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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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    Anything
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    Feb 28th, 2021
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    #1204260561

    Netflix sucks at getting wins. In terms of nominations, they have done very well the past two years. They’ve gotten multiple movies into the Best Picture lineup and multiple actors into the Lead Actor lineup. Which other studio can make that claim?

    Also, like Sir Pierce has mentioned, there seems to be a lot of Campion bias here. I think her movie will play well and be a Best Picture nominee, but history is against her. And she certainly doesn’t have a better track record than McKay, whose last two movies were top 5 contenders. Even if Don’t Look Up is completely panned, it will remain Netflix’s top priority (during nominations phase) just to keep the stars happy so they come back to work with Netflix.

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204260606

    Anybody that thinks Dear Evan Hansen is an Oscar contender is delusional. The trailer tries to wring undeserved tears out of you. R.I.P. Charles Grodin, the one and only Heartbreak Kid.

     

    maybe song contender… Just like La La Land and Greatest Showman. That was also already in the trailer

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    LA26
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    #1204260644

    I know the film is coming out next spring, but Alexander Skarsgard briefly talked about The Northman in an interview. He says it’s “horrific” and “violent”: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheFilmUpdates/status/1394716881584459777

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    SN
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    #1204260656

    I’m confused why some are predicting JHud to win for Respect. Is the Academy really going to give her 2 Oscars, this time in lead, to an “actress” who is mainly known for her singing. She showed up out of nowhere in 2006 and wowed everyone and then hibernated for 15 years and now we think they’re just gonna give her another Oscar for the most obvious role she could do. I don’t buy it

    I’m not confident about J-Hud, but if Respect gets merely decent reviews and makes great box office, I can see her happening. It doesn’t matter a lot if she’s not that good of an actress. I mean, Rami Malek literally won for that awful caricature.

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    Fletcher
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    #1204260690

    My predictions for May (and also a little personal of whom I want to see nominated, just playing for the universe)

    Best Actor
    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
    Peter Dinklage – Cyrano
    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
    Will Smith – King Richard
    (Alternate: Jason Isaacs – Mass)

    Best actress
    Kristen Stewart – Spencer
    Halle Berry – Bruised
    Jennifer Hudson – Respect
    Martha Plimpton – Mass
    Lady Gaga – The House of Gucci
    (Alternate: Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Frances Mcdormand – Macbeth)

    Best Supporting Actress
    Dakota Johnson – The Lost Daugter
    Ann Dowd – Mass
    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley
    Mia Wasikowska – Bergman Island
    Ruth Negga – Passing
    (Alternate: Haley Bennet – Cyrano)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley
    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
    John David Washington – Canterbury Glass
    Al Pacino – House of the Gucci
    Adam Driver – The Last Duel
    (Alternate: Marlon Wayans – Respect)

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204260789

    May above-the-line (excluding screenplays) Oscar predictions

    BEST PICTURE
    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Coda (Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Don’t Look Up, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Last Duel

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Ridley Scott – House of Gucci

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos

    BEST ACTOR
    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom

    Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall

    Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    Marlee Matlin – CODA

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale

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    wolfali
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    #1204260834

    I really feel like Mass will get shut out with that distributor.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    T3B
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    #1204260859

    I’m really curious about Don’t look up since perusing what’s alledged to be its script. I find that I can’t quite confidently say it’s gonna stick with the academy.

    Now if we were talking Globes I would confidently see it be a hit in their comedy section.

    Upon first read I didn’t like it, but after reading it about three weeks after, I liked it enough for what it was.
    A lot will depend on the delivery (lines & expressions) by the cast.

    As of now I can ‘see’ Meryl, Leo, Cate, as being well cast & likely to excel in their respective roles while going through it. Chris Evans also depending on what role he shot for.

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204260891

    I really feel like Mass will get shut out with that distributor.

    It has a shot if it goes the critical darling route. Don’t think we’ll see more than 1 or 2 acting nods, though, even if that’s the case. We’ve seen small, relatively un-Oscary studios do well with undeniable films in recent years so it’s possible Bleecker Street will have improved its campaign strategy and will be able to get one or two acclaimed performances in. I could see Dowd and/ or Plimpton scoring a high number of wins with critics groups and getting in with that alongside the fact they’re both probably well-respected in the industry.  Interestingly it’s only slated as a 4th Quarter release right now. If they release on a good date, perhaps late on so it breaks at a good time despite limited campaigning, that could work in their favour. It is unlikely though. I anticipate it going under the radar and maybe just hitting the Indie Spirits.

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    boogiezen
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    #1204260897

    I know the film is coming out next spring, but Alexander Skarsgard briefly talked about The Northman in an interview. He says it’s “horrific” and “violent”: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheFilmUpdates/status/1394716881584459777

    In short not an Oscar friendly but Focus at least could have premiere it on May at Cannes. Oh well.

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    gorman
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    #1204260915

    I’m really curious about Don’t look up since perusing what’s alledged to be its script. I find that I can’t quite confidently say it’s gonna stick with the academy. Now if we were talking Globes I would confidently see it be a hit in their comedy section. Upon first read I didn’t like it, but after reading it about three weeks after, I liked it enough for what it was. A lot will depend on the delivery (lines & expressions) by the cast. As of now I can ‘see’ Meryl, Leo, Cate, as being well cast & likely to excel in their respective roles while going through it. Chris Evans also depending on what role he shot for.

    I have a hard time seeing an ultra-starry Netflix-McKay link up going without major noms. I won’t call it a sure-fire thing, because I said similar about The Laundromat because of its director and cast. It does just feel like it is pre-determined to be one of Netflix’s big pushes though. It’s unquestionably its starriest cast of the year, and it has the best release date, so it feels like they’re scheduling it for an awards run. McKay has proven his ability to be divisive but still win enough support to propel his films to across the board noms. Vice got a baffling eight, after all, and that script hurts to read. If you’d told me prior to seeing it that the Cheneys would randomly perform a Shakespeare scene in the bedroom, I’d have been placing bets on the Razzies. I’m just gonna assume Don’t Look Up is in unless it eventually gets completely slammed.

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    Jacob Boe
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    #1204260921

    To the person asking if a distributor or studio or whatever ever got three acting nominations in one category: 2002 Best Actress (Nicole Kidman, Renee Zellweger, and Salma Hayek all for Miramax I think???). Also, whomever said vice was mixed critically. It wasn’t. It was polarizing. BIG difference. Vice got in not only at industry things but also at critics things, because there were enough people who loved it. Dont Look Up wont be loved. It will be liked by some, disliked by others. It’s not as intelligently written. Dont Look Up will get like in the 60s on RT, and high 50s or low 60s on MC. No Oscar nominations, sans techs if there are any. It IS Netflixs main push, as seen from their movie trailer thing months or weeks ago, but eventually they’ll realize PotD is their best bet and they’ll go for that. I dunno what else Netflix will get in for BP, but we know theyll get two in since they have the past two years. Either Blonde, Passing, or Unbroken. Unless DLU pulls an Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close but like… is that seriously gonna happen?

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    Croman
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    #1204260942

    Dowd being the only nom for Mass would be really strange. It will either be shut out completely or get the 3 acting noms(add Plimpton & Isaacs) + screenplay package. Those are the only 2 paths I see for it.

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204260952

    I dunno what else Netflix will get in for BP, but we know theyll get two in since they have the past two years. Either Blonde, Passing, or Unbroken. Unless DLU pulls an Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close but like… is that seriously gonna happen?

    Netflix has gotten 2 BP nominees in each of the past two years but I think with Apple now having actual contenders this year and next year, Netflix may only get one. Last year there were 3 streaming films nominated (Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Sound of Metal), the year before there were two (The Irishman, Marriage Story), and the year before that there was 1 (Roma). Going by this it seems to me that maximum streaming films that can be nominated next year will probably be four as the number is increasing and the field will expand to 10 nominees, but I think it’ll be 3 as last year was a special year. Because of this, I think Netflix may have to focus on one film since the streaming film market is going to be increasingly saturated with Apple and Amazon and the Academy doesn’t seem to want to open up to streaming too quickly as evidenced by the Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami snubs this past year.

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    Jacob Boe
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    #1204260973

    Netflix has gotten 2 BP nominees in each of the past two years but I think with Apple now having actual contenders this year and next year, Netflix may only get one. Last year there were 3 streaming films nominated (Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Sound of Metal), the year before there were two (The Irishman, Marriage Story), and the year before that there was 1 (Roma). Going by this it seems to me that maximum streaming films that can be nominated next year will probably be four as the number is increasing and the field will expand to 10 nominees, but I think it’ll be 3 as last year was a special year. Because of this, I think Netflix may have to focus on one film since the streaming film market is going to be increasingly saturated with Apple and Amazon and the Academy doesn’t seem to want to open up to streaming too quickly as evidenced by the Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami snubs this past year.

    I don’t really think most academy voters think like that. They’re just people. It’s more likely they just didn’t like them that much. Ma Rainey and One Night were good, not great, i.e. not Best Picture-nominated. Your point about other streaming services is good though. Noted.

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