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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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  • tsc
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    Heptapod
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    #1203362833

    The Last Duel is going to flop SO hard. By the end of the year it’ll be completely laughable that we were predicting it as a real contender.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    Driver looks fine, but Damon and Affleck look silly. Maybe they’ll look better in the actual film. If it flops, then that’s really bad news for Affleck. I figured the reason he and Damon teamed up again was so that he could have a sort of comeback. If he can’t bank on Damon to get him back into critical good graces, then he’s in a pretty bad spot career wise right now.

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    BICTH
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    #1203362849

    well there’s one we can take off the costume and makeup shortlist

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203362857

    I find it interesting that the article said Affleck was originally going to be Driver’s role. They clearly must’ve realized that he was too he wouldn’t sell very well so they went with a better and more bankable actor whose career isn’t currently shit.

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    fefface
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    #1203362873

    Yeah the set photos are interesting, but period pieces rarely if ever look good in low quality pap pics.

    We shall see. Outside of Affleck it has a cast/team that usually make good decisions so I’m trying to reserve judgement.

    Driver looks even wider than usual in armour. It really emphasises his hugeness.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  fefface.
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    loudtoilet
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    #1203362887

    The Last Duel is going to flop SO hard. By the end of the year it’ll be completely laughable that we were predicting it as a real contender.

    I’ve been trying to say this politely for weeks but thanks for calling a spade spade. Scott is hit and miss. Medieval movies haven’t been profitable unless they have Elves in it. The subject is ripe for takedowns. It’s freakin Disney. They reportedly chickened out of properly campaigning Jojo Rabbit cause some people raised objections during early screenings. They are going to fill their panties when film twitter gets on this movie’s case (rape, male director, everyone white, etc). heck, they removed a kiss from Mulan cause someone in China objected during the test screening or something. They are the most focus group-driven “OMG what’s X,Y,Z gonna say?” studio on the planet. No way they know how to handle this thing. I feel sorry for the cast cause they wanted to work with Scott (who wouldn’t) but that’s reality.

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    fefface
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    #1203362893

    I’ve been trying to say this politely for weeks but thanks for calling a spade spade. Scott is hit and miss. Medieval movies haven’t been profitable unless they have Elves in it. The subject is ripe for takedowns. It’s freakin Disney. They reportedly chickened out of properly campaigning Jojo Rabbit cause some people raised objections during early screenings. They are going to fill their panties when film twitter gets on this movie’s case (rape, male director, everyone white, etc). heck, they removed a kiss from Mulan cause someone in China objected during the test screening or something. They are the most focus group-driven “OMG what’s X,Y,Z gonna say?” studio on the planet. No way they know how to handle this thing. I feel sorry for the cast cause they wanted to work with Scott (who wouldn’t) but that’s reality.

    It has a male director sure but is being at least partly written by a great female screenwriter (Nicole Holofcener). Apparently it also has an inclusion rider so while we’ve only seen pictures of white cast members so far we can probably assume not everyone is white.

    All that said its definitely extremely tricky subject matter that could be difficult to overcome even if the film is good.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203362901

    It has a male director sure but is being at least partly written by a great female screenwriter (Nicole Holofcener). Apparently it also has an inclusion rider so while we’ve only seen pictures of white cast members so far we can probably assume not everyone is white.

    Well, that’s some protection from outrage so thanks for this info. the rest still stands. IMO, the studio is the biggest problem.

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    Luke Dias
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    #1203362902

    I’ve only recently heard of Next Goal Wins and already I’m pretty excited. I don’t think it’ll get as far as Jojo did, but it should do fairly well. I think Fassbender might be the most likely shot, as the more lighthearted good guy role could be seen as him breaking typecasting (not to mention the overdue narrative he’s accumulated over the decade). I can’t say anything on Moss and Hammer without knowing the roles they play, although the former could develop an exposure narrative thanks to Shirley’s and The Invisible Man’s good reviews and The French Dispatch most definitely following suit. I am very curious, though, how they will treat Kaimana. The Academy will probably give Kaimana a nomination for #OscarsSoWhite ‘s sake, but here’s the thing: Kaimana is a fa’afafine, basically the Samoan version of a non-binary person. Of course, the Academy has never nominated a non-binary person before, and while the real-life person they’re playing apparently goes by female pronouns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy will find itself in a rut on where to put them.

    As for The Last Duel, those photos look a bit too grainy for me to really make an opinion. For now, Driver looks fine (no doubt helped by naturally long hair and beard), I can’t clearly see Damon’s face, and Affleck looks hilarious in a blonde wig. Honestly, them wearing anything from a makeup perspective was inevitably going to be the subject of ridicule, as is the case with pretty much every celebrity – not just actor, CELEBRITY – that tries to do so (e.g. Brad Pitt in Troy, Tobey Maguire in Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas). Also, we haven’t seen Comer yet, and most of us are pointing to her as the most likely nomination. Knowing Scott’s recent track record, I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be less Kingdom of Heaven Director’s Cut and more Kingdom of Heaven Theatrical Cut, but I also wouldn’t be surprised about vice versa, so I really have to see more. If I had to guess, the movie will be “just fine” (~70% on RT), Comer and the costumes get nominated, the makeup gets a Razzie nod, and that’s about it.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203362905

    Comer should look fine for she did Medieval stuff in UK and has the look. Driver looks pretty authentic for the period too at least on these early images. hard to say about Damon for too grainy but Batffleck is ridic.

    Comer in the White Princess

    https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/jodiecomerelizabethofyork3.jpg?w=1000&h=563&crop=1

     

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203362927

    yeah, Affleck had to drop out of the co-lead role due to scheduling conflict with that erotic thriller he’s filming with Ana de Armas. Nothing to do with bankability.

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    Luke Dias
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    #1203362931

    A bit of an appendage to my The Last Duel comment: I don’t think Disney will shoot the movie in the foot. It may deal with heavy subject matter, but the film is decidedly anti-rape, so Disney won’t be scratching their heads the way they did with Jojo Rabbit (not to mention Jojo’s winning success might inspire Disney to take more risks). If there’s a Ben Affleck movie that Disney will have a hard time not being irritated about, it would be Deep Water, not only because erotic thrillers are decidedly non-family friendly but also because erotic thrillers in general have been an extinct genre for well over a decade (though the Academy won’t mind, seeing as how it’s based on a Patricia Highsmith novel).

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    loudtoilet
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    yeah, I still can’t wrap my mind around the fact that Disney is making an erotic thriller with nudity.

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    The2ndAvenger
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    #1203362986

    Emma got surprisingly good reviews, so is a Production Design and/or a Costume Design nod feasible?

     

    I’m kinda bullish on The Last Duel, for no particular reason.

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