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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 13)

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204311032

    I don’t know…. I mean, he is working with two of the best working directors in the modern-age. He’s the full-lead in Nightmare Alley – the whole film revolves around him and he’s playing a baity part. It’s in a similar line to his A Star Is Born role in that it’s an alcoholic, but I get the impression it won’t be a “rock n roll” type performance and more the kind of sleazy and smooth kind of character – in between his roles in American Hustle and The Hangover, I think. And in Soggy Bottom, he appears to be playing a role in the line of the one Burt Reynolds did in Boogie Nights (which almost won an Oscar), with him playing a film director/producer, albeit with a bit more youth and the typical Bradley Cooper intensity (based on the set pictures, where his shirt is stained with blood). Also, I wouldn’t be surprised, in general, if it was a bit less diverse this year, based on the directors and some of the films coming out. But I think it will be more diverse than the predictions.

    The thing is that Bradley Cooper has been around for most of the public since 2009, and he has a total of 8 nominations…adding two more, that’s 10 nominations in a bit more than 10 years for an actor who is although considered talented enough, is not considered the next Al Pacino, Denzel Washington, Robert Redford or some acting phenomenon. That’s white privilege.

    Don’t get me wrong, I have no issue with Cooper in particular, but I think we could do more diverse than giving Cooper another two nominations in less than 15 years. And don’t say ‘What if he actually deserves it”, because there are numerous hard-workers “who deserve it”, some are even more talented than Cooper, and they don’t get nominated all the time.

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    Rmcd8
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    Jan 3rd, 2020
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    #1204311117

    My June predictions for the main categories are below. A couple of notes:

    – I’m surprised by how few foreign directors/films people are picking – the Academy has reserved a permanent Director nom slot for an international film for the past 3-4 years now – and after Parasite I think this will only continue. If the live up to their hype then either Annette or A Hero will be here or in BP (or both). Ditto a female director – if Power of the Dog is good enough to get a BP nom, I can’t see her missing a Director nom as well.

    –  Adam Driver is more likely to be the independent/Cannes actor win who goes onto secure a nomination from Annette (e.g. like Antonio in Pain and Glory). I think this is a stronger bet for him than Gucci. Also Bale and DiCaprio have never missed a nom so I don’t know why they would this time. Along with Denzel (the frontrunner) and Bradley Cooper (doing the Scarlett double noms but not winning), this category feels like it’s already locked down.

    – I have put Frances and Margot in supporting because I think they’ll run some category fraud here and Bale and Washington will compete for sole lead and not try to cancel out their chances. But if that changed I’d have Frances in, and Gaga and Margot missing the lead actress nom.

    Best Picture

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Soggy Bottom

    A Hero

    Annette

    Don’t Look Up

    The Power of the Dog

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Canterbury Glass

    Last Night in Soho

    Best Director
    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
    Asghar Farhadi – A Hero
    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

    Best Actor
    Adam Driver – Annette
    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
    Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass

    Best Actress
    Jennifer Hudson – Respect
    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Martha Plimpton – Mass

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Best Supporting Actor
    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
    Jared Leto – House of Gucci
    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley
    Willem Dafoe-The Card Counter
    Andrew Garfield-The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Best Supporting Actress
    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass

    Best Original Screenplay
    Don’t Look Up
    The French Dispatch
    Mass
    Soggy Bottom

    Last Night in Soho

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Next Goal Wins
    Nightmare Alley
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog
    The Tragedy of Macbeth

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    lanadelol
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    #1204311142

    I’m honestly not even sure that JHud gets nominated, and that’s no disrespect to her or Aretha Franklin. As Piper said, MGM doesn’t seem to have much confidence in the film if they’re dropping it in August. JHud’s gonna have to get hyped up like Renee in Judy if she’s gonna be nominated and/or win.

    The reason RESPECT has a summer release isn’t because MGM doesn’t have confidence in the film. Aretha was heavily involved in the making of the movie until her death, and one of the things she wanted was a summer release. MGM has plenty of faith in the movie considering how much they were campaigning her (Entertainment Weekly cover, etc.) last season before they pushed the release back.

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    AjayLopez25
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    Oct 24th, 2019
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    #1204311168

    despite In The Heights box-office problems, hoping that film had a chances for Oscars 2022 Best Picture nominations and wins.

    For me it is not a box-office flops atleast they are a bit box-office numbers than a nothing.

    My expecting nominations & wins from In The Heights are:

    Best Picture, Best Director (Jon M. Chu), Best Actor (Anthony Ramos), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress (Olga Merediz)(Melissa Barrera), Best Production Design, Best Film Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, Best Original Score, Best Original Song

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    fefface
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    Jan 14th, 2020
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    #1204311179

    despite In The Heights box-office problems, hoping that film had a chances for Oscars 2022 Best Picture nominations and wins. For me it is not a box-office flops atleast they are a bit box-office numbers than a nothing. My expecting nominations & wins from In The Heights are: Best Picture, Best Director (Jon M. Chu), Best Actor (Anthony Ramos), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress (Olga Merediz)(Melissa Barrera), Best Production Design, Best Film Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, Best Original Score, Best Original Song

    Even if it hadn’t flopped (and it did flop) it was never, ever getting 11 nominations.

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    Calvin
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    Dec 27th, 2017
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    #1204311212

    Ive been getting a feeling that diversity is destroying Hollywood.

    Imagine thinking this way when it’s still a white dominated industry and POC-led features still face an inordinate amount of pressure and expectations to succeed. The day when it doesn’t have to just fall on films like Minari and Moonlight don’t have to carry the sole burdens of minority representation of awards season is still very far away.

    Also, what is ‘diversity just for the sake of it is annoying’ even mean? Human beings are a diverse group. Why wouldn’t there be diverse stories? Honestly don’t have a clue what some people mean sometimes when they throw around weird statements like that.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    Sir Pierce
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    Feb 7th, 2019
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    #1204311246

    The thing is that Bradley Cooper has been around for most of the public since 2009, and he has a total of 8 nominations…adding two more, that’s 10 nominations in a bit more than 10 years for an actor who is although considered talented enough, is not considered the next Al Pacino, Denzel Washington, Robert Redford or some acting phenomenon. That’s white privilege. Don’t get me wrong, I have no issue with Cooper in particular, but I think we could do more diverse than giving Cooper another two nominations in less than 15 years. And don’t say ‘What if he actually deserves it”, because there are numerous hard-workers “who deserve it”, some are even more talented than Cooper, and they don’t get nominated all the time.

    I don’t know… I do think the Redford comparison might actually be reasonable in regards to Bradley Cooper. I get a lot of people don’t like him on here, but he is pretty well-regarded by the GP. And, to be fair to him, most of them nominations did not pertain to his acting… He’s only had four acting nominations – I don’t think 6 acting nominations is out of the question for him.

    And I will use the “deserve” argument. He, more than likely, will probably deserve a nomination for these films, if they’re any good. Nightmare Alley is probably going to depend on him for it to be a good film – so, if it is a BP contender, he’s almost certainly getting a nomination. Also, every single film by PT Anderson has received at least one Oscar nom. And, particularly, his first two films (which were ensembles – like this new one appears to be) recieved Supporting Actor nominations for the most well-known star in their cast. I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen again here.

    Sure, I get it if you don’t like Bradley Cooper as an actor that much, but I think we’re being a bit naive if we’re thinking simultaneously that  Nightmare Alley is a Best Picture contender and that Bradley Cooper has no chance of getting two Oscars. Frankly, if it is a contender, I wouldn’t be surprised if his Best Actor bid follows a similar path to DiCaprio in OUTIH and Oldman in Mank, but he ends up winning for Soggy Bottom instead.

    On the whole, though, I feel like you are underrating Cooper as an actor. I mean, there is a reason he is one of the (roughly) five male actors able to be a box office draw – others being DiCaprio, Denzel, Will Smith and Dwayne Johnson.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    Calvin
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    #1204311250

    Anyway, I’ll be adding my own predictions now which will involve ‘diversity just for the sake of it’ 😉

    Best Picture

    Blue Bayou
    Dune
    A Hero
    The Humans
    A Journal for Jordan
    Nightmare Alley
    The Power of the Dog
    Soggy Bottom
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    West Side Story

    Best Director

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
    Asghar Farhadi – A Hero
    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Best Actor 

    Will Smith – King Richard
    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
    Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan

    Best Actress 

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
    Jennifer Hudson – Respect
    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
    Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    Best Supporting Actor 

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans
    Jesse Plemons – Power of the Dog
    Justin H. Min – After Yang
    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Supporting Actress

    Marlee Matlin – Coda
    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Ann Dowd – Mass
    Ruth Negga – Passing
    Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley

    Best Original Screenplay 

    Blue Bayou
    A Hero
    The French Dispatch
    Soggy Bottom
    Mass

    Best Adapted Screenplay 

    Nightmare Alley
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    A Journal for Jordan
    The Power of the Dog
    The Humans

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    Jajajajjaja
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204311262

    Diversity is good when its done right. While i acknowledge that POC Actresses are struggling to get a leading gig if its not a movie bout their own races, the Industry often get it wrong and only do that to appeal that particular group. E.g. racebending Ariel in Little Mermaid and multiple comic book characters (particularly DC) that rubs Comic Book fans the wrong way. Marvel actually get it done by creating original characters like Black Panther and Zendaya’s MJ (yeah its not that redhead Mary Jane Watson) but most of the time the Industry fucked up big time for the sake of Diversity without having clue how to do with that

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    Calvin
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    #1204311280

    The industry doesn’t need to do anything except give POC artists more spotlight. Over the past few years we’ve seen what happens when POC directors and writers get more opportunities to tell their own stories. Nitpicking over instances where the industry gets it ‘wrong’ (which again is such a subjective barometer) gives those against diversity a straw man argument against diversity in general.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204311302

    They need more spotlight, indeed. But not by racebending characters from source material.

    The way they get it wrong isnt only refers to racebending etc but also the way they treat their POC characters. Star Wars get it wrong on John Boyega, Oscar Isaacs and Kelly Marie Tran. And also if they only racebend or using diversity merely as a backdrop without adding any depth to their story related to it

     

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    Calvin
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    #1204311342

    It can’t just be me that’s finding it bizarre that this is an *checks topics* Oscar predictions thread and yet all your complaints about diversity seem to be entirely separate from all this? Not to gatekeep certain genres from being discussed here but it just seems like you just have an axe to grind with ‘race bending’. Like all your examples are so…entirely different to the general line of discussion here.

    Although on that note why shouldn’t POC characters be allowed to exist without ‘depth in their story related to it’? Do white characters have to justify their existence for being white? Can’t POC characters be just allowed to be? Revolutionary idea, I know.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    Stank83
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    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1204311433

    I don’t know…. I mean, he is working with two of the best working directors in the modern-age. He’s the full-lead in Nightmare Alley – the whole film revolves around him and he’s playing a baity part. It’s in a similar line to his A Star Is Born role in that it’s an alcoholic, but I get the impression it won’t be a “rock n roll” type performance and more the kind of sleazy and smooth kind of character – in between his roles in American Hustle and The Hangover, I think. And in Soggy Bottom, he appears to be playing a role in the line of the one Burt Reynolds did in Boogie Nights (which almost won an Oscar), with him playing a film director/producer, albeit with a bit more youth and the typical Bradley Cooper intensity (based on the set pictures, where his shirt is stained with blood). Also, I wouldn’t be surprised, in general, if it was a bit less diverse this year, based on the directors and some of the films coming out. But I think it will be more diverse than the predictions.

    Nah, the competition is very packed in Actor this year and Del Toro is a huge hit and miss, very inconsistent filmmaker who’s getting hype for this movie only because of the Shape of Water’s awards season success, which didn’t age greatly as a movie compared to the other films of that same year.

    Plus, in Soggy Bottom apparently he only shot for two weeks, very small part. 
    Wouldn’t be surprised if Benny Safdie gets a nomination over him, he seems to have a better and baitier part as the closeted politician.

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    Arman Saxena
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    Jul 24th, 2017
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    #1204311484

    Nah, the competition is very packed in Actor this year and Del Toro is a huge hit and miss, very inconsistent filmmaker who’s getting hype for this movie only because of the Shape of Water’s awards season success, which didn’t age greatly as a movie compared to the other films of that same year. Plus, in Soggy Bottom apparently he only shot for two weeks, very small part. Wouldn’t be surprised if Benny Safdie gets a nomination over him, he seems to have a better and baitier part as the closeted politician.

    Even if he was shooting for only two weeks, I think he still has enough screen time to make an impression (especially considering the intensity of the stills we’ve seen). People have been nominated (and have even won) for less screen time than he probably will have. That said, at this point, I think he will be nominated only and that someone else will prevail. If the film becomes a top 3 or 4 BP contender, Safdie will be probably be in the running as well.

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    diego
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    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1204311519

    Nah, the competition is very packed in Actor this year and Del Toro is a huge hit and miss, very inconsistent filmmaker who’s getting hype for this movie only because of the Shape of Water’s awards season success, which didn’t age greatly as a movie compared to the other films of that same year. Plus, in Soggy Bottom apparently he only shot for two weeks, very small part. Wouldn’t be surprised if Benny Safdie gets a nomination over him, he seems to have a better and baitier part as the closeted politician.

    It’s pretty clear you are just biased against Bradley and don’t want to see him. But whether you like it or not, he’s in two of the most buzzed-about upcoming films of the season, and saying he won’t be in the conversation is just delusional.

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