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2022 BAFTA Film Awards

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    Manav
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    #1204635352

    It definitely will but something I also wonder is if it may complicate things a bit. I can see a world where we end up with a supporting actress lineup that includes Kirsten Dunst, Aunjanue Ellis and Ariana DeBose and it’s hard to tell which one of them is a jury pick and which two are membership picks.

    I’d think Ellis would be a membership pick.

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    m_butterfly
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    #1204635369

    It definitely will but something I also wonder is if it may complicate things a bit. I can see a world where we end up with a supporting actress lineup that includes Kirsten Dunst, Aunjanue Ellis and Ariana DeBose and it’s hard to tell which one of them is a jury pick and which two are membership picks.

    Ellis maybe? Not sure King Richard it’s the kind of movie the jury would go for.

    I’d like to see their supporting actor line up, that one will be a hard one to predict all season long imo.

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    wolfali
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    #1204635371

    I’d think Ellis would be a membership pick.

    I disagree. I definitely think if Smith gets in he would be a membership pick but there seems to be a lot of passion behind Ellis’ role here that it wouldn’t surprise me if she was a jury pick like Kosar Ali was last year (both smaller supporting roles, quite restrained performances that stand out to the industry).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Manav
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    #1204635561

    I disagree. I definitely think if Smith gets in he would be a membership pick but there seems to be a lot of passion behind Ellis’ role here that it wouldn’t surprise me if she was a jury pick like Kosar Ali was last year (both smaller supporting roles, quite restrained performances that stand out to the industry).

    Fair point.

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    wolfali
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    #1204635804

    I’d like to see their supporting actor line up, that one will be a hard one to predict all season long imo.

    I think that one will be easier to guess who the “membership picks” are. Partly due to the barren nature of the field but also I think it’s the category that has the most under the radar “passion picks” in contention that ultimately have no chance at the Oscars. Richard Ayoade in a likely British film nominee, BIFA winner Talid Ariss, Gotham nominees Orion Lee and Colman Domingo, BIFA nominee Ray Panthaki…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    alittle03
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    #1204635818

    The way the BAFTA’s Supporting Actor category is about to outsell the Oscars’s unless the Academy replicates the DiscussingFilm S. Actor nominations.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    wolfali
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    #1204636489

    Could Licorice Pizza actually under-perform with the long-list? I assume screeners probably have been sent to members of it but I wonder if it’s January release date and lack of festival presence might hurt it. Same with Parallel Mothers.

    Round one voting begins on Friday and ends on January 3rd.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    m_butterfly
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    #1204636571

    I think that one will be easier to guess who the “membership picks” are. Partly due to the barren nature of the field but also I think it’s the category that has the most under the radar “passion picks” in contention that ultimately have no chance at the Oscars. Richard Ayoade in a likely British film nominee, BIFA winner Talid Ariss, Gotham nominees Orion Lee and Colman Domingo, BIFA nominee Ray Panthaki…

    Agreed. But Kodi could be either way imo. Same with Ciaran Hinds? I know Belfast didn’t win anything at the BIFAs but maybe the jury could go for him. If Dornan shows up though :/

    About Licorice Pizza, I saw someone on twitter say SAG wasn’t getting many (if any) screeners for it so who knows.

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    wolfali
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    #1204638332

    Agreed. But Kodi could be either way imo. Same with Ciaran Hinds? I know Belfast didn’t win anything at the BIFAs but maybe the jury could go for him.

    I agree. But if it ends up being a lineup of say Richard Ayoade, Ciaran, Colman Domingo, Orion Lee, Kodi and Ray Panthaki… it will be quite clear who the top 2 are.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    LA26
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    #1204639060

    @wolfali  I saw your updated BA predictions from Dec. 5, and do you really think the BAFTAS will end up not nominating some big-name stars (like Gaga) and be different than the Oscars? What might be the reason for that in your opinion?

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    wolfali
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    #1204640106

    @wolfali I saw your updated BA predictions from Dec. 5, and do you really think the BAFTAS will end up not nominating some big-name stars (like Gaga) and be different than the Oscars? What might be the reason for that in your opinion?

    Put it this way the advantages Gaga, Kidman etc have at the Oscars won’t apply a the BAFTAs (unless one of them ends up being top 2 in the membership vote of course).

    At the end of the day a BAFTA jury at its forefront is going to care about the type of performance given. Last year we saw performances that are more emotional and are grittier from films that could be construed as social dramas make it in over those from Hollywood Oscar and audience oriented films. Adarsh Gourav and Tahar Rahim over Gary Oldman and Ralph Fiennes (the latter of whom was in a film that was a massive hit on Netflix in the UK), Bukky Bakray and Wunmi Mosaku over Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan etc. With a different jury in each category this time round we could of course have a few surprises we weren’t anticipating due to last year’s results. But I more or less expect the jury’s choices to be on the same line because the whole reason the jury was set up was because the BAFTA nominations were essentially being filled by white Hollywood stars in mediocre projects. They were indistinguishable from the Oscars.

    With Lady Gaga’s and Nicole Kidman’s performances being watched and judged against people like Joanna Scanlan’s and Tessa Thompson’s or Penelope Cruz whose performances seem to have more of an emotional gut-punch… I think their chances are very slim. That’s not to say that neither of their films can do well with the membership at large on the long-list however. I do anticipate House of Gucci will get long-listed for best film and that it will be one of the films with the most long-list mentions because it is one of the most widely seen films of the year.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    wolfali
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    #1204640750

    Mass to be released in the UK on Sky Cinema – January 20

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204640788

    Guess they got too excited about having “Sky Originals” Promising Young Woman and US vs Billie Holliday as major award contenders and wanted to snap up another one.

    Oscars FYC:

    "Lamb" – International Feature and all categories

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    forwardswill
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    Apr 9th, 2013
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    #1204643485

    Non-jury nomination expectations

    BEST FILM
    Belfast
    King Richard
    Licorice Pizza
    The Power of the Dog
    West Side Story
    (Alt: Dune)

    BEST ACTOR
    Smith
    Cumberbatch
    (Alt: Garfield)

    BEST ACTRESS
    Stewart
    Colman
    (Alt: Gaga)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Hinds
    Dornan
    (Alt: Smit-McPhee)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Balfe
    Dunst
    (Alt: Dench)

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204643531

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Balfe
    Dunst
    (Alt: Dench)

    I think if Will gets in, Ellis would also get in along with him. I can’t see people nominating Will Smith without Aunjanue Ellis. Her performance has a lot of passion and if King Richard is a huge BAFTA contender,I would think she’d make it in through the membership itself along with Will Smith.

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