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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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    crabbie
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    #1204254142

    That early September release date for The Card Counter pretty much disqualifies it from getting into Picture. OUATIH was Tarantino and had huge stars while Blackkklansman touched on an important subject matter at that time. I’m just wondering if Dafoe can get in supporting actor for this or his other vehicles this year.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    diego
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    #1204254207

    Ugh… Dafoe just needs all of his films (and performances) to be acclaimed and he could sweep critic awards for all of them. He would only get 1 of them nominated at the Oscars but if he has a strong year overall then I could see him easily winning.

    I just hope his nomination comes from a BP nominee tho, whichever of his films that is.

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    kaziz
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    #1204254263

    I feel pundits are really underestimating it in general and going for “obvious” stuff like House of Gucci and West Side Story. I have it winning Picture, Director, and Lead Actor until proven otherwise. I don’t buy Denzel winning a third for an unconventional Macbeth adaptation.

    I agree. And as much as I hate saying it, Cumberbatch has the “true lead”, flashier role and is likelier—as of now—to win as compared to Dunst. That being said, Dunst also has a strong long-snubbed narrative and a pretty GOLD role. Her character kinda brings the whole thing to life and since McKenzie and indigenous actors are beefed up, it looks like Dunst will be the one who will set even more things in motion (if she didn’t have enough already) by her arrival in the film. Campion clearly wants to say something important about the relationship between indigenous workers and white ranch-owners.

    If there’s 2 acting noms, it’ll be Cumberbatch & Dunst, not Cumberbatch & Plemons (I see people predicting Plemons more because he’s Plemons but honestly: the role isn’t there. Plemons will probably get nominated anyway though, he’s got his own strong “any day now” narrative).

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    kaziz
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    #1204254268

    That early September release date for The Card Counter pretty much disqualifies it from getting into Picture. OUATIH was Tarantino and had huge stars while Blackkklansman touched on an important subject matter at that time. I’m just wondering if Dafoe can get in supporting actor for this or his other vehicles this year.

    I dunno about this. Early Sept is conventionally “the start of the season” with the trifecta of Telluride-Toronto-Venice. It seems like the festivals will be happening, but they won’t have AS many people there, which just means a slightly expanded calendar. It’s still a more unconventional year than any non-pandemic year.

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    Calvin
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    #1204254272

    The only movies in 40 years to win Best Picture without acting nominations The Last Emperor (1987): Directed by the r*pist Bernardo Bertolucci, it won all the Oscars it was nominated for.  

    John Lone’s snub remains unforgivable till this day.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    crabbie
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    #1204254278

    I dunno about this. Early Sept is conventionally “the start of the season” with the trifecta of Telluride-Toronto-Venice. It seems like the festivals will be happening, but they won’t have AS many people there, which just means a slightly expanded calendar. It’s still a more unconventional year than any non-pandemic year.

    The eligibility window is still the same. And isn’t it being released the same day as the start of the TIFF festival? The TIFF contenders will drown out the film by October and November.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204254312

    The eligibility window is still the same. And isn’t it being released the same day as the start of the TIFF festival? The TIFF contenders will drown out the film by October and November.

    Sure but given Canada’s trajectory and immense travel restrictions, it does not seem like TIFF will be anywhere near the event it usually is, which means September is actually not a bad time for a film to drop before all its contenders crowd up each others’ space. We’ll be discussing early reactions from TIFF on here while actual eyeballs will be on the film itself.

    Telluride might be an event but it’s not usually a news-making festival in any case. Venice maybe.

    At this point I think we’re still more worried about when a film hits streaming as compared to box office. And Netflix doesn’t have THAT many Oscar films.

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    Lucas
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    #1204254322

    I don’t understand the conversation around The Card Counter in this forum. Paul Schrader got his first Oscar nomination of his forty-year career just two years ago, and now he’s got a big Oscar contender in his hands? I don’t buy it. Very excited to see it tho.

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    fefface
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    #1204254346

    Wes Anderson is probably the only director on this year’s slate who has both a cult following and is remarkably consistent in the reception of his films. After finally hitting big at Oscars for The Grand Budapest Hotel, it does seems like The French Dispatch is super well-placed.

    It will also potentially have the Rudin factor to contend with – he was EP on the project and has produced all Anderson’s films since The Royal Tenenbaums.

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    kaziz
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    #1204254366

    I don’t understand the conversation around The Card Counter in this forum. Paul Schrader got his first Oscar nomination of his forty-year career just two years ago, and now he’s got a big Oscar contender in his hands? I don’t buy it. Very excited to see it tho.

    Yeah well, when you make a film as critically-acclaimed as First Reformed and get way more snubs than seems fair, but you also get your first Oscar nod for a screenplay…people tend to anticipate your next move!

    It’s not exactly news that exciting directors tend to get nods in Screenplay categories before subsequently making work that hits at the Oscars in a much bigger way. Christopher Nolan, Wes Anderson, Yorgos Lanthimos, Guillermo del Toro, Noah Baumbach, Alexander Payne, Charlie Kaufmann, Paul Thomas Anderson, Richard Linklater, Alfonso Cuaron and countless other writer-directors first got recognized in the screenplay category before subsequent films hit big.

    In Schrader’s case, it does help that it’s not just that First Reformed revitalized his career but also that there’s a lot of respect for Taxi Driver and Raging Bull in retrospect. Also explains how he got a pretty cool cast. He definitely seems to have come out of a pretty shitty slump: until very recently, he’s directed very few of his own screenplays.

    I’m obviously not saying it’s DEFINITELY going to happen. He’s not Wes Anderson or Jane Campion, nothing is certain. But he really turned the tide for himself there with First Reformed, so I’m…intrigued.

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    wolfali
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    #1204254379

    I don’t think the Scott Rudin factor is going to play much of a role with either The French Dispatch or The Tragedy of Macbeth. Frances McDormand and her husband have worked for many years with Scott Rudin and he was a producer on The Tragedy of Macbeth yet it’s not like the controversy hindered her or Nomadland‘s chances at winning Actress and Picture in the midst of this story.

    By February how much will this story be in conversation for it to be a realistic hurdle for Macbeth or The French Dispatch?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    fefface
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    #1204254396

    I don’t think the Scott Rudin factor is going to play much of a role with either The French Dispatch or The Tragedy of Macbeth. Frances McDormand and her husband have worked for many years with Scott Rudin and he was a producer on The Tragedy of Macbeth yet it’s not like the controversy hindered her or Nomadland‘s chances at winning Actress and Picture in the midst of this story. By February how much will this story be in conversation for it to be a realistic hurdle for Macbeth or The French Dispatch?

    Well Rudin didn’t make Nomadland so it’s not that surprising that it didn’t come up.  He did make both Macbeth and The French Dispatch.

    Not saying it will definitely be a factor but we have two directors (Coen and Anderson) who have extremely long working relationships with Rudin so I can’t see them not being asked about it.

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    Miles
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    #1204254401

    Willem Dafoe’s role in Nightmare Alley is pretty small (at least compared to Jenkins), and I can’t find any clues about the size of his role in The Northman. The Card Counter probably won’t be a big player anyway, and he has a cameo in The French Dispatch. I’d say his best bet is The Northman, but honestly he’ll probably have to wait for 2022’s Poor Things, directed by Yorgos Lanthimos.

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    wolfali
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    #1204254403

    Well Rudin didn’t make Nomadland so it’s not that surprising that it didn’t come up.

    Frances McDormand had worked with Rudin for a very long time as well (and on The Tragedy of Macbeth).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    kaziz
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    #1204254412

    By February how much will this story be in conversation for it to be a realistic hurdle for Macbeth or The French Dispatch?

    I kinda-sorta agree with you but at the same time it could also stop something dead in its tracks before it even takes off. People could simply avoid the movies or something, simple as that. I don’t think it’s totally easy to predict where this will go.

    I do think that realistically, McDormand’s links to Rudin aren’t as…obvious. Joel Coen & Wes Anderson will be under more scrutiny for sure, but I can’t tell yet how much of an effect it’ll have.

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