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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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    fefface
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    #1204258055

    Best Leading Actor: 01 – Adam Driver – THE LAST DUEL 02 – Benedict Cumberbatch – THE ELECTRIC LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN 03 – Michael B. Jordan – A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN 04 – Brendan Fraser – THE WHALE 05 – Clifton Collins Jr. – JOCKEY

    A Journal for Jordan sounds so overly sentimental – not my thing at all.

    Driver is not Lead in The Last Duel, Matt Damon is.

    The Whale could be a great comeback for Brendan Fraser but it does sound like a very small film. Also there’s an element of it I’m not sure will go down well.

     

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    schmids
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    #1204258057

    Given the amount of movies that MGM/UA are releasing I think they will score at least one in the BP list. I absolutely can see “House of Gucci” being the one but, since I’m picking “The Last Duel” from Fox, I’ll go with PTA now. BTW I’m reading the Gucci book and so far it’s been a blast.  

    I’ve also read House of Gucci and really enjoyed it. Some of the stuff that family did was wild, can’t wait to see it on screen.

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    boogiezen
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    #1204258067

    They may be making the wrong call, but right now the only info we have is that they’ve seen the movie and have chosen it as their main Oscar play. For all we know Branagh actually nailed it. Soho is definitely more of a crowd-backed movie: it’ll need to kill at the box office and get popular support if it’s going to be an Oscar player, they probably don’t want to risk making a campaign for a movie that won’t happen so they’ll wait and see if they can shift gears if Soho takes off.

    The problem with a movie depending on a Box Office aside from the critics reactions are sooo hard. It is like climbing a Mt. Everest for Last Night in Soho to even have a chance. That’s because of the film’s premise, a psychological thriller/horror is not an Oscar friendly.

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    LA26
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    #1204258124

    I’m currently reading The Last Duel and enjoying it so far. Jager-the author-writes in an engaging way and does a great job at providing information about the way life was back then, as well as context for the rivalry between Carrouges and Le Gris. I haven’t finished it (currently at part 2 of the book, which takes place after the parliament of Paris gives the order for the duel to take place), but I think I understand what Dariusz meant when he talked about the structure of different points of views in the film. If the film is faithful to the book, Comer could have some great scenes.

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    schmids
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    #1204258142

    If the film is faithful to the book, Comer could have some great scenes.

    I’ve been saying this for a while but I’m going to keep saying it – Comer will go Lead.

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    Rowan
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    #1204258153

    The problem with a movie depending on a Box Office aside from the critics reactions are sooo hard. It is like climbing a Mt. Everest for Last Night in Soho to even have a chance. That’s because of the film’s premise, a psychological thriller/horror is not an Oscar friendly.

    Exactly. It’s the same thing Get Out had to do a few years ago, and Get Out had an even worse release date. It’s been done, it’s just unlikely.

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    HaimOnRye
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    #1204258174

    Same with Don’t Worry Darling, I hope it is not the case that these two movies cancel each other out because I am looking forward to both for different reasons. I cannot help but see them as competition to each other, horror/thrillers with retro vibes. Maybe it’s the fact that I know so little about LNS’ plot.. do we have any more comprehensive storyline other than what is on imdb? I am also wondering if DWD is in the competition for make-up/costumes, since Arianne Phillips has a good background.

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204258370

    Below-the-line Predictions for May

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN
    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    Cruella

    Don’t Worry Darling

    Dune

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel

    BEST FILM EDITING
    Don’t Look Up

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    West Side Story

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale

    BEST SOUND
    Dune

    Eternals

    Top Gun: Maverick

    West Side Story

    A Quiet Place: Part II

    Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
    The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

    Dune – Hans Zimmer

    Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat

    The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat

    Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

    Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG
    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Dear Evan Hansen

    Tick, Tick…Boom

    Defying Gravity

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

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    crabbie
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    #1204258695

    If the film is faithful to the book, Comer could have some great scenes.

    I have Comer winning in supporting for this. It’s most likely to be the most sympathetic character that gets nominated and its baity as hell. Her win would be reminiscent of European ingenue (Alicia Vikander) winning and I really see it happening especially after her Emmy win.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204258816

    I have Comer winning in supporting for this. It’s most likely to be the most sympathetic character that gets nominated and its baity as hell. Her win would be reminiscent of European ingenue (Alicia Vikander) winning and I really see it happening especially after her Emmy win.

    I’m with schmids. They’re not going to make a movie with this subject matter and have the lead female character go Supporting while one of the men goes Lead. Either all three go Supporting as co-leads or its Comer and Damon in Lead and Driver in Supporting.

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    crabbie
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    #1204258837

    I’m with schmids. They’re not going to make a movie with this subject matter and have the lead female character go Supporting while one of the men goes Lead. Either all three go Supporting as co-leads or its Comer and Damon in Lead and Driver in Supporting.

    I agree with you yeah but I still think the studio could category fraud Comer in supporting to have a higher chance of winning. Lead actress being more competitive might make Comer’s win less attainable.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204258843

    I agree with you yeah but I still think the studio could category fraud Comer in supporting to have a higher chance of winning. Lead actress being more competitive might make Comer’s win less attainable.

    That’s true, but I think the studio would be aware of the optics of putting Damon in Lead and Comer Supporting and will campaign her Lead regardless. Either that or as I say, they get around the situation by campaigning all three leads in Supporting.

    All that said Damon isn’t getting nominated regardless and Driver will have to be undeniable to overcome the nature of his character. Comer will be the acting play for this one for sure. Plus the plot synopsis that came out around the time of the test screening seemed to zero in on her character.

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    crabbie
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    #1204258850

    All that said Damon isn’t getting nominated regardless and Driver will have to be undeniable to overcome the nature of his character.

    Why is that? Im not quite familiar with the book but from the synopsis it seemed like their roles would be meaty. Do you think Gucci will be Driver’s player this year?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204258864

    Why is that? Im not quite familiar with the book but from the synopsis it seemed like their roles would be meaty. Do you think Gucci will be Driver’s player this year?

    I don’t know, just can’t see this being Damon’s Oscar comeback. And it’s not that Driver’s role isn’t meaty that gives me pause, it certainly is, it’s the nature of his character’s villainy.

    As for what will be his best shot this year, I would like for it to be Annette as it feels like the kind of project an actor like Driver should win for. But actors in musicals never win, and actors in original musicals even more rarely, plus its going to be weird as hell so yes probably Gucci.

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    crabbie
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    #1204258884

    I don’t know, just can’t see this being Damon’s Oscar comeback. And it’s not that Driver’s role isn’t meaty that gives me pause, it certainly is, it’s the nature of his character’s villainy.

    Damon got that ridiculous nomination for The Martian so you never know. Driver’s character will be loathed by everyone and I don’t think the villainous nature of his character will be a barrier. Fassbender played a slave owner rapist and was nominated.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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