Supporting Categories

[MrScreenAddictParticipant Joined: Feb 3rd, 2016 Topics: 4 Posts: 69 View Predictions]

#1202463145

I can’t believe how up-in-the-air both Supporting categories are so close to the Oscar nominations announcement. There are only 2-3 “locks” in each category and then like 5 serious contenders competing for the remaining 2-3 slots. Here’s what I’m predicting right now:

SUPP ACTOR
Dafoe
Hammer
Jenkins
Plummer
Rockwell

I just don’t see the Academy going for a dual nomination from one film in the Supporting Actor category given the intense competition, and how that hasn’t happened since Bugsy in 1991. Rockwell has more buzz from 3B, so I think Harrelson misses out. Plummer seems safe now. Hammer has a better chance than Stuhlbarg for CMBYN because of his BFCA/HFPA noms. Jenkins showed weakness with BAFTA, but I think he still gets in.

SUPP ACTRESS
Chau
Hunter
Janney
Metcalf
Spencer

I think pundits are overestimating Blige, Netflix bias will prevent her from getting in. Surges for Manville and Scott Thomas are too late, I don’t think they’ll be able to crack the top five. HFPA and BAFTA ignored The Big Sick, but I think the Academy will embrace it, so Hunter’s a good bet. Chau is a big question mark due to the muted reception towards her film, but she’s hit BFCA/HFPA/SAG, so I think she’s relatively safe.

What do you guys think?

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[AWDubayParticipant Joined: Aug 19th, 2011 Topics: 188 Posts: 6157 View Predictions]

#1202463219

I think they will do double nominees for the men so i predicting

1. Rockwell
2. Dafoe
3. Jenkins
4. Hammer
5. Harrelson
6. Plummer
7. Stuhlbarg
8. Shannon

For the females I think this year I the break with the Netflix curse and I think Mary gets in

1. Metcalf
2. Janney
3. Spenser
4. Chau
5. Blige
6. Hunter
7. KST
8. Manville

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[VeraDoyleParticipant Joined: Mar 1st, 2017 Topics: 11 Posts: 304 View Predictions]

#1202463256

I don’t think that Hammer is happening , nor should he. He was average at best. And before people jump at me, I loved the film and Chalamet is my pick for the Best Actor Oscar. I just didn’t buy Hammer at all, and his performance had no depth whatsoever. I’m glad he is getting snubbed. And as strong as Stuhlbarg’s final monologue was, that performance was non-existent all through the film. This is Chalamet’s show.

1. Janney
2. Metcalf
3. Spencer
4. Blige
5. Chau

1. Rockwell
2. Dafoe
3. Plummer
4. Jenkins
5. Harrelson

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[MrScreenAddictParticipant Joined: Feb 3rd, 2016 Topics: 4 Posts: 69 View Predictions]

#1202463260

I don’t understand how you can be a fan of the film and think so little of Hammer. The only reason the movie works (other than Chalamet’s stunning performance) is because of the chemistry between Hammer and Chalamet. I can’t even fathom nominating one of them without the other.

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[VeraDoyleParticipant Joined: Mar 1st, 2017 Topics: 11 Posts: 304 View Predictions]

#1202463269

Well thank God we are all different. I think maybe I can judge a performance individually? You talk about the duo or ensemble effect. That’s a whole different stuff.

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[BeastialgParticipant Joined: Sep 15th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 281 View Predictions]

#1202463449

I also really liked “Call me by your name” and loved Chalamet (my choice for best actor) and I’m OK with Hammer getting snubbed. He was good but didn’t find him oscar whorthy at all.

Someone I want to see nominated is Sebastian Stan. Very surprising he is not getting any attention so far.

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[Paul HardisterParticipant Joined: Feb 26th, 2012 Topics: 15 Posts: 410 View Predictions]

#1202463467

I think Stuhlbarg might get in because of the speech at the end. He has a Critics Choice nom too plus he’s in two other contenders this year: The Post and Shape of Water. I’d love both him and Hammer get in but last year they nominated Ruth Negga and not Joel Edgerton. So sometimes they snub one member of an on-screen couple. You’re right though this season has been up in the air, which is more exciting.

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[AwardsConnectKeymaster Joined: Jan 16th, 2016 Topics: 17 Posts: 3472 View Predictions]

#1202463468

1. Rockwell
2. Dafoe
3. Jenkins
4. Harrelson
5. Shannon
—
6. Plummer
7. Stuhlbarg
8. Hammer
9. Stewart

1. Metcalf
2. Janney
3. Spencer
4. Hunter
5. Manville
—
6. Blige
7. Scott Thomas
8. Chau
9. Haddish

For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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[HarmoniaParticipant Joined: Jan 8th, 2018 Topics: 2 Posts: 8 View Predictions]

#1202463490

Beastialg wrote:

Someone I want to see nominated is Sebastian Stan. Very surprising he is not getting any attention so far.

I felt the same way after ‘I, Tonya.’ Sebastian really impressed me with his performance. I don’t think he’ll get nominated, unfortunately, but I would love it if he came in as a surprise.

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[TheRedBoyParticipant Joined: Jan 22nd, 2013 Topics: 2 Posts: 448 View Predictions]

#1202463491

Someone pointed out earlier in another thread that the past 6 ceremonies have each had one nominee who missed GG, SAG, and BAFTA nominations.

This year, it could be:
Stuhlbarg / Shannon / Elba / Stan
Haddish / Krieps

Shannon was the one who got in last year without hitting the 3 precursors. I don’t know if that makes it more or less likely that he does it again this year.

I haven’t really seen any buzz at all for Stan or Elba, but I suppose either of them (or Krieps) could coattail their way to noms if their films do better than most anticipate.

Stuhlbarg seems to be most talked about amongst predictors, while Haddish might be the popular choice with the press.

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[Malcolm DunbarParticipant Joined: Jan 10th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 153 View Predictions]

#1202463506

Hammer and Stuhlbarg are both on the bubble, and can both be snubbed if Shape Of Water or 3 Billboards over performs at the Academy. I think Plummer is getting in, he got the Globes and BAFTA, which made him a solid contender.

Harrelson is likely the biggest threat, with Shannon a distant threat, as I don’t think he is very high up. I think Stuhlbarg and Hammer are neck and neck at this point. They have similar critics nominations. However Hammer got nominated in a televised precursor over him for the Globe – and he was also able to get a Supporting SAG nomination for J. Edgar so in theory support could be there. On Stuhlbarg’s side he has been in three academy films that will likely be nominated – so he has the benefit of having had an amazing year.

I would say it’s probably a four way race for the fifth slot.

1. William Dafoe

2. Sam Rockwell

3. Richard Jenkins

4. Chris Plummer

–

5. Hammer/Stuhlbarg

6. Stuhlbarg/Hammer

7. Harrelson

8. Shannon

9. Stewart

• This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  Malcolm Dunbar.

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[VeraDoyleParticipant Joined: Mar 1st, 2017 Topics: 11 Posts: 304 View Predictions]

#1202463636

Harrelson has BAFTA/SAG combo in a possible BP-frontrunner film, how on earth he’s getting snubbed for Hammer and Stuhlbarg with only a BFCA-GG (Hammer) and BFCA (Stuhlbarg) mention? Critics and HFPA  members don’t vote for the Oscars, actors are.

• This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  VeraDoyle.

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[TheRedBoyParticipant Joined: Jan 22nd, 2013 Topics: 2 Posts: 448 View Predictions]

#1202463659

VeraDoyle wrote:

Harrelson has BAFTA/SAG combo in a possible BP-frontrunner film, how on earth he’s getting snubbed for Hammer and Stuhlbarg with only a BFCA-GG (Hammer) and BFCA (Stuhlbarg) mention? Critics and HFPA members don’t vote for the Oscars, actors are.

Yeah, I think that Harrelson is actually in 3rd place over Jenkins, with Plummer / Hammer / Stuhlbarg / Shannon competing for the final slot.

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[sofanParticipant Joined: Oct 1st, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 1335 View Predictions]

#1202463676

TheRedBoy wrote:

Shannon was the one who got in last year without hitting the 3 precursors

He did this twice actually. When he was nominated for Revolutionary Road he didn’t hit any precursors. And when he was nominated at GG and SAG for 99 Homes, he missed an Oscar nomination.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he replaces Jenkins, though I’m not predicting him.

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[sofanParticipant Joined: Oct 1st, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 1335 View Predictions]

#1202463693

I have my super bet on Supporting Actor category and I feel pretty confident with

• Sam Rockwell
• Willem Dafoe
• Woody Harrelson
• Richard Jenkins / Christopher Plummer

in that order.

Rockwell and Dafoe hit all the precursors, Harrelson hit the main industry precursors with BAFTA and SAG.

And Jenkins and Plummer each missed one.

A case could be made for Hammer and Stuhlbarg but each of them missed a lot and CMBYN is somehow underperforming.

If a surprise occurs it will be Shannon replacing Jenkins as I mentioned above. And in a perfect world, Sebastian Stan would be nominated over Plummer but I don’t see it happening.

 

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