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Super Early 2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 4)

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    Milk Money
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    Oct 2nd, 2013
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    #1203496008

    if Zhao gets nominated, she’ll win. All Asians who were nominated won. Ang Lee for Brokeback and Life of Pi (he only didn’t for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon), Bong for Parasite.

    That’s not a strong trend. And I highly doubt that an unknown director is going to pull off a win this year especially with no major festival hype to push him or her to the forefront like Joon-Ho. It’s wiser to bet on someone overdue.

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    galaxy98
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    Oct 21st, 2018
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    #1203496424

    I really want to see the Oscars without an oscar bait bullsh*t. Time for more original and fresh ideas to get recognized.

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    LLLhawks
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    Dec 28th, 2018
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    #1203496426

    Echoing that, I wanna see an Oscars that isn’t dependent on film festivals (or precursor awards but that’s for another year lol). Maybe then there’d be a broader range of movies cited.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    The2ndAvenger
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    Dec 5th, 2018
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    #1203496756

    That’s not a strong trend. And I highly doubt that an unknown director is going to pull off a win this year especially with no major festival hype to push him or her to the forefront like Joon-Ho. It’s wiser to bet on someone overdue.

    Just an FYI, how Korean names work is that the 2nd part is similar to our first names, and the first part is the family name. So calling him “Joon-Ho” is like calling Nolan “Christopher.”

    But, I do agree.

    "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in an argument." - William Gibbs McAdoo

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203496822

    Just saying that it seems that this is the category that is least political and more about who they think is the best.

    I agree with you. I believe the directors’ branch will go for whoever they think it’s the best… That’s why Gerwig failed to get a Best Director Oscar nomination in spite of all the media support for a female nominated director last season. That’s why Bong Joon-ho won over Sam Mendes. That’s why Nolan waited so many years to be nominated or that’s why they keep snubing Joe Wright or they snubed Ava DuVenray. That’s why directors like Pawlikowski (“Cold War”), Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”), Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”) or Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”) got nominated.
    The directors’ branch is often unpredictable, ’cause they often don’t play by the “political” rules

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Stranger Among Us
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    #1203498006

    I agree with you. I believe the directors’ branch will go for whoever they think it’s the best… That’s why Gerwig failed to get a Best Director Oscar nomination in spite of all the media support for a female nominated director last season. That’s why Bong Joon-ho won over Sam Mendes. That’s why Nolan waited so many years to be nominated or that’s why they keep snubing Joe Wright or they snubed Ava DuVenray. That’s why directors like Pawlikowski (“Cold War”), Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”), Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”) or Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”) got nominated.
    The directors’ branch is often unpredictable, ’cause they often don’t play by the “political” rules

    I see your point but in what world was Todd Phillip’s work better than Gerwig’s? He literally “copied” a lot from Scorcese’s earlier works and failed to make his movie feel “original”. Gerwig made a film that was like the eighth adaptation of Alcott’s novel and made it seem fresh and put her own spin on it. Sure the branch has made some inspired choices over the years, but that doesn’t excuse some weird choices they’ve made over the years either.

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203498015

    I see your point but in what world was Todd Phillip’s work better than Gerwig’s? He literally “copied” a lot from Scorcese’s earlier works and failed to make his movie feel “original”. Gerwig made a film that was like the eighth adaptation of Alcott’s novel and made it seem fresh and put her own spin on it. Sure the branch has made some inspired choices over the years, but that doesn’t excuse some weird choices they’ve made over the years either.

    Warner Bros. built a huge campaign behind of “Joker”, it had the blockbuster effect, it got a prestige vibe because it won Venice, etc etc etc… I think the nom was not a product of a political choice, but the product of a huge campaign that paid off. If the director’s branch went political they would go for Gerwig (who was exceptional and she would become the first woman to be nominated twice in this category) to avoid backlash

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Dan Backslide
    Joined:
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    #1203498300

    I see your point but in what world was Todd Phillip’s work better than Gerwig’s? He literally “copied” a lot from Scorcese’s earlier works and failed to make his movie feel “original”. Gerwig made a film that was like the eighth adaptation of Alcott’s novel and made it seem fresh and put her own spin on it. Sure the branch has made some inspired choices over the years, but that doesn’t excuse some weird choices they’ve made over the years either.

    To be fair, I don’t think either deserved a nomination.

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    wolfali
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    #1203499869

    Updated predictions

    BEST PICTURE

    1. Hillbilly Elegy
    2. Da 5 Bloods
    3. Tenet
    4. Mank
    5. Ammonite
    6. The Father
    7. The French Dispatch
    8. Next Goal Wins

    BEST DIRECTOR

    1. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
    2. David Fincher, Mank
    3. Christopher Nolan, Tenet
    4. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
    5. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

    BEST ACTRESS

    1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
    2. Kate Winslet, Ammonite
    3. Olivia Colman, The Father
    4. Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window
    5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

    BEST ACTOR

    1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
    2. Gary Oldman, Mank
    3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    4. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    5. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    1. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
    2. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
    3. Frances McDormand, The French Dispatch
    4. Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
    5. Elizabeth Debicki, Tenet

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
    2. Jeffrey Wright, The French Dispatch
    3. Kaimana, Next Goal Wins
    4. Tom Burke, Mank
    5. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Brayfers
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2018
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    #1203499915

    Best Picture:
    Minari
    Mank
    The French Dispatch
    Soul
    West Side Story
    Tenet
    Dune
    Da 5 Bloods

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Best Director:
    Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    David Fincher, Mank
    Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
    Christopher Nolan, Tenet
    Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

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    Stank83
    Joined:
    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1203499937

    Last Night in Soho is a 2021 release.

    And I think Ammonite too may not come out this year.

    Same for Next Goal Wins, since Searchlight this year has already their hands full with The French Dispatch, Nomadland, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

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    Magnus
    Joined:
    Jan 20th, 2020
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    #1203500077

    Picture:
    Mank
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Da 5 Bloods
    Dune
    Nomadland
    Tenet
    The French Dispatch
    Hillbilly Elegy
    News of the World
    Next Goal Wins

    Director:
    Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
    David Fincher, Mank
    Christopher Nolan, Tenet
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Actress:
    Ana De Armas, Blonde
    Frances McDormand, Nomadland
    Kate Winslet, Ammonite
    Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Jennifer Hudson, Respect

    Actor:
    Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
    Gary Oldman, Mank
    Tom Hanks, News of the World
    Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

    Supporting Actress:
    Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
    Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
    Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
    Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
    Olivia Colman, The Father

    Supporting Actor:
    Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    David Strathairn, Nomadland
    Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Tom Burke, Mank
    Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

    Original Screenplay:
    Mank
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Da 5 Bloods
    The French Dispatch
    On the Rocks

    Adapted Screenplay:
    Nomadland
    Dune
    News of the World
    Next Goal Wins
    Hillbilly Elegy

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    OneAndOnly
    Joined:
    Mar 21st, 2017
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    #1203500098

    Best Picture:

    • Dune
    • The Father
    • The French Dispatch
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • Mank
    • News of the World
    • On the Rocks
    • Tenet
    • West Side Story

    Best Director:

    • Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    • David Fincher, Mank
    • Christopher Nolan, Tenet
    • Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
    • Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    Best Actor:

    • Adam Driver, Annette
    • Tom Hanks, News of the World
    • Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    • Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    • Gary Oldman, Mank

    Best Actress:

    • Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
    • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    • Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
    • Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water

    Best Supp. Actor:

    • Yahya Abdul-Mahteen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Benicio Del Toro, The French Dispatch
    • Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
    • Tom Pelphrey, Mank

    Best Supp. Actress:

    • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
    • Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    • Olivia Colman, The Father
    • Marion Cotillard, Annette
    • Amanda Seyfried, Mank

    Best Adapted Screenplay:

    • Dune
    • The Father
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    • News of the World

    Best Original Screenplay:

    • Da 5 Bloods
    • The French Dispatch
    • Mank
    • On the Rocks
    • Tenet

     

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Male/Straight/BLM

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1203500166

    That’s not a strong trend. And I highly doubt that an unknown director is going to pull off a win this year especially with no major festival hype to push him or her to the forefront like Joon-Ho. It’s wiser to bet on someone overdue.

    Nolan or Villeneuve.

     

    Warner Bros. built a huge campaign behind of “Joker”, it had the blockbuster effect, it got a prestige vibe because it won Venice, etc etc etc… I think the nom was not a product of a political choice, but the product of a huge campaign that paid off. If the director’s branch went political they would go for Gerwig (who was exceptional and she would become the first woman to be nominated twice in this category) to avoid backlash

    They loved Joker hence 13 noms. You know that a movie is “well, we have to nominate it but whatever” if it scores a Picture nom without a single other above the line nomination (coughthatothercomicbookflickcough). Joker had real passion. Marketing alone can’t buy you that.

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    Cordelia
    Joined:
    Jul 15th, 2018
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    #1203500865

    With three of the big upcoming speculated films for Best Picture buzz being Mank, Da 5 Bloods, and Hilbilly Elegy, I wonder what Netflix is going to do to prevent another 2019 awards season where they spread themselves too thinly.

    Netflix was left with only crumbs in terms of the final award count despite putting in major effort and having big, well-talked about contenders. Marriage Story, though getting a Supporting Actress win, underperformed on nomination morning, and The Irishman was the only Best Picture nominee to win no Oscars on the night.

    Once again, we have a year where Netflix has so many potential contenders (other potential factors include I’m Thinking of Ending Things and Rebecca), and we know Netflix can market for awards. But what will they do to change?

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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