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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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    schmids
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    #1204259038

    BEST ACTOR

    1. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
    2. Christian Bale (Untitled David O. Russell film)
    3. Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
    4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
    5. Will Smith (King Richard)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1. Richard Jenkins (Nightmare Alley)
    2. Adam Driver (The Last Duel)
    3. Bradley Cooper (Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson film)
    4. John David Washington (Untitled David O. Russell film)
    5. Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)

    Belfast in Picture? Do these people know something we don’t?

    Also my personal bias aside, can’t see Bradley Cooper getting double nominated. I currently have him not getting in at all next year.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204259079

    I don’t quite understand the Kirsten predictions? Especially in lead. From the people I know that have read it say that her character could be or feel more supporting and that she’s not even the most interesting character in the book. But that’s their words not mine obviously. Idk it seems like people want her to happen rather than actually have reasons to predict her to happen. It’s not even like the industry cares that much about her and she’s definitely not overdue to them like this site claims her to be.

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    crabbie
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    #1204259088

    It’s not even like the industry cares that much about her and she’s definitely not overdue to them like this site claims her to be.

    Sigh this is why I feel she could be the CC-SAG snubbed. I think people are expecting Campion to have written a juicer role for Dunst and for The Power of the Dog to be a player in all 4 acting categories. It’s definitely too early to see where she places but she has a better shot at a nomination for supporting than lead by a mile.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204259167

    From the people I know that have read it say that her character could be or feel more supporting and that she’s not even the most interesting character in the book.

    I’ve read it. She’s 100% the 2nd most interesting character in the book, and since Campion’s beefing up the role I’m even more intrigued because I’d love to know even more about Rose. Look up some book reviews and you’ll see that’s general consensus.

    And of course people want Dunst to happen. People, including me, have seen Dunst as deserving many times since Interview of the Vampire, so…for almost 3 decades now.

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    SN
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    #1204259171

    I can see The Last Duel being delayed to summer 2022. 20th Century Fox already has West Side Story and its sister company Searchlight has The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley and maybe Next Goal Wins. Previous epic films directed by Ridley Scott were also released in May (Gladiator, Kingdom of Heaven, Robin Hood).

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    kaziz
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    #1204259176

    Sigh this is why I feel she could be the CC-SAG snubbed. I think people are expecting Campion to have written a juicer role for Dunst and for The Power of the Dog to be a player in all 4 acting categories. It’s definitely too early to see where she places but she has a better shot at a nomination for supporting than lead by a mile.

    Interestingly, this revives the “is Best Actress more competitive than Best Supporting Actress debate” that I brought up a thread or two ago. AwardsWatch puts Dunst out of the top 10 in supporting but at 6 in lead. That would make it seem that supporting is more competitive but I dunno where I stand on that as of now tbh. From the book: only Cumberbatch is lead, & Dunst teeters on the edge of lead and supporting so if TPOTD hits, then she’ll be put in Lead. Simple.

    Mild correction: Campion doesn’t need to have written a juicier role for Dunst, it’s a fantastic role. Really, please do read the book—it is genuinely a fantastic book. Second, from what we know, Campion is definitely beefing up Dunst’s role/presence for sure. I don’t know if that makes it juicier, but regardless if you read the book and saw that an adaptation was being made—you’d predict Cumberbatch, Dunst, Smit-McPhee, Plemons in that order.

    Also—I really feel like people misunderstand Dunst’s support. She’s in cult films, you’ll find articles literally every month or so about how she’s underrated, under-appreciated, hell a whole cottage industry of YouTube videos. Critics think she’s hella underrated. They have for a long, long time (Roger Ebert did too, and it’s been some years since he passed away). Not to mention her past work, like Marie Antoinette, Drop Dead Gorgeous, Melancholia, is constantly talked about now (did you guys see the spate of articles recently about how Marie Antoinette was misunderstood?) I think it’s really silly to say things like “the industry doesn’t care about her” when…frankly, she hasn’t made enough films recently to test that theory. But critics & audiences have long adored her. Hell she won critic’s prizes for The Cat’s Meow which literally nobody saw—CC is far less likely to snub her than than SAG. My general take: she hasn’t been in BP nominees. That’s the real reason, not that “the industry doesn’t care about her.” She’s steadily working in the same industry with people like PTA and Sofia Coppola and Jane Campion singing her praises.

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    kaziz
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    #1204259189

    Also……like…..this industry nominates people every year who there was no evidence they “cared about” until suddenly they do / or more likely, they appear in BP films. It’s hardly some vast conspiracy.

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    JV
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    #1204259221

    Jane Campion directed two Oscar winning performances and won Screenplay. The only reason The Piano didn’t win Best Picture and Campion didn’t win Best Director was because something called Schindler’s List came out that same year.

    This century she only directed two movies (Bright Star and she even tricked us to think Abbie Cornish would have a good career and In the Cut, which was panned but she probably did that for fun trying to see how she would do with thriller stuff) and a TV show (Top of the Lake, for which she got three Emmy nominations and got nominations to Moss and Peter Mullan).

    Campion is incredible with actors, so Dunst has pretty much a shot (like everyone else in the cast) if the movie is a contender and if she has the material.

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    JV
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    #1204259230

    And Dune is going to Venice and it will be released on theaters for 45 days before hitting HBO Max.

    So it’s pretty obvious that this will be Warner Bros main push for this season. I don’t know if they would push the movie if it’s not crowdpleasing enough, so it might be not so much of a snoozefest like so many people (and myself) are thinking it will be.

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    crabbie
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    #1204259232

    Female directors usually get their female performances nominations so Dunst should be safe.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Lucas
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    #1204259242

    Amazon is trying to buy MGM 👀

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    SN
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    #1204259248

    And Dune is going to Venice and it will be released on theaters for 45 days before hitting HBO Max.

    So it’s pretty obvious that this will be Warner Bros main push for this season. I don’t know if they would push the movie if it’s not crowdpleasing enough, so it might be not so much of a snoozefest like so many people (and myself) are thinking it will be.

    They’re trying to make it another Joker, but I’m not sure that’s gonna work this time.

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    JV
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    #1204259265

    So, Warner actually denied that Dune will get in theaters before HBO Max. It will premiere in theaters and HBO Max on the same day.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/jfuentes/status/1394441348917301251

    What a messy company, for fuck’s sake.

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    kaziz
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    #1204259350

    I think it’s mildly ridiculous that your issue with them as a realistic screen couple is their body types. Just thought we were beyond that. And what me having read the book has to do with it I have no idea.

    Sorry (genuinely) that I didn’t flag this more, but me not being able to see Dunst & Dano together was most definitely influenced by my having read the book well before and the nature of their characters (thus why I said “maybe her Beguiled character, but not this one”). You don’t have to believe me, you can definitely argue “you’re just trying to save your ass in retrospect” because you’re right it didn’t seem like what I was saying. But it’s the truth, that’s where my confusion was coming from.

    Outside of that context, Dunst has this weird/awesome relationship with the very scrawny, much younger Theodore Pellerin in On Becoming a God in Central Florida, and I had no compunction with it in the least. I just couldn’t picture them together as Rose & George.

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    Croman
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    #1204259352

    Also……like…..this industry nominates people every year who there was no evidence they “cared about” until suddenly they do / or more likely, they appear in BP films. It’s hardly some vast conspiracy.

    Exactly. It’s like saying Scarlett Johansson won’t get in for Marriage Story because the Academy never cared about her in the past. If Power of the Dog gets strong reviews at its Venice premiere, Dunst is happening everywhere along with Cumberbatch and it will be a long overdue nomination like Johansson.

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