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Upcoming awards contender people are overestimating and underestimating.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204411858

    The fall festivals are starting a little over a week from now, and after that we have more clear (even though nowhere near complete) picture of this upcoming awards race and it’s contenders. So, in these last stages of uncertanity, I thought it would be interesting if we share a film that’s widely predicted for major awards by many people (it doesn’t have to be a fall festival title), but you are very sceptical of and just can’t see happening. And then a film you think people are severy underestimating. It would be fun to look back later this season and see who was right.

    • This topic was modified 11 months, 2 weeks ago by The Oscarguy.
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    crabbie
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    I am skeptical for House of Gucci, Soggy Bottom, Tragedy of Macbeth, Tick Tick Boom and Belfast.

    I think people are underestimating Last Night in Soho, The Last Duel, Passing, The Hand of God, and The Humans

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    LA26
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    I don’t know what the reactions to The Last Duel will be, but I think people are underestimating Jodie Comer. People are definitely overestimating Lady Gaga for House of Gucci (and have been doing so before the trailer dropped) in an annoying way that makes me hope she doesn’t get nominated at all.

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    Stank83
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    I think some people here overestimating in terms of awards chances, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom and Dune.

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    The Oscarguy
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    My two major ones: Funny enough, both of these are Focus Features titles.

     

    A contender people are overestimating: Belfast. A movie that’s been labelled as Kenneth Branagh’s Roma. Many are thinking this will be big and allegedly it’s the biggest push by Focus this year. I know that on paper it has a lot going for it, but there also lies my problem. When I look at an upcoming film’s awards potential, it becomes kind of a circle. There’s awards bait and then there’s bait that’s so baity that it suddenly becomes not an awards film at all. This is a gut feeling I have and not to brag, but I did call many This Had Oscar Buzz titles from the last few years, for example movies like Boy Erased, The Goldfinch, Harriet, Ammonite and Hillbilly Elegy. Yes, some of those movies got nominated for stuff but they were not the heavyweights people thought. And I think Belfast is following a very similar pattern.

    In addition, Kenneth Branagh’s very spotty track-record recently. Ron Howard was another one with series of diminishing returns but people just assumed he would return to form with Elegy. I just have same vibes with Branagh. Also it being “a movie about director’s childhood”…there’s also The Hand of God this year and sorry but I don’t see a world where that isn’t a far superior film.

     

    Then, the underestimated: Last Night in Soho. I am probably hope-dicting with this one, it’s my second most anticipated film of the year, I love Edgar Wright’s work, I love the genre and I love both of those actresses. I aknowledge that. But every year there’s one movie that does not scream Oscar contender at all and the enire fall people say that there’s no way it gets in. Edgar Wright has the similar “overdue” narrative to people like Bong Joon Ho, Wes Anderson and Darren Aronofsky, who had that one big breakthrough contender. Wright will get nominated at some point because he is beloved by his peers and a movie where he stretches himself seems to be good one to do that. In addition, all the craft noms due to it’s period elements combined with a potential screenplay nomination.

     

     

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    The Oscarguy
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    Other ones I think are being overestimated: CODA, The French Dispatch, A Hero and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

    Underestimated: The Lost Daughter, The Humans, The Hand of God and Spencer.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    I might’ve mentioned this in other forums before, so I apologize to those who are probably tired of me bringing this up again.

    While I understand why some people are expecting Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story to be a big contender, I still think it’s being overestimated. The Robert Wise/Jerome Robbins version was a huge Oscar sweeper and is still regarded as one of the greatest movie musicals of all time, if not not, the greatest. So no matter how Spielberg’s version will be received, it’ll likely still have a huge uphill battle to climb due to inevitable comparisons to the 1961 classic.

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    The Oscarguy
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    I might’ve mentioned this in other forums before, so I apologize to those who are probably tired of me bringing this up again. While I understand why some people are expecting Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story to be a big contender, I still think it’s being overestimated. The Robert Wise/Jerome Robbins version was a huge Oscar sweeper and is still regarded as one of the greatest movie musicals of all time, if not not, the greatest. So no matter how Spielberg’s version will be received, it’ll likely still have a huge uphill battle to climb due to inevitable comparisons to the 1961 classic.

    I still have those concerns too. And the whole Ansel Elgort thing will come back.

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    loudtoilet
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    Overestimated: The Power of the Dog (for Picture/Director wins)

    Underestimated: Dune (for Picture/Director noms and wins)

    Overestimated: The Tragedy of MacBeth (for Acting noms)

    Underestimated: Dune (for acting noms – supporting)

     

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    mateil
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    Underestimated :

    Dune

    The Hand of God

    Last Night In Soho

    C’mon, C’mon

    The Worst Person In The World

     

    Overestimated :
    The Last Duel

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Soggy Bottom

     

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    veronikavoss
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    Aren’t most people predicting Dune for Picture/Director and a buttload of techs? I don’t get this impression that it’s being “underestimated” except perhaps by people who are expecting everyone in Hollywood to rally around it Titanic-style, which seems like a stretch.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    Last Night In Soho is definitely overestimated – the basic Academy won’t touch that movie even if it will be a critics push.

    Respect is overestimated. It simply doesn’t have the reviews, support, passion, and box office numbers to stay in the conversation in key categories for another 6-7 months, other than maybe Hudson, but I wouldn’t hold my breath about her chances either.

    FYC 2022 Emmys:

    Best Actress in a Drama Series: Sandra Oh in "Killing Eve"

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Sandra Oh in "The Chair"

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Kim Joo-ryoung in "Squid Game"

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    LA26
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    #1204412128

    Underestimated : Dune The Hand of God Last Night In Soho C’mon, C’mon The Worst Person In The World Overestimated : The Last Duel The Tragedy of Macbeth The French Dispatch House of Gucci Soggy Bottom

    The Last Duel isn’t being overestimated.

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    loudtoilet
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    Aren’t most people predicting Dune for Picture/Director and a buttload of techs? I don’t get this impression that it’s being “underestimated” except perhaps by people who are expecting everyone in Hollywood to rally around it Titanic-style, which seems like a stretch.

    Dune skeptics outweight Dune stans by large which is why it’s underestimated.  Unlike lets say TPOTD that has so many supporters you could rename the site Dog Derby. 🙂

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    Diamond Tier
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    Overestimated:
    Being the Ricardos
    Dune
    The Last Duel
    Spencer
    Tick, Tick…Boom!

    Underestimated:
    The Harder They Fall
    Passing

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