances in the trailer, I don’t know who will have the best shot at an acting nomination. They all look good, but it seems like it’s very much an ensemble picture based on this, as no one performer truly stood out from the rest. I guess I’ll see if that’s the case or not in the actual film.

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    fefface
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    Its a definitely wes anderson film. It looks great. A movie about foreign journalists, The hollywood foreign press is gonna eat this movie up.

    Perhaps, but this particular category is going to be absolutely STACKED next year.

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    DevonshireGold
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    Anthony Hopkins is frontrunner for Best Actor for me.

    I’d put a bet on Will Smith for King Richard as well. Its Blacklist script shouldn’t be discounted either. Release date is Nov 25.

    Don’t sleep on Amazon’s Louis Wain – really baity role for Benedict Cumberbatch in another period feature after Imitation Game. I’m not sure if the movie has the heft for other categories but Cumberbatch could certainly be in conversation if it debuts well at TIFF. But it could be this year’s Aeronauts, which Amazon gave up on after so-so reviews.

    What other films does Amazon have this year?

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    Matthew anzalone
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    Perhaps, but this particular category is going to be absolutely STACKED next year.

    Oh im with you. In picture comedy I currently have the French dispatch, In the heights, On the rocks, The prom, and West side story.

    Anthony Hopkins is frontrunner for Best Actor for me. I’d put a bet on Will Smith for King Richard as well. Its Blacklist script shouldn’t be discounted either. Release date is Nov 25. Don’t sleep on Amazon’s Louis Wain – really baity role for Benedict Cumberbatch in another period feature after Imitation Game. I’m not sure if the movie has the heft for other categories but Cumberbatch could certainly be in conversation if it debuts well at TIFF. But it could be this year’s Aeronauts, which Amazon gave up on after so-so reviews. What other films does Amazon have this year?

    They also have Annette which is an musical staring Adam driver and Marion Cottilard. Im not sure how well it would do.

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    fefface
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    They also have Annette which is an musical staring Adam driver and Marion Cottilard. Im not sure how well it would do.

    It has a pair of big names which will help, and Amazon distributing certainly won’t hurt. How well it is received depends pretty much entirely on how off the wall it turns out TBH. Carax is a genius but his work isn’t always the most accessible. However, this is also his English-language debut which may help in that regard.

    We can expect it to bow at Cannes so we’ll have a better idea after that, but even if it’s too niche for BP nods it may get in for score, original song, screenplay, and acting. It is entirely sung through so if the music is good it could be pretty special.

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    musterd
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    Anthony Hopkins is frontrunner for Best Actor for me.

    I’d put a bet on Will Smith for King Richard as well. Its Blacklist script shouldn’t be discounted either. Release date is Nov 25.

    Don’t sleep on Amazon’s Louis Wain – really baity role for Benedict Cumberbatch in another period feature after Imitation Game. I’m not sure if the movie has the heft for other categories but Cumberbatch could certainly be in conversation if it debuts well at TIFF. But it could be this year’s Aeronauts, which Amazon gave up on after so-so reviews.

    What other films does Amazon have this year?

    Louis Wain is also directed by Will Sharpe who created and directed a beautiful little series called Flowers that starred Olivia Colman and Julian Barrett. He’s extremely talented and has a good eye (the cinematography for series 2 especially is gorgeous). Its on Netflix if anybody wants to check it out; PTA was praising it on a podcast interview a couple years back.

    So yeah Louis Wain is worth bookmarking I think. Amazon film division still has a lot to prove though.

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    smurty11
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    I hope Sundance winner Minari can be the first Sundance movie in awhile to be nominated for Best Picture

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    DevonshireGold
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    <p style=”text-align: right;”>A few other movies I think are worth considering, albeit in different categories:</p>

    • The Devil All the Time: has a May 15th release date and difficult subject matter, but could benefit from a Netflix push, particularly acting for Tom Holland (assuming Cherry isn’t released this year).
    • Deep Water: Adrian Lyne’s first movie since 2002’s Unfaithful, which alone is worth considering. Could be an acting showcase for Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas, and will benefit from a November release date, but could be hampered from being under the Fox umbrella.
    • I’m Thinking of Ending Things: It’s a Charlie Kaufman directorial effort, which means it will be either disliked by too many (Synecdoche) or really liked yet underexposed (Anomalisa).

    What do we think of these movies?

     

    I’m a bit baffled by Devil All The Time. It’s got an A-list cast, prestige source material and a director with a solid background. Is it the sort of project that should have been a miniseries?

     

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