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The Incoming Disney Shutout

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203326403

    One of my craziest predictions that I’ve had for a little while is that Disney’s films would be completely shutout of the Oscars, which hasn’t happened in a very long time. With BAFTA becoming the second major precursor in a row to snub Disney completely, this now seems a lot more likely. In this heading, I will go through the list of things that need to happen for Disney to be shut out of the Oscars, and the likelihood of each of these things happening. Then you guys can give me your feedback.

    Oh, and I should mention that I’m not including Fox’s films on this list. Both were made before the acquisition of Fox by Disney and have had no Disney branding on them. If Disney is essentially treating them and Fox as separate entities, the Oscars will too.

     

    Animated Feature: Toy Story 4 needs to lose to any of the other nominated films.

    Likelihood: Somewhat high. I’d say Klaus is probably the frontrunner in this category now with BAFTA win and Annie sweep (two of the biggest precursors in this category), vs Toy Story 4’s wins at CC and PGA. Plus visibility won’t be a problem for Klaus, like it was for other Foreign films since it’s on Netflix and in English.

     

    Visual Effects: The Lion King, Star Wars, and Endgame all need to lose to 1917 or The Irishman.

    Likelihood: Pretty high. Picture films have been favored in this category for a while now (when they’re nominated) and the Academy also seems to like rewarding smaller scale visual effects like Ex Machina and First Man. I’d say 1917 is more likely with it’s BAFTA win and widespread support at the Oscars, while The Irishman has been shut out of 2 major precursors and courted a lot of controversy for it’s de-aging CGI.

     

    Original Song: Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4 would need to lose to any of the other nominees.

    Likelihood: Very high. Despite it’s massive box office haul, Frozen 2 has not had the same cultural impact that the first film had. I still haven’t heard a single one of the film’s songs. And no one remembers Toy Story 4’s song. With wins at GG and CC, plus the narrative of Elton and Bernie winning together for the first time, Rocketman is the film to beat here.

     

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Maleficant Mistress of Evil would need to lose to any of the other nominees.

    Likelihood: Guaranteed. It’s a two-horse race between Bombshell and Joker in this category.

     

    Sound Editing: Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker would need to lose to all of the other nominees.

    Likelihood: Guarenteed. No Star Wars film has won an Academy award since 1983, and Rise of Skywalker is now the worst-reviewed film in the franchise.

     

    Original Score: John Williams would need to lose to every other nominee.

    Likelihood; Guarenteed. Joker is deservedly sweeping the Score awards.

     

    Animated Short: Kitbull would need to lose to any of the other nominees.

    Likelihood: Somewhat high. Kitbull is adorable and delightful, but it hasn’t had the same visibility or popularity as other Disney shorts. Hair Love is more widely seen and loved, and it’s exactly the type of story the Academy will want to reward.

     

    As you can see, the Disney shutout is a strong possibility, one that I’ve decided to fully commit to predicting. Disney is not dominating the categories they usually dominate (Animated Feature, Animated Short, and Original Song) and none of their contenders this year are particularly strong. It seems like there’s an organized backlash against Disney by the industry right now, likely as a result of their increasing monopolization and strong focus on streaming. It will be interesting to see if this continues in future years, with Pixar’s return to their beloved Original storytelling, plus the first slate of Fox films under Disney’s control, coming this year. Will the backlash continue, or is this only temporary?

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    Chevi
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    #1203326453

    Altough probable, I’m not sure about TS4. It won PGA after all, and Klaus is foreign.

    Hair Love is more widely seen and loved, .

    Not according to imdb.

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by Chevi.
    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by Chevi.
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    Dr. Manhattan
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    #1203326460

    Jojo Rabbit is winning Best Adapted Screenplay for sure and, technically speaking, that is a Disney film.

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    Singsongoflove01
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    #1203326462

    Kitbull was my favorite animated short. It was clever and had a big heart. It also showed a black cat and pit bull in a positive light (two misunderstood animals). I think Hair Love will win but if I was voting Kitbull would get my vote. (It was also jarringly different in subject and theme from the others.)

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203326470

    I’m still not sold on Hair Love beating Kitbull. Usually the one with the cute animal wins this category, and Kitbull has two of them. Hair Love is more personal and sentimental, but that usually counts for more in live-action.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203326478

    Jojo Rabbit is winning Best Adapted Screenplay for sure and, technically speaking, that is a Disney film.

    I’m not counting Fox films this year since Jojo Rabbit and FvF were already conceived and in production before Fox was bought out. And Disney never put their name on either film (thought that’s been true for every Fox film under Disney so far).

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    Singsongoflove01
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    #1203326549

    I’m still not sold on Hair Love beating Kitbull. Usually the one with the cute animal wins this category, and Kitbull has two of them. Hair Love is more personal and sentimental, but that usually counts for more in live-action.

    I want Kitbull to win. It was also thematically different. The others all had people dying. Keep in mind Pixar won with a non-animal short last year with Bao.

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    M: The Original
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    #1203326564

    Hair Love and Harriet in Song are the only categories I can think of with a Black nominee. Just for the optics alone these things matter.

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    Singsongoflove01
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    #1203326590

    Hair Love and Harriet in Song are the only categories I can think of with a Black nominee. Just for the optics alone these things matter.

    Maybe but they don’t seem concerned about it in other categories. I think Hair Love will win but Kitbull has a shot.

    Elton will be winning song. I just don’t see an upset-he’s won everything else.

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    JackO
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    #1203326610

    Toy Story 4 will be lazy named checked and that will be that. Also Lion King is still right there for VFX despite BAFTA. Calling First Man small scale is hilarious tho. While this does have a small chance of happening, I don’t see it.

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    Guest 2018
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    #1203326713

    It’s just odd the industry has an attitude of ‘Netflix: BAD!” when it comes to live action movies, but it’s french kiss-a-palooza when it comes to animated film. Klaus IS, after all, a Netflix movie. And it’s not a Disney “shutout”, it’s an unwarranted Disney/Marvel BACKLASH against Endgame and Frozen II.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203326776

    It’s just odd the industry has an attitude of ‘Netflix: BAD!” when it comes to live action movies, but it’s french kiss-a-palooza when it comes to animated film. Klaus IS, after all, a Netflix movie. And it’s not a Disney “shutout”, it’s an unwarranted Disney/Marvel BACKLASH against Endgame and Frozen II.

    You’re right about the backlash, but I think unwarranted is a matter of perspective. For us consumers at home, it seems really vengeful, but for someone in Hollywood who works for a rival studio Disney’s dominance is hitting you hard and heavy on your mind: it’s affecting them a lot more than us. So I can fully understand the anti-Disney sentiment.

    Also Netflix is about to win less awards this year with all of their films combined than Roma did by itself last year. The Irishman’s going home empty handed and Marriage Story’s going 1 for 6. If that’s not anti-Netflix sentiment I don’t know what is.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    jman02
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    #1203326928

    Big Hero 6 also lost out the Annie and the BAFTA (and the PGA) but still won the Oscar. Also, recently, Kubo won the BAFTA but Zootopia won everything else.

    I do acknowledge that Best Animated Feature is definitely gonna be a toss up this year, but I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into jusst those two awards to determine the winner. If there’s no overwhelming support backing one film, i.e. in Big Hero 6’s year where Lego Movie and HTTYD2 were splitting precursors, lazy voters will probably still pick the billion dollar Disney film that was still universally acclaimed. Even though it does show that voters are starting to become less lazy in voting for this award.

    But who knows?

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203326955

    Big Hero 6 also lost out the Annie and the BAFTA (and the PGA) but still won the Oscar. Also, recently, Kubo won the BAFTA but Zootopia won everything else. I do

    Those aren’t Pixar films though. They’re Dinsey Animation. People who act like those two are the same infuriate me.

    Anyway, Big Hero 6 won because the industry was split between How to Train Your Dragon 3 and The Lego Movie (which wasn’t even nominated), and their was no anti-Disney sentiment back then (this was before their crazy run of billion-dollar grossers). As for Kubo, I’m not sure how that example is in any way comparible. Klaus swept the Annies and has tied Toy Story 4 in precursor wins, winning the more important and accurate ones overall. Also those are the only two times this decade that the BAFTA winner didn’t win Best Animated Feature.

    I have no bias against Toy Story 4: I actually love that film. But Klaus is the frontrunner now, and anyone who doesn’t think that is just wrong.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    Turd Ferguson
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    #1203329804

    Those aren’t Pixar films though. They’re Dinsey Animation. People who act like those two are the same infuriate me.

    Anyway, Big Hero 6 won because the industry was split between How to Train Your Dragon 3 and The Lego Movie (which wasn’t even nominated), and their was no anti-Disney sentiment back then (this was before their crazy run of billion-dollar grossers). As for Kubo, I’m not sure how that example is in any way comparible. Klaus swept the Annies and has tied Toy Story 4 in precursor wins, winning the more important and accurate ones overall. Also those are the only two times this decade that the BAFTA winner didn’t win Best Animated Feature.

    I have no bias against Toy Story 4: I actually love that film. But Klaus is the frontrunner now, and anyone who doesn’t think that is just wrong.

    Where is this evidence of a Disney backlash? Black Panther just picked up a shit ton of awards last year.

    Big fan of Better Call Saul, Sex Education, Barry, BoJack Horseman, and, especially, Survivor

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