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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204254420

    I think there’s no way the backlash will harm that film because we all have that abusive boss, and they are still in that managing/directing spot at our office. That’s not just a problem of entertainment industry, but it’s everywhere, and it’ll be very hypocritical for people to kindle the backlash while doing nothing to their own work environment. When we talk about Coen brothers, there’s a high probability that they know that, but I guess they don’t have balls to criticise that. It’s not like everyone before #metoo would publicly reprimand sexual offense, right? It doesn’t help that they’re men, and their film really promoted masculinity in the way that when they reprimand abusive behaviour, it will hurt their filmography which is very graphic. It’s so easy for them to answer those questions (and to remove Rudin from the producing team).

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    fefface
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    #1204254443

    Frances McDormand had worked with Rudin for a very long time as well (and on The Tragedy of Macbeth).

    I’m not disputing that. But being in films produced by Rudin and directing films produced by him isn’t the same thing. So I’m not surprised it didn’t come up with Nomadland. And like I said already – I’m not saying it definitely will be a factor. But it could come up.

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    wolfali
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    #1204254525

    But being in films produced by Rudin and directing films produced by him isn’t the same thing.

    She produced The Tragedy of Macbeth with Rudin.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    fefface
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    #1204254530

    She produced The Tragedy of Macbeth with Rudin.

    And like I said – it could come up when promoting Macbeth . You made reference to Nomadland, and I said I’m not surprised it didn’t come up when awarding a film he had literally nothing to do with.

    I don’t understand why you’re so determined to prove me ‘wrong’ when I already said twice I’m not saying it will definitely be an issue.

    And McDormand isn’t listed as a producer for Macbeth, only Coen. Not saying she’s not as tbh I don’t know, hence why I only talked about her being in his films, but she’s not on the list.

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204254573

    I feel like that’s all we’ll get for a while lol because both Jane Campion and Kirsten Dunst love shrouding their entire shebangs in complete mystery (that’s why we have no footage in the Netflix trailer I think). Dunno if it’s going to Cannes or not (but why would it?)

    It’s going to Venice

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204254575

         Dev Patel made SAG and BAFTA. He was snubbed because 1) the academy is racist.

    No. He was snubbed rightfully because the kid from the first 1/3 of the movie completely upstaged him and Patel and Pinto part was the weakest of the whole thing. Romance was inane and the sandwich scene should have earned Pinto a Razzie.

    If there was justice, that movie wouldn’t have won anything and TDK would have swept all. As it is, TDK was snubbed but made the long lasting mark. Slumdog did not.

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    gorman
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    #1204254580

    I don’t foresee Rudin being a huge stumbling block for the films he’s connected to. Far as I’m aware they’re removing his name from the films, which is quite a cynical move but will mean voters aren’t rewarding him and I suspect they’ll draw the line there. It will probably come up in the season, but I don’t see it burying films unless a campaign/ director handles it really poorly. More well-known controversial and actually nominated people have won awards in the recent past, and Bohemian Rhapsody is testament to the fact that you can remove a person’s name from a project/ campaign and almost completely dodge the controversy – Singer is more famous and has done much worse, more publicly known things than Rudin (who, it almost goes without saying, is still awful).

    I see most of the ire this season being directed towards O. Russell, whose name will be plastered all over Canterbury Glass and whose controversies will probably re-emerge in tandem with the films release because of that, whilst Rudin’s will probably have been swept under the rug a little by then because he is in the shadows anyway.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204254583

    Really think people are underrating films like Three Thousand Years of Longing, Hand of God, The Card Counter, The Lost Daughter.   

     

    I feel pundits are really underestimating it in general and going for “obvious” stuff like House of Gucci and West Side Story. I have it winning Picture, Director, and Lead Actor until proven otherwise. I don’t buy Denzel winning a third for an unconventional Macbeth adaptation.

    I actually think the opposite. I think that last year forced AMPAS to nominate movies that otherwise would have been lost in the shuffle. Nomadland wouldn’t cause it was deemed a frontrunner for Director at least since before covid delays, but PYW absolutely benefitted from covid. The movie was a boxoffice flop (considering it was strictly for adults they didn’t flock to it whereas some parents risked it to take kids to Tom and Jerry)  and no doubt it would have done just as badly in a stacked winter season.

    Point being, I think that trend will favor more traditional, glitzy studio movies this time around. Call it indie fatigue.

    Card Counter may become an actor vehicle but I don’t see it as a Picture/Director one. I’m getting Uncut Gems vibe here.

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    fefface
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    #1204254595

    I actually think the opposite. I think that last year forced AMPAS to nominate movies that otherwise would have been lost in the shuffle. Nomadland wouldn’t cause it was deemed a frontrunner for Director at least since before covid delays, but PYW absolutely benefitted from covid. The movie was a boxoffice flop (considering it was strictly for adults they didn’t flock to it whereas some parents risked it to take kids to Tom and Jerry) and no doubt it would have done just as badly in a stacked winter season. Point being, I think that trend will favor more traditional, glitzy studio movies this time around. Call it indie fatigue. Card Counter may become an actor vehicle but I don’t see it as a Picture/Director one. I’m getting Uncut Gems vibe here.

    I agree that big studio films will dominate the nominations next year, but I do wonder if given how stacked Oct-Dec is there might actually be a bit of ‘awards movie’ fatigue that leads to a couple of unexpected indie nominations.

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    wolfali
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    #1204254601

    One place I do think the indies can break through are the acting categories. Especially Actor which feels more open than the rest. I won’t be surprised if we have an Adams in Arrival type miss there.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    gorman
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    #1204254603

    I actually think the opposite. I think that last year forced AMPAS to nominate movies that otherwise would have been lost in the shuffle. Nomadland wouldn’t cause it was deemed a frontrunner for Director at least since before covid delays, but PYW absolutely benefitted from covid. The movie was a boxoffice flop (considering it was strictly for adults they didn’t flock to it whereas some parents risked it to take kids to Tom and Jerry) and no doubt it would have done just as badly in a stacked winter season. Point being, I think that trend will favor more traditional, glitzy studio movies this time around. Call it indie fatigue. Card Counter may become an actor vehicle but I don’t see it as a Picture/Director one. I’m getting Uncut Gems vibe here.

    The Power of the Dog probably won’t get lost in the shuffle, though. It’s a Netflix film from a prestigious director. Working on the basis that they appear to be pushing 2 films per year from esteemed directors working on a big passion project (Cuaron, Baumbach, Scorsese, Fincher, Sorkin), this and Don’t Look Up appear to be their two biggest pushes for prizes. The cast is also fairly starry. It may have a bit of an indie feel about it, like Marriage Story did, but Netflix don’t really release and campaign like a typical indie film would – if it gets critical praise, they’ll pour lots of money into its campaign.

    Granted, it isn’t a glizty Hollywood film either, but there’s no way all 10 nominations in Picture go that way – there’s gonna be room for a few critically acclaimed, well-campaigned less traditionally Hollywood films. The awards generally seem to be trending in that direction too. Moonlight, Parasite and Nomadland almost seem like wins resistant to traditional glitz and glamour, so there’ll be enough voters hospitable to more indie films.

    I only see The Power of the Dog not being firmly in the discussion if it performs relatively poorly with critics and gains limited traction in critic awards while something like Blonde, Passing or The Harder They Fall picks up its slack and takes over the reins with Netflix’s campaigning.

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    fefface
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    #1204254618

    I only see The Power of the Dog not being firmly in the discussion if it performs relatively poorly with critics and gains limited traction in critic awards while something like Blonde, Passing or The Harder They Fall picks up its slack and takes over the reins with Netflix’s campaigning.

    Netflix’ issue is that their nominations to wins ratio is abysmal, especially above the line.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204254620

    I agree that big studio films will dominate the nominations next year, but I do wonder if given how stacked Oct-Dec is there might actually be a bit of ‘awards movie’ fatigue that leads to a couple of unexpected indie nominations.

    One place I do think the indies can break through are the acting categories. Especially Actor which feels more open than the rest. I won’t be surprised if we have an Adams in Arrival type miss there.

    Agreed. I think that unexpected “indie” nominaitons could happen if particular unusual role/performances stand out so much they cannot be ignored no matter how small or weird their movie is. Or an unusual performance from a big movie that isn’t going to be a contender (think Jack Sparrow).

    The Power of the Dog probably won’t get lost in the shuffle, though. 

    I didn’t mean that one anyway. It’s baity af and I have Cumberbatch as the frontrunner sight unseen based on the role alone. Well, too early frontrunner ha ha.

     

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    JV
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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204254642

    Wow so Warner Bros. is trying to repeat the success they had with Joker getting to Venice?

    I doubt Dune has a chance of winning the Golden Lion though, but they’ve been awarding a lot of American films recently so whoever wins there should be Best Picture nominee

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