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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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    Luke Dias
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    I think Last Night in SoHo is going to be great but also have nothing the Academy will bite into. The movie’s being advertised as a psychological sci-fi horror, and we all know how the Academy LOVES those genres, #sarcasm. Add to that its September release, and the only thing that I think can save it from being this year’s A Quiet Place (aside from, you know, A Quite Place 2), i.e. only getting technical nods (as with Baby Driver) is if it’s on the level of The Silence of The Lambs. At least we all know it’ll be great: the film may be somewhat of a risk for Wright (since this is probably his first film that doesn’t have a comedic angle to it), but he’s also developed a level of quality that people can get behind anything he puts out and expect it to be great.

    All of this said, if it does turn out to be that good, I’m totally stanning Wright, McKenzie, Taylor-Joy AND Smith. It’s about time they got the love they deserve from the Academy.

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    24fanatic
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    Early Prediction for Best Director:

    1. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
    2. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
    3. David Fincher – Mank
    4. Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy
    5. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    I think given the subject matter of his film and his legendary status as a filmmaker, Spike will receive his 2nd Director nom and might even have a shot at the win. Spielberg is daring to do something he has never done before (a musical) and is remaking one of the biggest classics. If his film succeeds, he will definitely be a contender. Fincher is doing a very Academy-friendly film, so that could help him. Howard will have Netflix behind him and will he looking for his first nom since 2008. Given the demand for recognition of female directors and the fact that Chloe’s last film The Rider was stunning, I’m hoping that Frances McDormand’s performance in Nomadland will lead to Zhao being recognized.

    I’m assuming that Nightmare Alley will not be ready in time for this year.

    I also think everyone might be jumping the gun on films like The French Dispatch (which could be really weird and only a screenplay contender) and Dune (could be way too sci-fi for voters).

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    JackO
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    3 netflix films? They struggled this year with 2 solid contenders. It helps they are much bigger names than Baumbach, but still.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    I’d just like to point out after seeing a few people predicting that Rita Moreno will get in for West Side Story either at the Oscars or the Globes, that idea sounds extremely unlikely to me. She’s playing a new role which is a basically just a genderbent version of the character Doc, a role that’s small and very un-showy. If someone from West Side Story gets into Supporting Actress, it’s likely to be Ariana DeBose as Anita, the role Moreno won her Oscar for. She’s a great rising musical theatre star, and Anita is historically a big fan favorite, getting some wonderful moments to showcase the actress with acting that’s both comedic and dramatic, along with the chance to sing and dance to some wonderful songs. You’ll be hard pressed to find a production of the show where the actor playing Doc makes a bigger impact than Anita, or really any of the five main characters. I don’t know if DeBose will get nominated or not, but I think the situation is somewhat similar to Little Women’s Supporting Actress chances. Moreno is Streep, being a legendary and respected actress in a small part, while DeBose is Pugh, being an up an comer who has a large role with a lot of opportunities to show off in the film. The only way I can see Moreno get in is if they make some enormous changes to this role outside of flipping the gender and the name.

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    Cordelia
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    3 netflix films? They struggled this year with 2 solid contenders. It helps they are much bigger names than Baumbach, but still.

    We’ll have to see which films are this year’s equivalent to The Laundromat being a non-starter, Dolemite is my Name going nowhere, or The Two Popes getting nods but not Best Picture nominations.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    MrOceanBlueEyes
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    Director for me would look something like this:

    Christopher Nolan, Tenet         
    Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks     
    David Fincher, Mank                 
    Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

    Although this has nothing to do with it ‘Mank’ is a terrible name for a movie.

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by MrOcean.
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    Bird
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    Last Night in SOHo strikes me as the cool/loved film that only gets a screenplay nod come Oscar morning a la “Knives Out” “The Lobster” and “Nightcrawler”. If it pops up anywhere else, it’ll be in costume design, since the story takes place in the 1960s London Fashion world.

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    fefface
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    Has SPC set a release date for The Father yet? IIRC It’s been a while since a movie out of Sundance has carried any real momentum through to the Oscars so I’m intrigued as to when it’s coming out.

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    loudtoilet
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    I wonder that if Ana de Armas has the performance and the critical acclaim could she win like Renée this year? Beloved icon who was also used by Hollywood only to have a tragic ending. Or could end up like Egerton? Also I think Dune is getting technical noms but might fail in big categories. WB is definitely gonna prioritize Nolan in director.

    They are going to prioratize both but there’s no way they dump Denis whose movie is Part One and therefore WB has a chance to ROTK the whole thing with Part Two. getting in for Part One creates Due 4 Win narrative second time around.

    I’m aslo confident that Ferguson could get Supporting nod as the most likely acting nod for Dune.I’d be shocked if Chalamet got in for that “character” unless some heavy re-writer took place.

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by loudtoilet.
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    Jays
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    Netflix movies do good in terms of nominations, and people actually watch them. I’m confident in de Armas getting a nomination for now especially if she goes Comedy at the Globes, but win is a stretch, I don’t see a Netflix actor winning anytime soon, when neither Driver nor Johansson managed to do so. Dern is a very unique case.

    Blonde is NOT a comedy lol. I think people are overestimating de Armas’ chances. That movie is apparently extremely inaccessible. She’ll need to be an overwhelming critics favorite to have a shot at a nomination, and even then Academy members might be turned off by the nature of the film. It’s not a standard biopic.

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    loudtoilet
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    overwhelming critical support didn’t help Lupita get even a nom. Critics awards phase is the one I hate the most. People always make a big deal out of it when time and time again it proved mostly irrelevant for both noms and wins.

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    Jays
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    overwhelming critical support didn’t help Lupita get even a nom. Critics awards phase is the one I hate the most. People always make a big deal out of it when time and time again it proved mostly irrelevant for both noms and wins.

    Which is why I said it might not even happen if she does get that.

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    loudtoilet
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    Which is why I said it might not even happen if she does get that.

    Yes, I was in agreement with you. Just had to mention Lupita for those who overpredict Ana because they think her movie is a classic accessible biopic a la Judy.

    Re: Last Night in Soho. Agreed with everyone predicting Thomasin and/or Anya. There’s always “Welcome to the Club” ingenue spot in both Actress and Supporting so they fit the bill due to acclaimed work that got un-nominated in previous years.

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by loudtoilet.
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    fefface
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    Netflix movies do good in terms of nominations, and people actually watch them. I’m confident in de Armas getting a nomination for now especially if she goes Comedy at the Globes, but win is a stretch, I don’t see a Netflix actor winning anytime soon, when neither Driver nor Johansson managed to do so. Dern is a very unique case.

    Why would she go Comedy when it’s not a comedy?

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    DevonshireGold
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    Netflix movies do good in terms of nominations, and people actually watch them. I’m confident in de Armas getting a nomination for now especially if she goes Comedy at the Globes, but win is a stretch, I don’t see a Netflix actor winning anytime soon, when neither Driver nor Johansson managed to do so. Dern is a very unique case.

    Joaquin Phoenix was unbeatable this year and Renee Zellweger was tough competition too. Scarlett could have beaten Olivia Colman (& Glenn) last year. If Netflix were releasing The Father they could have pushed through a win for Hopkins (again he seems to be the one to beat). There’s been talk of Viola Davies being superb in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Zellwegger proved the Academy still loves those roles.

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