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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 4)

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203495056

    I truly hope Tenet wins. I think I agree with you, however. That said, I also kinda feel like the lineup we have right now isn’t particularly strong. What do you see winning? My bet after Tenet is Trial of the Chicago 7 or maybe Da 5 Bloods.

    I’m really not quite sure as it’s so early and we don’t even have the benefit of most of these films being in festivals to give us an early idea of quality. But I can picture all three that you just mentioned being the big winner.

    I’m pretty sure Trial of the Chicago Seven will win for its screenplay because it looks like a juicy story, and it’s Aaron Sorkin.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203495065

    Dune is winning adapted. Sorry Sorkin, not this time again.

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    _m4gnu5_
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    #1203495097

    Tenet Oscar Predictions as of now:
    Picture
    Director
    Original Screenplay (just about)
    Editing (maybe win)
    Cinematography
    Original Score
    Production Design
    Sound (maybe a win here as well)
    Visual Effects

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1203495124

    I truly hope Tenet wins. I think I agree with you, however. That said, I also kinda feel like the lineup we have right now isn’t particularly strong. What do you see winning? My bet after Tenet is Trial of the Chicago 7 or maybe Da 5 Bloods.

    I keep wondering if Hillbilly Elegy isn’t stronger than we might think. According to interviews with Howard, it seems like he erased all republican references from the movie. He was also asked if the movie could be screened at the white house and replied with a big no! It could very well be this year’s Green Book. Not that I’m predicting it. This is just a thought.

    FYC Emmys:

    THE CROWN

    Jane Lapotaire (Drama Guest Actress)
    Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress)
    Josh O'Connor (Drama Supporting Actor)
    Olivia Colman (Drama Actress)
    Tobias Menzies (Drama Actor)
    Charles Dance (Drama Guest Actor)

    KILLING EVE

    Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress)
    Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress)
    Evgenia Dodina (Drama Guest Actress)
    Sean Delaney (Drama Guest Actor)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203495143

    I still don’t think Dune is coming out this year (or that it’ll be a very big contender), but I get the feeling that Nolan will finally win Director due to a combination of being overdue, fighting to keep cinemas open, and the fact that his film looks like a very impressive visual spectacle. But, I believe Picture will end up going to something else, as it seems like too much of an action film to take the big prize.

    But when was the last time a super action heavy film won Best Director. 1917 just lost this award to Paradite despite everyone thinking Sam Mendes had this in the bag. The academy overwhelmingly favors smaller movies in the top categories, hence why I’m predicting Mank for Director right now.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203495156

    I think Tenet could win Picture if it really does end up being the movie that saves the theatrical film industry and reignites the box office, but it’s been so long since the Oscars have gone for a film like this. There’s so many other films this year even with the COVID-19 delays that seem like baiter contenders.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203495209

    I feel like, unless it’s not well received, which most of us aren’t expecting, Tenet will be seen as the initial frontrunner, but another film could easily come in and steal its frontrunner, sort of like what happened to Nolan last time with Dunkirk.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203495225

    I think that this year will starve everyone for big movies so AMPAS may look at it more favorably and less favorably on small movies. This year, the biggies are underdogs.

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    Stank83
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    #1203495262

    Spike Lee is perceived as overdue too, and if the Da 5 Bloods is well received, well..

    Don’t forget the narrative of “First black filmmaker who wins Directing”.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203495277

    Spike Lee is perceived as overdue too, and if the Da 5 Bloods is well received, well.. Don’t forget the narrative of “First black filmmaker who wins Directing”.

    That narrative took the backseat to directing that blew Director’s Guild/Branch minds. Cuaron (Gravity) defeated McQueen’s narrative. Chazelle (LLL) defeated Jenkins narrative.GDT (The Shape of Water) defeated Peele’s narrative.  Cuaron (Roma) defeated Lee’s narrative. In all cases but one (GDT), we had director/picture split and in 3 cases the picture winner had the director with narrative. And yet the bigger dazzler in directing swept all director awards. Just saying that it seems that this is the category that is least political and more about who they think is the best.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203495281

    Spike Lee is perceived as overdue too, and if the Da 5 Bloods is well received, well.. Don’t forget the narrative of “First black filmmaker who wins Directing”.

    Yes, but he’s already been well rewarded recently with both Honorary and Screenplay Oscars, so while a black filmmaker may be due, Lee isn’t, which could cause that narrative to amount to nothing. I think he’s gonna need critical consensus to pull off that win.

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    The2ndAvenger
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    Dec 5th, 2018
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    #1203495296

    I keep wondering if Hillbilly Elegy isn’t stronger than we might think. According to interviews with Howard, it seems like he erased all republican references from the movie. He was also asked if the movie could be screened at the white house and replied with a big no! It could very well be this year’s Green Book. Not that I’m predicting it. This is just a thought.

    I forgot about Hillbilly Elegy. I had actually just gone on here to add that. It could win if it is extremely well-received.

     

    "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in an argument." - William Gibbs McAdoo

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203495723

    But when was the last time a super action heavy film won Best Director. 1917 just lost this award to Paradite despite everyone thinking Sam Mendes had this in the bag. The academy overwhelmingly favors smaller movies in the top categories, hence why I’m predicting Mank for Director right now.

    I also would go for Fincher instead of Nolan at this point (without watching both movies). Both are overdue, but Fincher managed to “break” with the AMPAS first and it has been a while since Gone Girl (2014), his last movie.

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Stank83
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    #1203495736

    Directing

    1. Fincher

    2. Nolan

    3. Lee

    4. Anderson

    5. Villeneuve/ Zhao (If Dune goes 2021).

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203495899

    if Zhao gets nominated, she’ll win. All Asians who were nominated won. Ang Lee for Brokeback and Life of Pi (he only didn’t for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon), Bong for Parasite.

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