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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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    thatnerdgreg
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    Dune will win for 2 movies with part 2. This is going to be LOTR of this decade. Only without back to back filming. You can always screencap this and rub it in if I’m wrong. But for now, given the source and talent involved, I’m ultra high on its propsect.

    Dune isn’t going to be this decade’s Lord of the Rings. You’re forgetting that Lord of the Rings was a finished universally beloved story. Dune’s original author died and his son tried to end the story in a way that upset enough fans that some authors such as George RR Martin have done legal work to make sure no one finishes their story for them even if they die before completing it so the same thing wouldn’t happen to them.
    Unfortunately for Martin, he didn’t realize that the TV show would ultimately end up doing this to him.

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by thatnerdgreg.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by thatnerdgreg.
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    Luke Dias
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    I think what he means by this decade’s LOTR is that it will be a multi-part blockbuster franchise based on a classic novel, with auteur control  and a rather poor adaptation lurking in the background.

    I don’t agree with this though, since LOTR had a whole trilogy while this is a duology, and Villenueve doesn’t have as much control as Jackson did.

    That said, I don’t get why everyone here is thinking it’s going to flop, or at least not be anywhere near a viable contender. This is Denis Villenueve we’re talking about, the man who turned out a Best Picture nomination for a movie about learning to speak an alien language. The Academy always tries to do one or two “popular films” in the Best Picture race (Gravity, Fury Road, The Martian, Arrival, Black Panther, etc.), and Dune could very well be that movie. Right now the only thing I think can steal away its thunder is Tenet, but since Dune is releasing later even the great Nolan might not be able to make a dent.

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    RichardAniston
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    #1203355681

    Best Song is between No Time To Die and the new song LMM is writing for the In the Heights film. Both have story lines that gives both songs a good chance to win.

    Billie is the hot thing in music (fresh off of five Grammy wins) and the academy may want to award her while she is shining bright. Miranda is an Oscar away from EGOT and they may want him to finally get it.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203355713

    SHOOK that The Last Thing He Wanted just straight up dropped on Netflix. There goes that….

    I mean, with those Sundance reviews, what would you expect? Netflix is going to try and focus themselves more this year after dropping the ball.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203355749

    Dune will win for 2 movies with part 2. This is going to be LOTR of this decade. Only without back to back filming. You can always screencap this and rub it in if I’m wrong. But for now, given the source and talent involved, I’m ultra high on its propsect.

    Franchise films like LOTR don’t win a massive amount above the line anymore. Even Joker and The Dark Knight only won for performances, and Mad Max didn’t win anything above-the-line despite universal raves. The academy prefers to give those awards to smaller awards season films now, especially the ones with social commentary and political messages.

    You’re also not taking into account that LOTR was a massively successful franchise: earning $3 Billion worldwide. Dune is probably going to bomb, since it doesn’t have a massive following and the first film was a flop. And also Denis Villinuve’s last franchise film with a massive budget, Blade Runner 2049, suffered the same fate: no one who wasn’t a classic movie fan or cinephile cared about it. He’s just not a director who has huge draw power and he prefers quality over marketability.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    LLLhawks
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    #1203355901

    Man, watching TLTHW on netflix and it is so boring. I am trying to finish it for Anne’s sake. Lol. What was the last Hathaway movie that was a successful BO hit?

    I mean, with those Sundance reviews, what would you expect? Netflix is going to try and focus themselves more this year after dropping the ball.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    Tooner
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    Man, watching TLTHW on netflix and it is so boring. I am trying to finish it for Anne’s sake. Lol. What was the last Hathaway movie that was a successful BO hit?

    Oceans 8 did well right?

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    Matthew anzalone
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    #1203355937

    Oceans 8 did well right?

    It made 45 million in its first weekend. So yes.

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    fefface
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    #1203355943

    Annette has a confirmed Cannes premiere – and what looks like a producing credit for Adam Driver:

    https://twitter.com/andreacorsini_/status/1230812386166288384?s=21

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by fefface.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by fefface.
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    Luke Dias
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    @John Berchmans No one is saying that Dune is going to win the “above-the-line” awards. LOTR didn’t even do that until the final entry, and it’s probably the only blockbuster movie to do so to begin with.

    Also, it probably won’t make nearly a billion each, just because of the current movie climate. But it bombing? I wouldn’t be so sure. Most people don’t even remember the David Lynch version, and Dune has had a MASSIVE following for decades. In terms of popularity, it’s pretty much the Game of Thrones of space opera. 2049 suffered from under-marketing, an R-rating for a high budget movie, and a lack of extreme word-of-mouth. Dune could potentially overcome these.

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    Cordelia
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    Annette has a confirmed Cannes premiere https://twitter.com/andreacorsini_/status/1230812386166288384?s=21

    Ooh, looking forward to this. Wondering if Adam Driver can leverage momentum from Marriage Story to become a big player this season. It’ll probably be too unconventional a movie to be a big Best Picture contender unless there’s a shift in direction, but this seems like a performance contender.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    Luke Dias
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    I’m glad I wasn’t able to get tickets for TLTHW at Sundance. I missed out on actually going to Park City, but clearly it was worth it.

    Still though, a real shame for the people involved. Not just Hathaway, but Rees and Dafoe too.

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    John Berchmans
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    Also, it probably won’t make nearly a billion each, just because of the current movie climate. But it bombing? I wouldn’t be so sure. Most people don’t even remember the David Lynch version, and Dune has had a MASSIVE following for decades. In terms of popularity, it’s pretty much the Game of Thrones of space opera. 2049 suffered from under-marketing, an R-rating for a high budget movie, and a lack of extreme word-of-mouth. Dune could potentially overcome these.

    We’ll see. I think it has the potential to do extremely well thanks to it’s Christmas release date, since it’s only other big-budget competition is the doomed Uncharted flick (though Eddie Murphy and West Side Story could overperform). I hope people go see this one. I’ll be watching it in theaters for sure, on the biggest screen I can find.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    BICTH
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    We’ll see. I think it has the potential to do extremely well thanks to it’s Christmas release date, since it’s only other big-budget competition is the doomed Uncharted flick

    that’s the one with tom holland right? boy has he got a slate full of potential flops coming up, why can’t he do some more dramatic stuff that he’s clearly capable of

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203356144

    that’s the one with tom holland right? boy has he got a slate full of potential flops coming up, why can’t he do some more dramatic stuff that he’s clearly capable of

    Hollywood will do anything for another box-office magnet. Clearly not working out, though. I’d agree Tom Holland is not choosing the right future projects.

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