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June 22, 2021 at 7:38 am #1204312484
I’ll be honest, when I read the script for Don’t Look Up, I really did not think it was gonna be a big thing at all. I thought it was too obvious with what it was trying to do with its message, even more so than Vice. And solely based on that draft I read, I thought there’d be no way that even the Academy would wanna go anywhere near it. Based on everything I’ve been hearing, I’m 100% wrong. I’m never basing any prediction off an early draft ever again. Don’t Look Up is getting in, and if you don’t see it you are blind.
We’ll see what happens but test screening reactions aren’t the best predictor either. Sometimes the wowser reaction translates, sometimes doesn’t.June 22, 2021 at 8:30 am #1204312556
Meryl Streep is getting in for Don’t Look Up.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.June 22, 2021 at 9:24 am #1204312678
There are many good movies that don’t garner awards nominations for cast members that aren’t standouts. Being a big name doesn’t mean automatic admission. Django Unchained was a big boxoffice hit and awards player yet Leo’s Oscar meme couldn’t get him in when Waltz got frauded into Supporting. And Leo’s role was notable but Waltz dominated the movie. The Martian was a boxoffice hit and an awards player but only Damon had something to do so Jessica “When will she get nominated again?” Chastain didn’t make it. We’ll see how it goes with Lawrence but good movie alone isn’t enough. Especially since another actress (Streep) is singled out.June 22, 2021 at 9:35 am #1204312699
Nam flashbacks to when we thought News of the World was getting Best Picture over Judas and Sound of Metal
Well I never thought that.
FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!June 22, 2021 at 10:28 am #1204312842
There are many good movies that don’t garner awards nominations for cast members that aren’t standouts. Being a big name doesn’t mean automatic admission. Django Unchained was a big box office hit and awards player yet Leo’s Oscar meme couldn’t get him in when Waltz got frauded into Supporting. And Leo’s role was notable but Waltz dominated the movie. The Martian was a box office hit and an awards player but only Damon had something to do so Jessica “When will she get nominated again?” Chastain didn’t make it. We’ll see how it goes with Lawrence but a good movie alone isn’t enough. Especially since another actress (Streep) is singled out.
More tea that I’ve heard is that DiCaprio gives a notably baitty performance that the Academy could go for. So we shouldn’t be counting him out either. Apparently, Mark Rylance was also a standout, but he didn’t get in for Trial when he was the best performance in the movie, and DLU could just be Trial all over again tbh.
Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung
#StopAsianHateJune 22, 2021 at 11:04 am #1204312915This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.June 22, 2021 at 11:16 am #1204312949
Obviously need to be sceptical with early reactions like this but it has always seemed fairly cut and dry that Don’t Look Up would be a major player this season to me. Not that I’m fully confident or using these reactions as an ‘I told you so’, because I don’t think they’re that important, but I was surprised months back how many people were dismissing it as a likely flop. It’s one of the year’s starriest films and, for now, Netflix’s biggest prospect. Add McKay’s recent nomination track record to that and a topical message and it’s a Top 3 contender for a nomination right now, possibly the likeliest of all films currently on our radar.
I think I have it predicted in Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Editing and another tech or two as of now, although I haven’t revised my predictions for a while. I wouldn’t rule Streep or another supporting player out either, considering Rockwell got in on maybe the weakest supporting nomination of the decade for Vice. Pending an actual release, I don’t see why Lawrence can’t make the nominations, but it’s a packed field so I also have no confidence in predicting her yet.June 22, 2021 at 11:21 am #1204312959
The obvious difference being that Waltz and DiCaprio were in the same category, while Lawrence and Streep will be in different categories. So DiCaprio had to contend with internal competition, which Lawrence won’t have to. I think she can happen if the movie is a big player.
I agree about category but actors in the same movie are still each other’s internal comeptition. So standouts have better chance to get nominated than non-standouts from different categories because standouts get all the attention. I mena, non-standouts could coattail but that’s a more vulenrable position than having the spotlight.June 22, 2021 at 11:23 am #1204312965This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.June 22, 2021 at 11:46 am #1204313007
I don’t know… I do think the Redford comparison might actually be reasonable in regards to Bradley Cooper. I get a lot of people don’t like him on here, but he is pretty well-regarded by the GP. And, to be fair to him, most of them nominations did not pertain to his acting… He’s only had four acting nominations – I don’t think 6 acting nominations is out of the question for him. And I will use the “deserve” argument. He, more than likely, will probably deserve a nomination for these films, if they’re any good. Nightmare Alley is probably going to depend on him for it to be a good film – so, if it is a BP contender, he’s almost certainly getting a nomination. Also, every single film by PT Anderson has received at least one Oscar nom. And, particularly, his first two films (which were ensembles – like this new one appears to be) recieved Supporting Actor nominations for the most well-known star in their cast. I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen again here. Sure, I get it if you don’t like Bradley Cooper as an actor that much, but I think we’re being a bit naive if we’re thinking simultaneously that Nightmare Alley is a Best Picture contender and that Bradley Cooper has no chance of getting two Oscars. Frankly, if it is a contender, I wouldn’t be surprised if his Best Actor bid follows a similar path to DiCaprio in OUTIH and Oldman in Mank, but he ends up winning for Soggy Bottom instead. On the whole, though, I feel like you are underrating Cooper as an actor. I mean, there is a reason he is one of the (roughly) five male actors able to be a box office draw – others being DiCaprio, Denzel, Will Smith and Dwayne Johnson.
I have no issue with Bradley at all and I don’t question the prediction either that could of course happen. But I’d definitely call it white privilege to have someone like him – an average straight white actor (let’s face it, he is liked for sure, but he is not seen as some overly brilliant actor like Phoenix or DiCaprio, but even young actors like Adam Driver) receiving 10 nominations in 13 years. POC talent twice as talented as he is are struggling to even receive one nomination. I guess he got lucky. 🙂June 22, 2021 at 11:49 am #1204313015This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.June 22, 2021 at 12:01 pm #1204313036
Cooper has 4 acting nominations.
And 8 overall, not 10. Not that wild for a prolific, well-liked, multi-talented figure in the industry. Also slightly odd to say it’s white privilege then name 3 other white actors as examples of people who haven’t had as many noms. Clearly are systemic issues in the Academy and the industry limiting the capacity of non-white actors and producers being able to tell stories and receive major roles, but I don’t see how Cooper is relevant to that and needs to be brought into the discussion.
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