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Three Billboards or TSOW: Which one has the better chance at winning?

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  • GMonty777
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    #1202480254

    Hey everybody, happy Oscar season. I don’t post much on these boards, but I have been following the Oscars since 1997.

    It seems to me that the Best Picture boils down to either Three Billboards (3BNEM) or The Shape of Water (TSOW).

    Here’s my PROS and CONS for each film:

    3BNEM
    Pros
    – Won the Globe and SAGE award.
    – McDormand and Rockwell are pretty much locks for Actress and Supporting Actor, thanks to the SAGs, Globes, and Critics Choice award lining up.
    – Nominated for Best Picture at the PGA, DGA, and SAG awards. Ever since 1996, the Best Picture winner was nominated for all three big Guild awards. Braveheart was the only film to win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination.
    – Nominated for at least 5 Oscars.
    – Going to win at least one or two major non-technical Oscars.
    – Won Best Screenplay at the Globes.

    Cons
    – No directing nomination. In the last 37 years, only 5 Best Picture winners failed to score Oscar nominations for director, writing, and editing. They were Birdman (No editing), Argo (No directing), Titanic (No screenplay), Driving Miss Daisy (No directing), and Ordinary People (No editing). Birdman and Argo won the PGA, DGA, and SAGE. Titanic won the PGA and DGA. Driving Miss Daisy won the PGA. Ordinary People won the DGA.

    TSOW
    Pros
    – Won the PGA and Critics Choice Best Picture Award.
    – Won the Critics Choice and Globe for Best Director.
    – The only Best Picture nominee up for directing, writing, and editing.
    – Nominated for the most Oscars.
    – Going to win at least one major non-technical Oscar.

    Cons
    – No SAG ensemble nomination. It would be the next Braveheart if it won.

    Which one do you think will win?

    • This topic was modified 8 months ago by  GMonty777.
    • This topic was modified 7 months, 4 weeks ago by  GMonty777. Reason: Still undecided on my own pick
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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202480256

    The Shape of Water is the favorite right now, mainly due to the fact that it literally got nominations in everywhere it needed to. The PGA win also showed that it could have success on a preferential ballot.

    At the same time, though, Three Billboards is a very timely film with the #TimesUp movement. The acting branch at most of these shows also love the film, as shown by the awards McDormand and Rockwell have won at the televised awards. If 3B somehow overcomes the Directing snub and wins Best Picture, it’ll be beccause the acting branch at The Academy carried it through.

    I also have to say that it’s awesome that these two female-driven films are the two frontrunners for Best Picture (Lady Bird has a shot at winning BP as well). Not many films like this have won this award in the past two decades, so this should be a moment we all celebrate.

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    Foolio
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    #1202480257

    Good question. The SAG stat is really tough to overcome but I’d still say TSOW has a better shot than 3BB, a controversial movie without a Directing nod. Still, I suspect there’s ample room for Get Out or Lady Bird to sneak in and take Best Picture – probably more room than we realize at the moment.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202480258

    Good question. The SAG stat is really tough to overcome but I’d still say TSOW has a better shot than 3BB, a controversial movie without a Directing nod. Still, I suspect there’s ample room for Get Out or Lady Bird to sneak in and take Best Picture – probably more room than we realize at the moment.

    I could see Get Out winning Best Picture if The Academy wants to make a political statement in the Trump era.

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    AlexVieira
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    #1202480262

    I’m almost sure who will win at some categories: Actor (Oldman), Actress (McDormand), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Supporting Actress (Janney) and Director (Del Toro). Best Picture, though, like you said, is balanced between those two movies. Right now, my bet goes to Three Billboards, but The Shape is a real and strong contender, indeed.

     

    An unexpected turn would be Get Out.

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    Thomas Eagan
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    #1202480271

    What if Three Billboards and TSOW split the core and Dunkirk wins the prize. I would love to Say CMBYN in that sentence but if that where to happen it might be Dunkirk. I can see Dunkirk being placed in the top 3 on a lot of ballots.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202480273

    Good question. The SAG stat is really tough to overcome but I’d still say TSOW has a better shot than 3BB, a controversial movie without a Directing nod. Still, I suspect there’s ample room for Get Out or Lady Bird to sneak in and take Best Picture – probably more room than we realize at the moment.

    The SAG stat would be more willing to ignore if (a) won the DGA. That’s face it, it’s going to happen, AND (b) won the WGA and BAFTA original screenplay award.

    Get Out and Lady Bird needs to show up big time at the WGA and BAFTAs in the writing category.

    The screenplay/picture relationship is now more accurate than the picture/director stat. The last time a film won the Best Picture without a screenplay win was The Artist. Before that was M$B, Chicago, and Gladiator.

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    EmmyWinner
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    #1202480277

    What if Three Billboards and TSOW split the core and Dunkirk wins the prize. I would love to Say CMBYN in that sentence but if that where to happen it might be Dunkirk. I can see Dunkirk being placed in the top 3 on a lot of ballots.

    Hahahahahaha Nolan stans still trying to make Dunkirk happen. Nobody cares for the film.

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    alaska789
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    #1202480741

    The BAFTAs will indeed go for 3 Bills in BP , but SHAPE will already of won the DGA , and so it goes down to a photo finish
    Only SHAPE or 3 Bills can ”realistically” win but I’d give SHAPE the advantage of 55/45 right now !

    Generally speaking , the voters prefer a retro movie to a contemporary one and SHAPE is not only set in the late 1950s but is also an ode to classic film ….voters like movies about Cinema a la Argo, The Artist, Birdman and now SHAPE , and considering the effects of the pref ballot it’s my intuitive hunch that SHAPE sneaks a win on this !

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    Teridax
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    #1202480742

    TSOW, duh. Three Billboards isn’t even winning Picture at the Oscars without a Directing nomination. TSOW was snubbed for SAG Ensemble, but I would argue it made up for that by getting 3 acting nods with the Academy.

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202480763

    I think that my two main concerns about The Shape of Water are:

    (1) there is a pretty consistent overlap of Best Picture and Best Screenplay winners, and TSOW is ranked third at best in that category
    (2) more often than not, the most nominated film(s) and the biggest winner(s) don’t win Best Picture these days. TSOW is most nominated and will likely be the biggest winner, and it doesn’t feel like it fits the Hurt Locker / King’s Speech / Birdman mold for some reason.

    That said, I do think that the film is in a better position than Three Billboards right now.

    I can definitely see Get Out taking Original Screenplay and Best Picture, though. In fact, a part of me almost expects it.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202480777

    I think Lady Bird is going to win. I can’t explain it and I am currently predicting The Shape Of Water but I keep on having this gut feeling about it. Female directed movie with a female lead who is mostly likable in a film that got great reviews (the best reviewed movie of the year) and a preferential ballot system for Best Picture may very well mean Lady Bird wins. I might change my mind, esp. once the DGA winner is announced, but I keep on thinking it’s going to be Lady Bird that wins the Oscar for BP this year.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    I can definitely see Get Out taking Original Screenplay and Best Picture, though. In fact, a part of me almost expects it.

    The reason I don’t think Get Out can win is the at least 5 Oscar nominations rule: only one film has won with 5 nominations in the past 20 years (The Departed) and all other BP winners have had at least 6 Oscar nominations. Unfortunately this rule also affects my pick for BP, Call Me By Your Name, which also has only 4 nominations. It’s why I rule out Call Me, Get Out and The Post from winning BP automatically. The other six films all have more than 5 nominations.

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    Teridax
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    #1202480823

    I think Lady Bird is going to win. I can’t explain it and I am currently predicting The Shape Of Water but I keep on having this gut feeling about it. Female directed movie with a female lead who is mostly likable in a film that got great reviews (the best reviewed movie of the year) and a preferential ballot system for Best Picture may very well mean Lady Bird wins. I might change my mind, esp. once the DGA winner is announced, but I keep on thinking it’s going to be Lady Bird that wins the Oscar for BP this year.

    Same. Lady Bird doesn’t even need to win anything at Bafta since Moonlight won nothing there last year. Moonlight also under-performed at Bafta, like Lady Bird, because it was a late release in the U.K. There are legitimate reasons for every Lady Bird snub or loss thus far this season. If the Gerwig film can’t even win WGA, only then will its Best Picture Oscar chances be dead to me. I didn’t start predicting Moonlight to win last year until it won WGA over BP Oscar rivals Manchester by the Sea, La La Land, and Hell or High Water.

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    Milk Money
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    Get Out is still in it to win it. Universal’s going all out with their campaign.

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