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The Power Of The Dog – JC, BC, KD

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204522576

    It’s strongest in director and screenplay, and I’ll be honest, I’m just really happy Campion is back in the Oscar conversation.

    I suppose quality cinema shouldn’t need the validation of a popularity contest- in her Oscar acceptance speech for The Piano, Campion said she had felt “deeply cynical” about awards shows- but I love seeing when AMPAS gets it right, when so often they get it wrong.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204523083

    Jane Campion has been presented the Lumiere Award by Julia Ducournau. The first female Palm D’Or winner presented an award by the second.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204523091

    This and campion are winning. I know, boring to have winners so early but sometimes you just know it’s over. Nomadland 2.0.

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    nevkm
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    #1204523105

    Jane Campion has been presented the Lumiere Award by Julia Ducournau. The first female Palm D’Or winner presented an award by the second.

    The two legends whew

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    kaziz
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    #1204523136

    This and campion are winning. I know, boring to have winners so early but sometimes you just know it’s over. Nomadland 2.0.

    I wish I shared your optimism (or…certainty I guess because I don’t think you like it that much, maybe I’m wrong). I think the critics groups may have some big ideas as to how to boost films that have been flying under the radar (The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, Passing, Mass, etc etc). But yeah they love TPOTD so it’s gonna be there. I’m guessing Campion will lead critics groups for Director & honestly that may well be enough bc it sure doesn’t seem like the Best Film will go to any ONE overwhelmingly.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204523159

    Critics groups are going to try to boost that crap Titane because they want to feel special. Not even US arhouse crowd showed up for that one, so naturally critics are going to try to Ethan Hawke its director and actress.

    But we know that critics don’t matter all that much. Campion is winning. Dukakis, Gul Dukat, whetever that French lady’s name is not even if her movie gets nominated in Foreign cause USA and France friendship or something. There’s no way that AMPAS, and that includes more elitist Director’s Branch, fall for that WTF gimmick of a movie.

    I can also see them snub Stewart in favor of Pensive or whatever her name, another French actress. So Titane or Pensive and then they get snubbed by all precursors and AMPAS.

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    kaziz
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    #1204523181

    I can also see them snub Stewart in favor of Pensive or whatever her name, another French actress. So Titane or Pensive and then they get snubbed by all precursors and AMPAS.

    Renate Reinsve, lol c’mon man. She’s actually fab honestly, though yeah, hard path! I think part of it is also that you’re coming from a heavy US-centric place and neither of the two frontrunners are by US directors, they’re just…in English, and the Academy is DEF vvvv international now. I mean their new group had so many people who work mostly not in English that’s the first thing I noticed tbh.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
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    #1204523195

    Also I have zero idea if they will boost Titane tbh. It’s actually NOT critically acclaimed (the New Yorker‘s review was blistering). I liked (did not love) it, it was definitely trying too hard but it’s not exactly the snooty-person’s choice so… I’m not so sure they’ll do that. Parallel Mothers, Petite Maman, Flee, Happening, The Hand of God, maybe.

    They also didn’t go for Hereditary or Midsommar as films at all as I recall, so I…doubt it.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204523214

    I respect that they didn’t go for Aster crap.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204524010

    TPOTD will do well with critics awards, the key will be how well it does with Best Film prizes. The main competition at this point, Belfast is 75 on Metacritic (compared to 90) so looks weaker, so a strong showing with critics group will look very promising for Belfast’s prospects

    Of course, as always, the guilds matter far more than the critics groups. At this point it’s about momentum and narrative.

     

     

     

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    crabbie
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    #1204524444

    We are getting another trailer this week after the film has completed its LFF run. Maybe on Wednesday or Thursday?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
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    #1204524488

    TPOTD will do well with critics awards, the key will be how well it does with Best Film prizes. The main competition at this point, Belfast is 75 on Metacritic (compared to 90) so looks weaker, so a strong showing with critics group will look very promising for Belfast’s prospects

    Of course, as always, the guilds matter far more than the critics groups. At this point it’s about momentum and narrative.

    Yeaaaaaah but it’s also solid enough that maybe they WON’T overwhelmingly go for it. I think Ari Wegner, Jane Campion will run the gamut but for the FILM and Best Actor in particular….I dunno, there’s so many under the radar films the critics groups could boost instead: Passing, The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, Flee, The Hand of God, Petite Maman, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, etc etc. I mean a lot of these are films with really high MC scores!

    C’mon C’mon: 81
    Happening: 81
    Passing:84
    Spencer:85
    The Lost Daughter: 88
    Flee: 88
    The Worst Person in the World: 88
    Petite Maman: 93

    Kinda just stands to reason that they might want to boost these films and their performances :/ Stewart’s an obvious pick and so is TPOTD, the critics groups often get behind some non-obvious ones to run the table with (Sound of Metal + Ahmed + Raci). Often it works to get them into the race. Just saying it’s possible. It even makes Mass a bit unlikely since there’s even more acclaimed films here that few have seen.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204524505

    TPOTD vs Belfast

    TPOTD is not going to miss:

    Picture

    Director – projected winner

    Actor

    SupActress

    Sup Actor

    Adapted

    Cinematography

    some below the line

    Not sure about Editing. Did reviews say anything about it?

    Belfast is not going to miss:

    Picture

    SupActress (1 or 2)

    SupActor (1 or 2)

    Original Script

    Cinematography

    Some below the line

    Not sure about Editing. Think that Branagh could miss Director. definitely don’t see him as shoo-in as Campion.

    So I’d say TPOTD is stronger. It also doesn’t need subtitles. 😀

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204525076

    Belfast is definitely the old fashioned Green Book type winner. Despite its western TPOTD is much more of a auteur Nomadland type winner.

    Everyone is assuming it’s a 2 horse race but it depends on how Nightmare Alley, Being the Ricardos & even Don’t Look Up land.

    As always, the campaign is king and will be the deciding factor.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204527061

    Just added to AFI Festival line up

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