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Toughest Category To Predict At The Oscars 2000-2016

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  • Joe Burns
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    Hey all! So I wanted to make a topic about which of the top 8 categories were the toughest to predict at the time of the Oscar season right before the ceremony. I’ll be starting at the 73rd Oscars and ending with last year’s race, the 89th Oscars.

    2000: Tricky since Best Supporting Actress and Best Picture were somewhat challenging to predict too. but I’ll go with Best Actor because Best Supporting Actor Oscar winner Del Toro won SAG in Best Actor instead of BSA. Crowe, Hanks, and Harris were in a three way race with Hanks as the safe choice and Crowe in second with some going out on a limb for Harris who was arguably overdue at the time. Rush and Barden had no chance of winning.

    2001: Best Actress. Despite Crowe vs Washington, many called Denzel’s win over the controversial Crowe that year. Best Picture was also hard as well, but Moulin Rouge and L.O.T.R: The Fellowship Of The Ring were in no way in Oscar’s wheelhouse compared with A Beautiful Mind, which was able to overcome it’s historical controversy’s and win. Best Actress became more difficult to predict given Spacek’s buzz fading after Berry’s SAG win and BAFTA loss to Dench. Kidman was also a major factor with her two performances and flashy role.

    2002: Hmmm, hard to say. Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress are obviously out as well as Picture, Director(everyone thought that Marshall would win) and the Screenplay races. I’ll say Best Actress given Kidman and Zellweger seemed to be evenly matched, but Best Actor can also work too with Nicholson and Day-Lewis chewing at each other’s heels.

    2003: Best Actor. Penn and Murray were in a tight competition that year with Depp then winning SAG out of nowhere. Penn won.

    2004: This was a fairly predictable year since I’d say Blanchett had the edge going into the ceremony given her SAG/BAFTA wins , lack of support for Closer, and the subtle nature of Madsen’s work in Sideways. And Eastwood had a clear edge with the DGA win. Million Dollar Baby came out of nowhere and had a strong edge over The Aviator, given the latter’s lack of love in the home stretch. Actor, Actress, the Screenplay races, and Supporting Actor were pretty easy too. I honestly have no idea. If pressed, I’d go with Best Adapted Screenplay only because Million Dollar Baby could have swept up the award along with it’s other major wins.

    2005: Best Supporting Actress. Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress were foregone conclusions in most people’s minds at the time. Clooney’s success with getting so many nominations that year gave him a strong advantage over Giamatti and Dillon/Gylenhall which were more or less tied for third place. The Screenplay races were easy. Weisz seemed like the favorite at the time, but Adams and Williams had shots too.

    2006: Best Picture. The three way race between Babel, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine was pretty difficult for experts to predict at the time.

    2007: Best Supporting Actress. This is pretty obvious. Moving on.

    2008: Best Actor. Rourke and Penn were evenly matched, although Penn’s victory seems a little obvious now. Best Supporting Actress might be better though?

    2009: None.

    2010. Best Supporting Actress and Best Director. People put too much stock in Leo’s adds and Fincher’s BAFTA win and ended up getting slapped in the face .

    2011: None. Most thought Davis would win and Dujardin had eclipsed Clooney IMO.

    2012: Best Director. With Afleck snubbed, this was one exciting category. Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay would follow.

    2013: Best Supporting Actress. Nyongo eventually prevailed, but Lawrence was widely predicted at the time as well. Best Actor was wrongly seen as a real race at the time I guess given MM’s now clear victory?

    2014: BP and BD were pretty clear to me, but many predicted Boyhood anyway after it’s BAFTA wins. Best Actor was pretty clear to me too. The Screenplay races seemed obvious with GBH as the likely winner, but Adapted Screenplay was somewhat hard to call at the time. I’ll go with that.

    2015: Hard to say. Best Picture seemed so competitive for much of the season, but then The Revenant started dominating. Since most expected Stallone and Vikander to take it, I think I’ll go with BP.

    2016: Afleck and Washington obviously were close, but Washington had all the buzz going into the ceremony. If not that, then Best Original Screenplay with some going with La La Land thinking it would sweep.

    Your thoughts?

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    Teridax
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    For me, the toughest category to predict in this entire time period would have been Supporting Actress the year Tilda Swinton won for Michael Clayton. You could have made legitimate arguments for Ruby Dee, Amy Ryan, Saoirse Ronan, and Cate Blanchett! Literally all 5 were strong contenders to win, let alone deserving nominees in their own rights! What a beautiful bloodbath of talent! 🙂

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    Joe Burns
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    Thanks so much for the comment Teridax! It’s always depressing to see so many views on a post but zero comments and I worked really hard on this one!

    Yeah, for me, B.S.A 2007 would be one of them. It was definitely a tricky one to predict and an exciting one to see the results of when the envelope was finally opened. Swinton’s win was definitely a shocker to me at the time and kind of a letdown lol.

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