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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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    JV
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    #1204255619

    I meant big as in the scope of award player potential.

    It’s not a historical drama. It will be more of a psychological drama based on what Carter Burwell has said

     

    The Tragedy of Macbeth” is being shot entirely on sound stages to give the film a look untethered from reality. “It doesn’t look like Scotland,” Burwell said. “It’s more like a psychological reality. That said, it doesn’t seem stage-like either. Joel has compared it to German Expressionist film. You’re in a psychological world, and it’s pretty clear right from the beginning the way he’s shot it.”

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    kaziz
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    #1204255641

    God, everything about Tragedy of Macbeth sounds alarm bells going gimmick, gimmick, gimmick! As in: could be technically GREAT but does it matter? The thing that will make the film succeed—how much audiences emotionally connect with it—seems remote to me.

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    Lucas
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    #1204255649

    God, everything about Tragedy of Macbeth sounds alarm bells going gimmick, gimmick, gimmick! As in: could be technically GREAT but does it matter? The thing that will make the film succeed—how much audiences emotionally connect with it—seems remote to me.

    Well… how many people emotionally connected with Mank lol

    Yeah it does sound like a very niche film, but can we can bet against three of the biggest Academy darlings that live right now: a Coen brother, Frances and Denzel

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    paul_kolas
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    #1204255652

    Add my disappointment to The Northman being pushed to next April, but that may work to its advantage, with so many pushed back films being released between September and December. So far the 2022 release schedule isn’t that loaded yet…

    https://www.firstshowing.net/schedule2022/

    That said, there is Baz Lurhmann’s Elvis movie shceduled for June 3, 2022, and I would imagine that Scorsese’s “Killer’s of the Flower Moon” will NOT be ready by the end of this year, and more likely positioned for the 2023 Oscars. And is Damian Chazelle’s “Babylon” going into production anytime soon, for a scheduled December 23, 2022 release? Some of the big films going to production this year, for release in 2022, are Ari Aster’s “Disappointment Blvd,” with Joaquin Phoenix, the Spielberg movie about his childhood in Arizona, which isn’t really about him per se, Noah Baumbach’s “White Noise,” with Adam Driver and Greta Gerwig, Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light,” with Olivia Colman, Ridley Scott’s “Kitbag,” with the very busy Joaquin Phoenix and Jodie Comer, and then there is “Avatar 2” on December 16, 2022. I think that Matt Reeves’ “The Batman” will be a pretty big deal, too, so “The Northman” will have considerable competition, but not to the over whelming extent it would have this year.

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    Chloe Sevigny stan <3
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    #1204255656

    Amy Adams needs to fire her agent asap because that Netflix movie that come out today was not it…..

    Emmy FYC!!: Chloe Sevigny (We Are Who We Are), MJ Rodriguez (Pose), Billy Porter (Pose), Emma Corrin (The Crown), Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), Maya Erskine (Pen15), Anna Konkle (Pen15), Naomi Ackie (Master of None), Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad), Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown), Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You)

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    crabbie
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    #1204255665

    With The Northman being a non factor this year I think Focus could spend more resources on Judi Dench for Belfast campaign. Dench is overdue for a second Oscar with an astounding 7 BAFTA awards record. The only problem is Belfast just needs to not be critically panned like Hillbilly Elegy but this is Kenneth Branagh we are talking about.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204255681

    Did not see that coming for The Northman.

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204255716

    Bold move by Focus, but maybe its not ready yet.

     

    Bold since their main campaign is for a Genre movie

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204255777

    With The Northman being a non factor this year I think Focus could spend more resources on Judi Dench for Belfast campaign. Dench is overdue for a second Oscar with an astounding 7 BAFTA awards record. The only problem is Belfast just needs to not be critically panned like Hillbilly Elegy but this is Kenneth Branagh we are talking about.

    Yeah outside of Dench I don’t really see it having a chance at anything because Branagh is not the type of filmmaker that I think can make this type of film work. So that whittles Focus’ slate down to The Card Counter and Last Night in Soho. The Card Counter seems like it’ll be treated like a Drive or Uncut Gems but if it’s accessible enough and gets great notices, it will undoubtedly be their main push. Last Night in Soho also needs great reviews (like 85+ Metascore) and/or big box office to really catapult into contention status.

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    kaziz
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    #1204255787

    Well… how many people emotionally connected with Mank lol

    Yeah it does sound like a very niche film, but can we can bet against three of the biggest Academy darlings that live right now: a Coen brother, Frances and Denzel

    True. But even then Mank seems like the literal best case scenario (a pretty good scenario!) But there was a reallllll solid block of support for Mank. Many critics saw it as the best of the year. I didn’t like Mank so what do I know, but It still needs that huge block of critics and voters etc. I just keep wondering “who is yet another Shakespeare adaptation even for?!” On paper, Mank does seem a lot more intriguing.

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    fefface
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    #1204255906

    True. But even then Mank seems like the literal best case scenario (a pretty good scenario!) But there was a reallllll solid block of support for Mank. Many critics saw it as the best of the year. I didn’t like Mank so what do I know, but It still needs that huge block of critics and voters etc. I just keep wondering “who is yet another Shakespeare adaptation even for?!” On paper, Mank does seem a lot more intriguing.

    Also a lot of the things people are saying are ‘unique’ about this version have been done before – the German Expressionist style (Orson Welles) the reported focus on their childlessness and loss of legacy (Fassbender/Cotillard version, plus it’s explicit in the play) though admittedly McDormand and Washington are older than actors usually are in Macbeth so that may add some subtext about ageing that could be interesting. And we know the performances will be great. But yeah it’s not my most anticipated.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204255911

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheFilmUpdates/status/1393326047618207744 The Northman will hit the theaters in April 8 of 2022. So Focus isn’t expecting it to be an Oscar player. That leaves Last Night in Soho as the only Focus Features movie, since Belfast is going to be a shitshow.

    Perfect news for THE LAST DUEL

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    LA26
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    #1204255932

    Add my disappointment to The Northman being pushed to next April, but that may work to its advantage, with so many pushed back films being released between September and December. So far the 2022 release schedule isn’t that loaded yet… https://www.firstshowing.net/schedule2022/ That said, there is Baz Lurhmann’s Elvis movie shceduled for June 3, 2022, and I would imagine that Scorsese’s “Killer’s of the Flower Moon” will NOT be ready by the end of this year, and more likely positioned for the 2023 Oscars. And is Damian Chazelle’s “Babylon” going into production anytime soon, for a scheduled December 23, 2022 release?  

    Babylon starts shooting in June.

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    fefface
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    #1204255951

    Yeah I feel like Belfast will be a small film that maybe picks up the odd acting nomination for Dench or maybe a BAFTA screenplay nomination at a push. But it has such a good release date that I do wonder if Focus think they’re sitting on something great. It also makes me wonder if the fact they didn’t go for Soho in the November date means they think/know it won’t be an Oscar player and want to maximise its box office potential.

    That said they originally had PYW as an April release, so maybe they just don’t really know what they’re doing.

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204255998

    Yeah I feel like Belfast will be a small film that maybe picks up the odd acting nomination for Dench or maybe a BAFTA screenplay nomination at a push. But it has such a good release date that I do wonder if Focus think they’re sitting on something great. It also makes me wonder if the fact they didn’t go for Soho in the November date means they think/know it won’t be an Oscar player and want to maximise its box office potential. That said they originally had PYW as an April release, so maybe they just don’t really know what they’re doing.

    I think the way they played their card is…

     

    Knowing that Soho needs a big push as Crowdpleaser and Box Office due to genre thing, they opted to release it on more Box Office-friendly release date and build momentum from there. Belfast is a safer bet since it is a more conventional Oscar bait compared to Soho

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