January 10, 2020 at 10:53 pm #1203274999
Suppose these eight films are locks for a Best Picture nomination (1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite) and Ford v Ferrari takes the ninth spot and there will be 10 nominees for this year’s awards, which film would probably snag the last place?January 10, 2020 at 11:06 pm #1203275001
If there is a 9th spot, I do not think it will go to Ford v Ferrari. All it got was a PGA and a Critics Choice nom. It’s this year’s “Saving Mr. Banks” or “The Town”
Dear Gold Derby, please add Ibrahima Gueye to the prediction center 🙂January 10, 2020 at 11:11 pm #1203275005
How accurate would it be to compare the Oscar chances of The Farewell to Beasts of the Southern Wild? Does Beasts set a recent precedent for it?January 10, 2020 at 11:44 pm #1203275018
There will never be a tenth nominee.January 11, 2020 at 12:33 am #1203275054This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 11, 2020 at 1:54 am #1203275124
I agree with the premise of this thread in that there will be a fight between these three for the last slot…
I just think it will be for the 9th slot with Ford V Ferrari in contention as the 4th that is weaker than some argue.
My prediction of the order is
- Knives Out
- The Farewell
- I Got Two Popes One For The Plug and One for the Load
1: Knives Out just has this likeability to it and is a serious likely nominee for screenplay. I can see this being on a lot of ballots, and having some vocal voter fans.
2: The Farewell has underperformed in some precursors, but this has one huge advantage over the other 3 – a serious performance contender for a nominee in Awkwafina. A screenplay nomination could also happen, but this film’s weaker performance and subtitle barrier for some means it sadly isn’t the #1 in my prediction.
3: Ford V Ferrari is a film I have long been cynical about chances of. Unlike my early Joker cynicism, this paid off pretty well. It didn’t get much Golden Globes buzz or BAFTA. It does have the advantage of a likely handsome collection of technical awards nominations coming, but the near absence of Bale in a relatively mild year for Actor nominations speaks to this underperformance.
4: The Two Popes could’ve happened in an alternate timeline. This isn’t that timeline. Hopkins might Hopkins his way to an undeserved nomination, but the film itself is weak as a candidate, arguably peaking too early into the precursors race.
For Your Consideration:
Best Picture: Wolfwalkers
Best Animated Feature: WolfwalkersJanuary 11, 2020 at 1:58 am #1203275126This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 11, 2020 at 3:55 am #1203275182
To quote Florence Pugh in Little Women, “It’s either Knives Out or it’s nothing.”
I just love movies. And awards.January 11, 2020 at 4:09 am #1203275194
I’m probably being biased but I’d say The Farewell. I don’t see Knives Out getting into BP when it’s only getting a Screenplay nom.
The Two Bores just ain’t happening.January 11, 2020 at 5:47 am #1203275242
You could make a strong argument for “Knives Out” and “The Farewell” on any given day, which is why I have them as my #9 and #10, but I flip flop on who is likelier to make it. “Knives Out” is a crowdpleasing box office hit that struck at the right time and is really well-liked (at the very least) by everyone. “The Farewell” is a small, quiet indie that was still very successful and has garnered some awards traction, though not enough to really solidify its position in the race. If we’re talking about passion being the thing that gets a film past that nomination threshold, I kind of think “The Farewell” has the better chance just because it is a much more personal and emotional film that is likely to pull in voters’ #1 votes. That being said, I think it’ll be the consensus eight and maybe one of these extra films if we’re lucky. “Ford v Ferrari” could have a chance, but “The Two Popes” isn’t happening.January 11, 2020 at 7:01 am #1203275304
We will only have 9 nominees at most and if anyone would take the 10th spot it would be Bombshell.January 11, 2020 at 7:47 am #1203275322
I don’t expect there to be 10th nominee, but if there is (and I agree with your 8 locks and 9th spot), then I’m now thinking it would be The Two Popes. I find it a bit of a wild card. It could end up doing very well, or get practically nothing.
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