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This is also known as the “Oscar pool tie breakers”. I took it upon myself to watch as many of the shortlisted films in these categories to see if I could get any better at predicting them. The answer? No. It’s very tough to gauge what the Academy members who vote in this category are looking for because there is very little pattern (sometimes they like cute kids, sometimes not; sometimes they like well-made quirky stories, sometimes not; sometimes they like big message films, sometimes not).
And going by your personal opinion also doesn’t work either: My favorites of the shortlisted films in each of the categories all got snubbed. Although it did help me eliminate some mediocrities/stinkers. Still it only got me 2 correct in Animated and Doc and 1 correct in Live-Action. But still, we’re now in round two, I think it’s easier to predict who’s going to ultimately take the Oscar.
ANIMATED SHORT
Personal ranking:
01. “Bestia”
02. “Affairs of the Art”
03. “The Windshield Wiper”
04. “Robin Robin”
05. “BoxBallet”Predictions ranking:
01. “Robin Robin”
02. “Bestia”
03. “Affairs of the Art”
04. “The Windshield Wiper”
05. “BoxBallet”I have to say Animated Short is a *VERY* adult category this year. Only “Robin Robin” is kid-friendly. Which is one of the reasons why it might win. The other reason is that it comes from Aardman and there’s no big PIXAR or Disney short to challenge it plus it’s available on Netflix. “Bestia” is my personal favorite of the group and will most likely win from voters who see all five.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Personal ranking:
01. “Three Songs for Benazir”
02. “The Queen of Basketball”
03. “Audible”
04. “Lead Me Home”
05. “When We Were Bullies”Predictions ranking:
01. “Audible”
02. “The Queen of Basketball”
03. “Three Songs for Benazir”
04. “Lead Me Home”
05. “When We Were Bullies”The winner will be either “Audible” (about the football team of a deaf high school) or “The Queen of Basketball” (about the first woman to get drafted to play for NBA). It’s a close match between those two. “Three Songs For Benazir” could be a spoiler because it’s the most artistic of the five films and is my personal favorite of the five.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Personal ranking:
01. “Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”
02. “Please Hold”
03. “On My Mind”
04. “The Dress”
05. “The Long Goodbye”Predictions ranking:
01. “The Long Goodbye”
02. “Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”
03. “Please Hold”
04. “The Dress”
05. “On My Mind”I will say this is a genuine five-way race. I can see any of these five actually winning. I placed “The Long Goodbye” #1 because it is fronted by a famous person, Riz Ahmed, and that factor often helps. But I found it the weakest of the five. “The Dress” is quite good but it has a potentially divisive ending. “Please Hold” is the funniest of the five and that can also get it the win. “On My Mind” is the one that will give you the most feels. “Ala Kachuu”, however, ticks a lot of boxes and is the one that is the most accomplished. So take your pick.
ReplyThese are the categories that killed my predictions score! Geez, why do they make us predict this three categories when hardly any of us have access to seeing the potential nominees?
The local art house movie theater usually shows all the nominated films but I actually find it LESS likely to do well with my predictions after seeing them then when I do because I tend to disagree with their choices. Last year due to the pandemic they weren’t shown and I did BETTER in my predictions – I got all 3 right last year! Still I plan on seeing them this year, not sure when they will show up.
Like the OP said it’s impossible to figure out what the voters in these categories are thinking. I personally don’t think these categories should be in the predictions center but it is what it is.
ReplyCopy URLAudible was the only shortlisted film in any of these categories I watched before nominations (months ago, before I was even think about predictions it came up in my recommendations) and I was really surprised that it didn’t make the top 5 in our odds. It’s on Netflix and is very accessible unlike say, Love Song for Latasha from last year, which I suspect lost because of its more abstract presentation.
Queen of Basketball is still my prediction for now. Its director probably came close to a win last year and a lot of the time this category goes to contenders with catchy names because so few people see all of the films.
Animated is probably safe for Robin Robin since stop motion is inherently showy and it’s once again on Netflix.
Totally unsure about Live-Action at the moment, will Riz Ahmed campaign at all? That could make a difference since I feel like he was pretty respected even before Sound of Metal.
ReplyCopy URLi’ve just watched all the nominated animated shorts and have no favorites there. Robin Robin & The Windshield Wiper seems like the 2 that can win… Bestia was quite confusing, but got my interest only after watching it & reading what it was about (whole Ingrid story).
May I ask how you watched them? Some of them aren’t even available through, let’s say, not that legal methods.
ReplyCopy URLFor Your Consideration:
The Banshees of Inisherin in ALL categories, including:
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
- Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
- Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
- Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
- Best Supporting Actress (Sheila Flitton)
- Best Original ScreenplayLetterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges
I watched Bestia on a festival last year and right away became one of my favorite short films of the year but didn’t even allowed myself to consider would go the distance to an oscar nom. An animation with those themes and that tone and the history behind, no way!
So, I am pleasently surprised at the display of some guts and some brains from the branch.
ReplyCopy URLI’ve now seen all of the Animated nominees except for Bestia, does anyone have a YouTube/Vimeo link for it? I’m not an Oscar voter but so far last year’s final 5 were a lot stronger overall in my opinion.
Personal ranking so far:
The Windshield Wiper – Gorgeous, but not what usually wins
Robin Robin – There’s a huge gap between #1 and #2 for me; was really surprised that I didn’t connect with this film. It’s still probably going to win
Affairs of the Art – I liked the art style, feels like a long shot but from memory we’ve had similar winners
BoxBallet – I honestly found this pretty boring
Based on the trailer I’m expecting Bestia to rank somewhere in the top half of both my personal preference and predictions. Once I’ve seen it I’ll start the docs.
ReplyCopy URLI’ve now seen all of the Animated nominees except for Bestia, does anyone have a YouTube/Vimeo link for it?
here you have it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds_X-G98Vs4
I agree with you on Robin Robin (I think Burrow was far more better at shorter length) & Thw Windshield Wiper.
ReplyCopy URL
Boxballet is pretty average, but Affairs of the Art is my “last place” here…Why do three three categories exist? Every year the ceremony is too long and *no one* cares about the shorts, people audibly groan. Is there a reason they persist? They should hold a “Creative Emmys” style separate event like a lunch the weekend before the Oscars for these nominees, they can call it Short Oscars. Axing these categories from the main event would inordinately improve the broadcast.
ReplyCopy URLHere for the comedies
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