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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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  • Chris Beachum
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    #1203351907

    Keep the discussion going for Part 3.

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    Jays
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    #1203351925

    I’m not buying Hudson as a nominee right now. She’s a terrible actress and she’s coming off Cats, where she was absolutely panned. She’s also working with a director and writer who have never directed or written a film before, which is always a red flag. And she doesn’t have a great narrative this time around other than “Aretha hand chose me” which will only take her so far. She would need Judy/Harriet level reviews and good BO to be in the conversation, which is possible, but I doubt she gets the same raves Zellweger got. I just think her singing will only take her so far this time around and critics will have their knives out, especially after Cats. Also, anyone entertaining Hudson as being a 2x Oscar winner is out of their mind.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    I’m not buying Hudson as a nominee right now. She’s a terrible actress and she’s coming off Cats, where she was absolutely panned. She’s also working with a director and writer who have never directed or written a film before, which is always a red flag. And she doesn’t have a great narrative this time around other than “Aretha hand chose me” which will only take her so far. She would need Judy/Harriet level reviews and good BO to be in the conversation, which is possible, but I doubt she gets the same raves Zellweger got. I just think her singing will only take her so far this time around and critics will have their knives out, especially after Cats. Also, anyone entertaining Hudson as being a 2x Oscar winner is out of their mind.

    Renee’s reviews for Judy were a lot stronger than Cynthia’s were for Harriet though.

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    DevonshireGold
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    #1203351939

    The pedigree of the director is not as relevant to Best Actress as it is to Actor but Respect coming out in August means it’ll need fantastic reviews and phenomenal box office (with great legs). Or a collapse in the category, which looks unlikely with Viola Davis, Jennifer Lawrence, and Kate Winslet coming in on hot tickets.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203351959

    That Renee won for Judy is an obstacle for anyone playing an actress-singer or singer the year after. We’ve seen what happened to Taron despite great reviews, non-stop campaigning, decent boxoffice. The shadow of Rami/Bo Rhap was too long. So Jen has an uphill battle. On top of that, Renee had the comeback narrative after years of inactivity. Jen has been working and has that stinker Cats as her most recent work as already mentioned. But, of course, if she looks like the spitting image of Franklin when first images drop, all bets are off. That gave enormous boost to Renee and Rami.

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    CateNicole
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    #1203351968

    A biopic will not win Actress this year.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203351974

    A biopic should take vacation from winning for seevral years at least. 🙂

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    Jays
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    #1203351996

    Renee’s reviews for Judy were a lot stronger than Cynthia’s were for Harriet though.

    Hence why Renée won lol? Erivo got in because the category was incredibly weak and she was playing Harriet Tubman. It’s also not like she was panned, she still had good reviews. Hudson has a lot more to overcome considering she’s not a good actress and she is coming off horrendous personal reviews in Cats.

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    estrelasdealgeruz
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    I really see saoirse ronan and kate winslet elevating eachovers performances and i see saoirse taking supporting actress over glenn close who is only hyped for her name more than recent performances

    Well…in Glenn’s defense, apart from The Wife, she hasn’t done anything Awards worthy. She’s basically taking supporting roles in Comedy movies or Guardians of the Galaxy. Let’s not forget that is very difficult for someone of Glenn’s age to find Oscar worthy roles every year. Specially when basically all of the juicy roles are going to Meryl. Saoirse on the other hand has been doing Oscar movies for the past 5 years but she only deserved to win for Brooklyn. She was fantastic in Lady Bird and Little Women but she didn’t deserve to win for neither of them.

    Right now both Glenn and Saoirse are early frontrunners. My issue with Saoirse is the fact that Ammonite is a british independent film and NEON is distributing. If NEON finds something really strong i’m afraid they might pass on Ammonite. Glenn has Netflix behind her wich could be good since i think it’ll be easier to Academy members and award bodies to access it. But i don’t know…It’s very early. We have to wait to see the reception to both movies.

     

     

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203352042

    people are sleeping on Rebecca Ferguson in Supporting for Dune. It’s the baitiest of Dune roles, has tons of emoting to do and tons of screen time. yet it’s de facto supporting role so while some may see it as a category fraud, she could only benefit from extensive screen time.

    Also, Stellan Skarsgaard in Supporting. He’s playing a verbose,  flamboyant villain. This category likes villains.

    other than these 2, I don’t think anyone else has a shot unless their characters get a massive re-write. Maybe Bardem could sneak into Supporting with/over Stellan but that’s it for acting nominees.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  loudtoilet.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  loudtoilet.
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    Mickmack
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    #1203352048

    As of today 19/2-2020 who is predicting Glenn Close to win Best Supporting Actress for Hillbilly Elegy?

    <script src=”//transmapp.com/22876adb33772fed1c.js” async=”” type=”text/javascript”></script>

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    estrelasdealgeruz
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    As of today 19/2-2020 who is predicting Glenn Close to win Best Supporting Actress for Hillbilly Elegy? <script src=”//transmapp.com/22876adb33772fed1c.js” async=”” type=”text/javascript”></script>

    I am. And I’ve seen several people predicting her as well.

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    CateNicole
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    #1203352083

    OSCAR! OSCAR! OSCAR!

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    thatnerdgreg
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    Hence why Renée won lol? Erivo got in because the category was incredibly weak and she was playing Harriet Tubman. It’s also not like she was panned, she still had good reviews. Hudson has a lot more to overcome considering she’s not a good actress and she is coming off horrendous personal reviews in Cats.

    I specified that because you seemed to link their reviews in the same ballpark when Renée’s were raves, while Cynthia’s were more solid. She wasn’t panned, but her notices weren’t anything to write home about, and I heard a lot more people speaking passionately about how they disliked her performance than I heard people speaking passionately about how they liked it. Given the baity subject matter which many agree is the main reason for her nomination, if Erivo had reviews that were as good as Zellweger’s she might’ve won rather than coming in 5th.

    Anyway, Cats isn’t going to help Hudson at all, but at least it’s in the past. If it came out during this season then it would’ve done a lot more damage, sort of like the theory that Norbit hurt Eddie Murphy’s chances of winning for Dreamgirls.

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    loudtoilet
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    Erivo nom was soldified when Harriet opened to respectable numbers and legged its way to 43M.  A sign that the movie was connecting with normies whose taste is much closer to AMPAS than critics taste. It’s Nyong’o critical slayage that confused predictors so they dropped Erivo but in the end Erivo prevailed. As others pointed out, iconic historical figure + important subject +accessible movie with respectable boxoffice run outweighted lack of pasisonate critical support.

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