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The Best Picture Winning Combo

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    Pollo crudo
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    #1203295822

    I know many are not so interested in the stats and prefer to judge the winner based on the quality itself or external factors, like topic or production company.
    But I believe a great contribution for the triumph of a film in Best Picture relies on the support ir receives from the top 5 branches (producers, actors, directors, editors and writers) and televised awards (GG, CC and BAFTA).

    The question is: which combo you think will be the winner?
    Right now, for what we can predict, looks like this: (bold ones have been already delivered)
    1917 – GG, PGA, DGA.
    Parasite – ACE, SAG, WGA.
    OUATIH – GG, CC, BAFTA.
    Jojo has won ACE and can take WGA, but it stands in a far 4th place.

    I think this is what can naturally be predicted for each film, any of these taking four instead of three prizes can make it a default winner or change the paradigm.

    And, of course, presence in the other guild awards (especially winning) may mean support all over the place.

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    Miles
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    #1203295850

    This is an exception because OUATIH is ineligible at WGA so I think DGA will he really telling with 1917 vs. Parasite race and BAFTA will be really telling with 1917 vs. Hollywood.

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    Daniel B.
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    #1203295901

    Technically you could add a GG win for Parasite, since Foreign Language films aren’t eligible for BP.

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    Pollo crudo
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    #1203295926

    This is an exception because OUATIH is ineligible at WGA so I think DGA will he really telling with 1917 vs. Parasite race and BAFTA will be really telling with 1917 vs. Hollywood.

    In my opinion, this is precisely the wrong way to see the race, since 1917 is more of a directorial achievement and Parasite a writing one, so it seems natural for them the be the winners in those guilds. Hollywood seems to be a popular vote, hence, its frontrunner status at BAFTA. The thing is not that one, but: which combo has the better chances?
    Having done some research, I realized the best one from the last decade was WGA + SAG; La La Land won PGA and DGA, for instance, and lost BP, but won Director. Spotlight won Picture just with SAG + WGA, and Parasite has a slightly better edge now with that surprising ACE victory.

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    Daniel B.
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    #1203295934

    I would say the ones that matter the most would have to be the ones with the best track record of lining up with the Oscars’ Best Picture winners.

    Of the last 20 years, here is how each precursor’s top prize has lined up with the Oscars’ Best Picture winner:

    PGA – 14/20 (70%)
    DGA – 14/20 (70%)
    CC – 14/20 (70%)
    WGA – 11/20 (55%)
    GG – 11/20 (55%)
    SAG – 10/20 (50%)
    BAFTA – 9/20 (45%)
    ACE – 8/20 (40%)

    To break the tie with PGA, DGA, and CC, I went back another 4 years (since the Critics’ Choice Awards have been around). There were no further matches for Critics Choice, 2 more matches for PGA and 2 more matches for DGA.

    If I look at the past 30 years, here is the total for the top 2:
    PGA – 21/30 (70%)
    DGA – 21/30 (70%)

    So, I would say the two most critical precursors for the top prize are easily PGA and DGA.

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