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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 4)

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    Stank83
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    #1203493212

    As I said in another thread, Ammonite is more likely to be a 2021 release.

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    Jays
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    #1203493220

    Right now, my very early predictions (I haven’t enough contenders for all the above the line categories):

    BEST PICTURE
    “Da 5 Bloods”, Netflix
    “In the Heights”, Warner Bros.
    “Mank”, Netflix
    “Minari”, A24
    “News of the World”, Universal
    “Soul”, Disney/Pixar
    “Tenet”, Warner Bros.
    “The French Dispatch”, Searchlight Pictures
    “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, Paramount

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Wes Anderson, “The French Dispatch”
    Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
    David Fincher, “Mank”
    Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods”
    ——————

    BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Sasha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
    Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
    Bill Murray, “On the Rocks”
    Gary Oldman, “Mank”
    Steven Yeun, “Minari”
    RUNNER-UP: Tom Hanks, “News of the World” & Ben Affleck, “The Way Back”

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
    Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
    Rashida Jones, “On the Rocks”
    Saoirse Ronan, “Ammonite”
    Kate Winslet, “Ammonite”
    RUNNER-UP: Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma.” & Scarlett Johansson, “Black Widow” (à la Weaver for “Aliens”)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
    Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods”
    Tom Burke, “Mank”
    Alex Sharp, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
    ———————

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Olivia Colman, “The Father”
    Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
    Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
    Olga Merediz, “In the Heights”
    ———————-

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    “Da 5 Bloods”
    “On the Rocks”
    “Mank”
    “Minari”
    “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
    RUNNER-UP: “The French Dispatch” & “Tenet”

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    “Hillbilly Elegy”
    “News of the World”
    “The Father”
    “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
    ————

    In the Heights is coming out next summer now. Also I doubt that Billie Holiday movie will be released this year. I’m pretty sure it has no distributor, and if there are no festivals then it’s chances of getting picked up are very slim.

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203493275

    In the Heights is coming out next summer now. Also I doubt that Billie Holiday movie will be released this year. I’m pretty sure it has no distributor, and if there are no festivals then it’s chances of getting picked up are very slim.

    I’m sorry to hear that… This opens the way to Spielberg’s “West Side Story” to be “the musical of the year”. What a pitty, “In the Heights” seems to fresh

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203493279

    I like that you’ve predicted Andra Day for Best Actress, and the US vs. Billie Holiday for Adapted Screenplay. Not many people are talking about this movie, but it was directed by Lee Daniels and written by Suzan-Lori Parks (who won a Pulitzer for Drama), so I see some big potential there.

    I think if it manages to get a limited release (which might be hard since I don’t know what’s going to happen to Fall film festival), I think it has the potential to get some critics love and further award recognition. Lee Daniels directed “Precious” (Best Picture Oscar nominee) and in spite of “The Paperboy” and “The Butler” failed to get some love from the AMPAS, they featured great award-buzzy performances (Kidman and Oprah Winfrey respectively)

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203493470

    Pretty sure I’ve asked this before, but for anyone who’s the historical Trial of the Chicago Seven, what roles would you say are most likely to attract awards attention?

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203493544

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/oscars-2021-postponed-possibly-1234610694/ AMPAS considers postponing the 2021 Academy Awards.

    I don’t understand the purpose of postponing the academy awards. The virus most likely won’t be a problem by February (it will likely either have a vaccine or become endemic) and it’s extremely unlikely they do a combined ceremony in 2022 or extend the eligibility window. A ceremony in summer would just suck for all the studios who would have to campaign 6-7 month old films and voters who would have to watch hundreds of 6-7 month old films instead of new ones. These talks just seem more like a show of good social norms than anything else. I doubt anything will come of them.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203493843

    Pretty sure I’ve asked this before, but for anyone who’s the historical Trial of the Chicago Seven, what roles would you say are most likely to attract awards attention?

    I would say Abbie Hoffman (Sasha Baron Cohen) and maybe Bobby Seale (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II). Seale particularly can be juicy if they play with the trial’s racial issues… And they got Alex Sharp (a Tony Award-winning actor graduated from Julliard) for playing Rennie Davis, one of the principal organizers of the anti-war protests and he was severly beaten by the police… so, it could be a great part too

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    mansos
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    Feb 16th, 2020
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    #1203494028

    Pretty sure I’ve asked this before, but for anyone who’s the historical Trial of the Chicago Seven, what roles would you say are most likely to attract awards attention?

     

    I’d say Abbie Hoffman (Sacha Baron Cohen) and Jerry Rubin (Jeremy Strong) will be standouts considering what they did during the trials. It’s gonna be so fun to watch. Plus Bobby Seale (Yahya Abdul-Mateen) because of the horrendous way they treated him during the trial, even if his part will be a little bit smaller than the others on trial. But he’ll be the main focus of a very memorable scene.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203494395

    I am not convinced that we’ll see a delay in the Oscars of longer than a month at the most.

    Yes, I don’t think this virus will be over in the US by then, but I think awards shows are easy to run in ways that can adapt to whatever distancing/health norms are required. They can go heavier on the montages, do zoom awards speeches (they already have split-screen reaction shots anyway in the ceremony).

    But more importantly from a financial standpoint, I think studios are going to be pissed if they put out prestige films in what is probably going to be a slow recovery to normal size for cinema audiences and won’t be able to get recognition. Also, the further the delay, the closer we get to a Grammys type of mid-year divide for what films are considered to belong to what year.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    Pollo crudo
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    Dec 3rd, 2013
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    #1203494701

    In my opinion this will likely be a year with something like 6 nominees, but still an outstanding race: Fincher vs Lee vs Anderson vs Nolan. It seems like three of the most overdue commercial directors could get an Oscar the same night.
    Also, the Sorkin film (don’t really like him).
    And I’m thinking there will be a foreign underdog revealed in a fall film festival.

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    fefface
    Joined:
    Jan 14th, 2020
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    #1203494983

    In my opinion this will likely be a year with something like 6 nominees, but still an outstanding race: Fincher vs Lee vs Anderson vs Nolan. It seems like three of the most overdue commercial directors could get an Oscar the same night. Also, the Sorkin film (don’t really like him). And I’m thinking there will be a foreign underdog revealed in a fall film festival.

    Sundance films haven’t done well at the Oscars in years but Minari could get a bit of momentum. It got excellent notices.

    We are of course also getting new Leos Carax but he’s working in English this time out.

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1203495015

    it’s over. Tenet is winning. Only Dune can stop it and nothing else.

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    Dan Backslide
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    Apr 24th, 2016
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    #1203495030

    it’s over. Tenet is winning. Only Dune can stop it and nothing else.

    I still don’t think Dune is coming out this year (or that it’ll be a very big contender), but I get the feeling that Nolan will finally win Director due to a combination of being overdue, fighting to keep cinemas open, and the fact that his film looks like a very impressive visual spectacle. But, I believe Picture will end up going to something else, as it seems like too much of an action film to take the big prize.

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    The2ndAvenger
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    Dec 5th, 2018
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    #1203495034

    I still don’t think Dune is coming out this year (or that it’ll be a very big contender), but I get the feeling that Nolan will finally win Director due to a combination of being overdue, fighting to keep cinemas open, and the fact that his film looks like a very impressive visual spectacle. But, I believe Picture will end up going to something else, as it seems like too much of an action film to take the big prize.

    I truly hope Tenet wins. I think I agree with you, however. That said, I also kinda feel like the lineup we have right now isn’t particularly strong. What do you see winning? My bet after Tenet is Trial of the Chicago 7 or maybe Da 5 Bloods.

    "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in an argument." - William Gibbs McAdoo

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203495050

    I think that year is such that action film may have a shot at winning the big prize more than in a regular situation. Agreed that Nolan is very likely winning. He’s a showy director who should have won already at least for Dunkirk (since he was nominated for that).

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