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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    SN
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    #1204297351

    I don’t even think In the Heights will crack SAG.

    SAG is where it has the better chances due to the (almost) entirely non-white cast.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204297365

    In the Heights is going to be in the conversation and you can’t do anything to stop it. Whether it’s going to cross the finish line is a different story.

    What it has going for it:

    Crowdpleaser. Bet against those in your own peril. This is the opposite of any indies we got last season which had lowest rated Oscars ever. Popular films like this are going to be nominated.

    It’s going to have amazing guild run. Why wouldn’t this get PGA and SAG, Crazy Rich Asians got those.

    10 Best Picture nominees helps films like this.

    Its hurdles:

    Early release. It can’t just be a nice summer movie. It needs to be THE movie of the summer to maintain the momentum.

    There’s still a chance it doesn’t get any nominations. No nomination for it is locked. Picture, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Sound and Song are on the table but not guaranteed and tough competition might kick it out. Also it has no shot to win anything. Many Picture nominees do go winless, but it doesn’t help.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204297438

    It’s going to have amazing guild run. Why wouldn’t this get PGA and SAG, Crazy Rich Asians got those.

    10 Best Picture nominees helps films like this.

    If 2018 was a straight ten with the 09-10 voting method, CRA would’ve undoubtedly had been a BP nominee.

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    Lil Tony
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    Sep 17th, 2018
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    #1204297446

    guys let not spoil movies that just came out

    We’ll always talk about latest movies. It happens every year with every movie. Even some yet  to be released films are been trashed already like every other year. We can’t help it. So give it up

    A Lady Gaga DEVOTEE

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204297450

    Its intereating to see how far In The Heights would go yet i think its chance heavily rely on how other musical ensemble (Dear Evan Hansen, West Side Story)  will perform

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    mateil
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    #1204297452

    All I’m sure of is as well as I think it will do, Dune will not get any acting nominations.

    Again, underestimate Ferguson at your own peril.

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204297529

    In the Heights is going to be in the conversation and you can’t do anything to stop it. Whether it’s going to cross the finish line is a different story. What it has going for it: Crowdpleaser. Bet against those in your own peril. This is the opposite of any indies we got last season which had lowest rated Oscars ever. Popular films like this are going to be nominated. It’s going to have amazing guild run. Why wouldn’t this get PGA and SAG, Crazy Rich Asians got those. 10 Best Picture nominees helps films like this. Its hurdles: Early release. It can’t just be a nice summer movie. It needs to be THE movie of the summer to maintain the momentum. There’s still a chance it doesn’t get any nominations. No nomination for it is locked. Picture, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Sound and Song are on the table but not guaranteed and tough competition might kick it out. Also it has no shot to win anything. Many Picture nominees do go winless, but it doesn’t help.

    I do think it’s heavily favored for a Sound nom at this point. Even if Dune, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, and No Time to Die all make it, that’s just 4. For a 5th nominee to knock it out, we’d need something like Last Night in Soho, Annette, or Eternals being a stronger Oscar contender than In the Heights, and that seems really unlikely to me. And as far as the win goes, I think it probably can win Editing/Sound if it does really well and Dune flops (I’m not predicting it, just think that it’s possible if things line up right for it).

    I think as far as nominations go that people are underrating its Best Actor chances though. Ramos has been getting raves for this, and while young male romantic leads making it isn’t common, usually they aren’t the critical standouts either. I currently have him in 6th, but I think a nomination is very possible.

    If 2018 was a straight ten with the 09-10 voting method, CRA would’ve undoubtedly had been a BP nominee.

    Not necessarily, Beale Street and Cold War might have been 9th and 10th.

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    LA26
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    #1204297540

    Does Ridley Scott not like premiering his films at a lot of festivals? I’ve noticed a lot of Driver fans on social media expressing disappointment over HoG missing Venice. They seem to think the film might premiere at a dozen festivals like Marriage Story did in 2019. I remember The Martian premiering at TIFF, but I don’t know if it screened at other festivals as well.

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    Minuscule
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    #1204297599

    Does Ridley Scott not like premiering his films at a lot of festivals? I’ve noticed a lot of Driver fans on social media expressing disappointment over HoG missing Venice. They seem to think the film might premiere at a dozen festivals like Marriage Story did in 2019. I remember The Martian premiering at TIFF, but I don’t know if it screened at other festivals as well.

    Well, many of them became fans of him trough Star Wars and want him to do certain movies like rom-coms or a new SW movie. They love to moan about his movie choices, have bad things to say about all his upcoming movies and the characters he plays or about the directors, including HOG. Many don’t know the first thing about Ridley Scott or his movies, so don’t pay too much attention to them.

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    JV
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    #1204297721

    If 2018 was a straight ten with the 09-10 voting method, CRA would’ve undoubtedly had been a BP nominee.

    I disagree. It couldn’t even get a Costume Design/Production Design nominations despite doing great at the guilds, and despite having the combo AFI + SAG + NBR + PGA.

    Cold War was 9th and Beale Street was probably 10th.

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    Jacob Boe
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    #1204297751

    We’ll always talk about latest movies. It happens every year with every movie. Even some yet to be released films are been trashed already like every other year. We can’t help it. So give it up

    Yes, you can help it. Now, I’m not upset about your In the Heights spoiler because I’ve watched the Broadway show and listened to the soundtrack, so it wasn’t a spoiler for me. But for someone who isn’t already familiar with the source material, that would be a major spoiler. All you had to do was say “oh was that the grandma” and be done with it. You’re in the wrong, not the other person.

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    puck05
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    #1204297821

    On 20th Century’s Wikipedia page for 2021 releases, Canterbury Glass has the date November 12.

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    JV
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    #1204297842

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/1403733685493501954?s=19

    In the Heights box office numbers are disappointing. It will open with around 14M when traders were predicting +20M and even around 30M.

     

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204297879

    Not necessarily, Beale Street and Cold War might have been 9th and 10th.

     

    No!! If Beale Street Could Talk, and nr. 10 maybe for Quiet Place, Mary Poppins Returns or Into the Spider-Verse

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204297883

    No!! If Beale Street Could Talk, and nr. 10 maybe for Quiet Place, Mary Poppins Returns or Into the Spider-Verse

    There was no way something like Spider-Verse was making the top 10. I’d love that, but it didn’t get nominated for anything other than animated feature. It could have easily gotten song and score nominations but that didn’t happen.  And Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place both heavily underperformed in nominations, with the latter not even making it into both sound categories and the former just getting a couple period techs and a couple music nominations (I doubt it was much closer to a Best Picture nom than movies like Into the Woods were in their years).

    Anyways, In the Heights’ awards chances always depended on it making money, so this basically kills them.

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