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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204298248

    The MCU is the best movie franchise of all-time!!

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    loollapalooza1
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    May 23rd, 2021
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    #1204298256

    Does ITH box office matter because of the type of film it is and how accessible it is to everyone? It’s not very artsy or technically so I’m guessing that’s why BO matter. Assuming Last Night In Soho was released now and didn’t do well in the box office, I don’t think people will take it off prediction lists.

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    Nectar
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    Oct 10th, 2019
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    #1204298258

    So In the Heights isn’t even making Song at this point?

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    roger88
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    #1204298260

    Never had In The Heights in my predictions. Never will. Betting in Annette

    MTE. For all the talk of “Annette” being weird, having Léos Carax and being more artistic ouvre helps to get other kind of voters. ITH really needs the popular hit factor to overcome the early release and the competition with other big Hollywood productions.

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204298275

    I’m here for Snobs talks shit about what Mainstream like and “Oh look i thrash MCU and all mainstream stuff, i must be cool”.

    Jeez, Soho and French Dispatch are in lists of Most Anticipated movies by various publications.

    Speaking of a Box Office and Promotion thing, i think we should consider that over-advertising/overmarketing is also a Red Flag signaling that the movie will be shit that Studios have to advert it as much as they can to encourage audience to watch it.  In this case they seemed want to avoid it but it blew in their own face.

    Long short story, extensive/promition is necessary to some extent

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    Stank83
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    #1204298298

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/1403733685493501954?s=19 In the Heights box office numbers are disappointing. It will open with around 14M when traders were predicting +20M and even around 30M.

    The whole “HBO Max release at same day” strategy definitely hurt them.

    But I think the movie will have strong enough legs to become a good commercial success.

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    Sir Pierce
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    Feb 7th, 2019
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    #1204298305

    Disappointing box office numbers for In the Heights. Removed it from my predictions. I’m predicting one musical to get in Best Picture so let’s see how the rest of the musicals play out.

    I’m betting that it’ll either be West Side Story…. with my runner-up being Tick, Tick… Boom!

    I think In The Heights stand a very loose chance of getting in somewhere if this turns out to be a weak year, which, as always, is possible.

    But the fact that West Side Story and Tick, Tick… Boom! already have trailer strikes me as, to a certain extent, the studios faith in the films. I, also, reckon West Side Story is gonna be 20th Century’s main push this year…

    On the other hand, I think Don’t Look Up is going to be Netflix’s Irishman/Mank of the year, whilst I think that Netflix wants two of Tick, Tick… Boom!, Blonde, The Power Of The Dog, Passing and Bruised to be their 2nd and 3rd pushes a la Marriage Story/Chicago 7 and Ma Rainey/Two Popes. (Don’t be surprised if it, at least, one doesn’t turn out to be another Laundromat, Midnight Sky or Hillbilly Elergy, though…)

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    wolfali
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    #1204298390

    I think In The Heights stand a very loose chance of getting in somewhere if this turns out to be a weak year, which, as always, is possible.

    I agree with what you say here about competition.

    It’s always easy to conflate quantity with being more competitive but some (if not a lot) of these films are going to suffer from the delays they made last year in theatrical releases due to the pandemic. Buzz is something that is only sustainable for a certain amount of time so I won’t be surprised if this affects something like Respect (which has been hyped for almost 2 years at this point) as well. Case in point look at the Emmys last year. So many anticipated shows like Stranger Things and Big Little Lies skipped the previous season due to not wanting to compete with Game of <i>Thrones </i>(which in itself was a daft move considering how the final season of GoT was panned) but they all suffered due to losing steam too quickly and not being able to maintain their momentum whilst shows with little pre-hype rose from behind and became top contenders. Although I’m not predicting it, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if a similar thing happens with this upcoming Oscars race.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204298452

    For a young filmmaker who’s never had trouble expressing a voice of his own, it’s both admirable and frustrating to watch him silently listen for new harmonies in a project born from the opportunity to collaborate with Kirby and reverse-engineered from there. For her part, Kirby is so magnetic and half-opened as a woman who’s forgotten everything besides her own force of will that no one will ever second-guess why Leon agreed to work with her before he even had an idea of what they would make together.

    Not Vanessa Kirby having another fantastic performance in a meh movie. There’s some Italian Studies reviews out.

    https://www.indiewire.com/2021/06/italian-studies-review-vanessa-kirby-tribeca-1234644012/

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204298457

    When we will have prediction thread for each category???

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    Dec 12th, 2020
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    #1204298469

    It’s very interesting how crazy Lady Gaga and Adam Driver stans are. Especially on Twitter. Ridley Scott worked with huge stars before(Leo, Matt Damon, Harrison Ford, Denzel) but I suppose the stans of those stars are old and mature. The stans of Lady Gaga and Adam Driver are totally insane and I suppose very young

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204298485

    Does ITH box office matter because of the type of film it is and how accessible it is to everyone? It’s not very artsy or technically so I’m guessing that’s why BO matter. Assuming Last Night In Soho was released now and didn’t do well in the box office, I don’t think people will take it off prediction lists.

    Last Night in Soho needs Box Office success to be Contender because some of the last Horror/Thriller that made it to above the line categories (Black Swan, Get Out) has outrageous Box Office success, Critical acclaim and for Black Swan case, friendly release date. I wont be that confident in Predicting Soho if it underperforms at the BO

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204298496

    Last Night in Soho needs Box Office success to be Contender because some of the last Horror/Thriller that made it to above the line categories (Black Swan, Get Out) has outrageous Box Office success, Critical acclaim and for Black Swan case, friendly release date. I wont be that confident in Predicting Soho if it underperforms at the BO

    Get Out had cultural impact which is even harder. I don’t think LNIS could have cultural impact or huge box office

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    Jajajajjaja
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204298504

    Get Out had cultural impact which is even harder. I don’t think LNIS could have cultural impact or huge box office

    I agree. If it have Black Swan level of commercial success then it may stand a chance and with The French Dispatch released on the same day, its even more difficult for it to earn Black Swan level of success.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204298510

    Not Vanessa Kirby having another fantastic performance in a meh movie. There’s some Italian Studies reviews out. https://www.indiewire.com/2021/06/italian-studies-review-vanessa-kirby-tribeca-1234644012/

    She truly is a remarkable talent.

    When she comes for her second consecutive nomination lol…

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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