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The experts don't know a damn thing

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  • CanadianFan
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    #1202461486

    Three Billboards was ranked third or fourth for the Globe in drama. All of the pundits missed the Harrelson nom.

    Martin McDonagh was outside the top 5 for director until very recently (Spielberg and Gerwig are somehow ranked ahead). 3B is ranked third in original screenplay after Lady Bird and Get Out (LOL). 3B is ranked sixth in editing.

    3/29 “experts” are predicting 3B to win BP. 6 Say Lady Bird, 6 say Dunkirk, 6 say Get Out, and 5 say The Post.

    Ever since I saw 3B in Toronto, I knew it would win BP. It has won more audience awards than any film this year. It has been cited as a BP nominee by more critic groups than any film this year. It leads SAG, its rivals have been killed at BAFTA… but please tell me how Get Out and Lady Bird will break every single stat this year.

    Yet another reminder that the experts don’t know anything.

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    MrGoodWood
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    #1202461492

    Three Billboards was ranked third or fourth for the Globe in drama. All of the pundits missed the Harrelson nom.

    Martin McDonagh was outside the top 5 for director until very recently (Spielberg and Gerwig are somehow ranked ahead). 3B is ranked third in original screenplay after Lady Bird and Get Out (LOL). 3B is ranked sixth in editing.

    3/29 “experts” are predicting 3B to win BP. 6 Say Lady Bird, 6 say Dunkirk, 6 say Get Out, and 5 say The Post.

    Ever since I saw 3B in Toronto, I knew it would win BP. It has won more audience awards than any film this year. It has been cited as a BP nominee by more critic groups than any film this year. It leads SAG, its rivals have been killed at BAFTA… but please tell me how Get Out and Lady Bird will break every single stat this year.

    Yet another reminder that the experts don’t know anything.

    LOL

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    Anonymous
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    #1202461498

    Three Billboards is winning at this point. If Harrelson is snubbed Rockwell will win.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1202461499

    Does anyone know what’s going on this year? And am I the only one still awake?

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202461510

    This has been such an unpredictable year. I did not see Three Billboards’ dominance this season coming. I thought McDormand would be a frontrunner for Best Actress and Rockwell a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor, but I didn’t expect it to be a juggernaut.

    If you look at the BAFTA nods, it looks like a lock to win both British Film and Best Film (Lady Bird, its biggest competition in the Best Picture Oscar race, was snubbed in this category). McDormand is in a prime position to win Best Actress as well.

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    Riley
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    #1202461733

    I sometimes feel like the pundits do not understand the derby part of the derby.  They are so resistant to certain films because they did not think of them first.  The last time that it really frustrated me was two years ago with The Big Short.  It was underestimated for nominations so many times.

    Looking back at the odds, it was predicted for zero SAG nominations; got two.  Predicted for two Globe nominations (behind Joy in Film); got four.  Not predicted for a DGA nomination; nominated.  Predicted in ninth place for a PGA nomination; won.  Despite the momentum, people continued to bet against it every single time.

    The Big Short was barely on my radar before SAG nominations; I did not predict it for any, but once they happened, I woke up and kicked myself for not seeing it coming because it makes so much sense as a contender on paper.  So I got its four Globe nominations, its DGA nomination, its PGA nomination and its PGA win.  (Yes, I ultimately bet on it for Best Picture because I never jumped on The Revenant train.)

    Three Billboards was not on anyone’s radar before Toronto.  But then it won Toronto, which is huge because it is not an award voted by snobs like the critic awards, but by a diverse group that cares about film, much like the academy at large.  That was when it proved itself and destroyed any preconceived notions, just as the SAG nominations did with The Big Short.

    Part of it is that people predict the Oscars all year long.  And when you are betting on a whole bunch of movies that nobody has seen, you bet on track record.

    Nobody pegged The Big Short as a contender early on because it was directed by a guy who had only done Will Ferrell comedies.  And with 81 on Metacritic, it did not quite have the reviews to enter the conversation independently by way of critic awards.  Instead, everyone was talking up The Martian because pundits needing something to talk about in the summer came up with the idea that Ridley Scott was winning a career Oscar.  The Martian has 80 on Metacritic, by the way.  If The Big Short had Martin Scorsese as a director like The Wolf of Wall Street (75 on Metacritic), which was similar in tone and style, then it would have gotten precursor director nominations instead of him getting nothing before AACTA, BAFTA and DGA.

    Nobody pegged Three Billboards as a contender early on because Martin McDonagh is not a known quantity as an awards director (or a budding auteur).  Instead, people have been talking up The Post almost all year and we know how that is going.  Three Billboards has 88 on Metacritic.  It got four SAG nominations, establishing its industry viability.  It is a proven populist favourite, per all of its festival wins. It dominated in AACTA wins.  I do not understand what the hold-up is.

    Three Billboards was predicted for four Globe nominations (including a fifth-place ranking for Film); nominated for six.  Predicted for three SAG nominations; got four.  Predicted for one Globe win; won four.  (I got Harrelson at SAG, as well as the Globe Film and Screenplay wins.)

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Milo Kunis
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    #1202461737

    Their predictions lean more towards personal preferences. The predictions tend to be more WHO SHOULD in lieu of WHO WILL. And every year it seems none of us know which end is up until the televised awards roll out.

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    moviefan61794
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    #1202461741

    I trust the people who post on this forum on a daily basis over the experts.

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    Riley
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    #1202461755

    Another thing that gets me is consistency.  Per the odds, Lady Bird is the frontrunner to win Best Picture.  But at no point have I heard of Lady Bird being discussed for a Best Editing nomination.  1118 have Lady Bird ranked first for Picture out of 5134 who have it in their Picture predictions, but only 258 have it anywhere in their Editing predictions.

    Sure, at some point, we are going to get another Best Picture winner (that is not seemingly one take) that is going to be snubbed in Editing.  But why would you bet on that?  Lady Bird even got ACE, so it has a footing.  Spotlight did not get that and it still got an Editing nomination.  12 Years a Slave is another Best Picture without anything interesting going on, editing-wise.  The Descendants freaking won the ACE Drama award, so it would have come first in Oscar nomination ballots for the category.

    Less baffling but still curious is how similarly nobody is predicting Get Out for sound nominations.  Sound is so important to the horror genre.  A mere 86 out of thousands have Get Out down for a Sound Mixing nomination and 87 have it down for Sound Editing.  And again, these are categories that nominate Best Picture contenders for no reason.  La La Land got a Sound Editing nomination.  Birdman won CAS.  Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Lincoln, Moneyball, The King’s SpeechThe Artist (context: a silent movie) was nominated at BAFTA in their combined Best Sound category.

    Or what about Get Out for Best Cinematography?  There is at least one slot in that category that is wide open.  If you are predicting it to win Best Picture or think that it can, how can it be that Get Out will not only be snubbed, but is such a non-starter altogether in Cinematography?  It has the most iconic image of the year in film (you know the one).  Plus there is all of that stuff with him falling into the Sunken Place.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    LaChienne
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    #1202461763

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    MrGoodWood
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    #1202461861

    Another thing that gets me is consistency. Per the odds, Lady Bird is the frontrunner to win Best Picture. But at no point have I heard of Lady Bird being discussed for a Best Editing nomination. 1118 have Lady Bird ranked first for Picture out of 5134 who have it in their Picture predictions, but only 258 have it anywhere in their Editing predictions.

    Sure, at some point, we are going to get another Best Picture winner (that is not seemingly one take) that is going to be snubbed in Editing. But why would you bet on that? Lady Bird even got ACE, so it has a footing. Spotlight did not get that and it still got an Editing nomination. 12 Years a Slave is another Best Picture without anything interesting going on, editing-wise. The Descendants freaking won the ACE Drama award, so it would have come first in Oscar nomination ballots for the category.

    Less baffling but still curious is how similarly nobody is predicting Get Out for sound nominations. Sound is so important to the horror genre. A mere 86 out of thousands have Get Out down for a Sound Mixing nomination and 87 have it down for Sound Editing. And again, these are categories that nominate Best Picture contenders for no reason. La La Land got a Sound Editing nomination. Birdman won CAS. Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Lincoln, Moneyball, The King’s Speech. The Artist (context: a silent movie) was nominated at BAFTA in their combined Best Sound category.

    Or what about Get Out for Best Cinematography? There is at least one slot in that category that is wide open. If you are predicting it to win Best Picture or think that it can, how can it be that Get Out will not only be snubbed, but is such a non-starter altogether in Cinematography? It has the most iconic image of the year in film (you know the one). Plus there is all of that stuff with him falling into the Sunken Place.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202461878

    Another thing that gets me is consistency. Per the odds, Lady Bird is the frontrunner to win Best Picture. But at no point have I heard of Lady Bird being discussed for a Best Editing nomination. 1118 have Lady Bird ranked first for Picture out of 5134 who have it in their Picture predictions, but only 258 have it anywhere in their Editing predictions.

    Sure, at some point, we are going to get another Best Picture winner (that is not seemingly one take) that is going to be snubbed in Editing. But why would you bet on that? Lady Bird even got ACE, so it has a footing. Spotlight did not get that and it still got an Editing nomination. 12 Years a Slave is another Best Picture without anything interesting going on, editing-wise. The Descendants freaking won the ACE Drama award, so it would have come first in Oscar nomination ballots for the category.

    Less baffling but still curious is how similarly nobody is predicting Get Out for sound nominations. Sound is so important to the horror genre. A mere 86 out of thousands have Get Out down for a Sound Mixing nomination and 87 have it down for Sound Editing. And again, these are categories that nominate Best Picture contenders for no reason. La La Land got a Sound Editing nomination. Birdman won CAS. Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Lincoln, Moneyball, The King’s Speech. The Artist (context: a silent movie) was nominated at BAFTA in their combined Best Sound category.

    Or what about Get Out for Best Cinematography? There is at least one slot in that category that is wide open. If you are predicting it to win Best Picture or think that it can, how can it be that Get Out will not only be snubbed, but is such a non-starter altogether in Cinematography? It has the most iconic image of the year in film (you know the one). Plus there is all of that stuff with him falling into the Sunken Place.

    When I was predicting Get Out and Lady Bird as the front runners, I was predicting that Get Out would be nominated for editing and both sound categories and that Lady Bird would be nominated for editing as well. I have now removed Get Out from one sound category and Lady Bird from editing. I had Get Out in cinematography for a while too.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1202461888

    “Experts” are people with a popular outlet. That’s the only difference between them and us. They don’t know shit. And if they do, they know as much as we do and some would say we know more. It’s been like this forever. This is why it’s laughable when some stans come in and talk about “the experts” when defending their posts.

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