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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 13)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204314580

    If anything is comparable to PYW, its Soho. Both are considered too “edgy” for AMPAS, both initially had April release date and moved to four months before the Ceremony (CMIIW) albeit Soho has no social commentary unlike PYW

    True

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    George Ehret
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    #1204314587

    King Richard is an acting player at best. Seems like the typical biopic bait. I don’t think Blue Bayou will be a thing sadly due to the September release date which isn’t great for small indie films. Everyday I become more slightly convinced Last Night in Soho has a chance getting into Best Picture after completely dismissing it with my initial trailer reactions. That TIFF premiere is great since it has a great chance in getting top 2 at People’s Choice Awards which bodes well for Best Picture nomination unless you’re One Night in Miami which elicited no passion. Don’t think Soho will face this issue.

    Whatever wins TIFF People’s Choice Award will be huge. It’ll be a top 5 player at that point, and it’ll probably win at least one Oscar and it’ll be above the line. This has happened with every single winner since Silver Linings Playbook. Currently predicting The Humans to take it and I have it winning for Adapted Screenplay and Richard Jenkins right now.

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    crabbie
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    #1204314599

    Whatever wins TIFF People’s Choice Award will be huge. It’ll be a top 5 player at that point, and it’ll probably win at least one Oscar and it’ll be above the line. This has happened with every single winner since Silver Linings Playbook. Currently predicting The Humans to take it and I have it winning for Adapted Screenplay and Richard Jenkins right now.

    Can I ask why the confidence in The Humans? Don’t know much about the source material so I’m curious.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204314617

    If anything is comparable to PYW, its Soho. Both are considered too “edgy” for AMPAS, both initially had April release date and moved to four months before the Ceremony (CMIIW) albeit Soho has no social commentary unlike PYW

    Black Swan didn’t have social commentary either but got top nominations and Portman win. So when it comes to edgy/weird, social commentary isn’t a requirement. Point being, we still don’t know what motivates AMPAS to vote this or that way. I guess if they like something they go for it.

    Re:The Humans. Any reason why only Jenkins is predicted and nothing for the rest of the cast?

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    SN
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    #1204314619

    Dune will clearly be WB/Legendary priority given it’s going to Venice and Toronto. They’ll try the Gravity/ASIB/Joker route.

    Focus main contender could be either Belfast or LNIS. I’m putting my money on Belfast. LNIS is a genre film, and unlike other recent unusual contenders like Promising Young Woman, it’s not going to be an “important” film.

    If Belfast doesn’t deliver, I don’t think Focus will have any BP nominee this year. Same for Warner if Dune disappoints.

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    crabbie
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    #1204314623

    Suffice to say if Soho makes it in top 2 of TIFF People Choice Award it’s going to have a very high chance getting into Best Picture. If it doesn’t touch the top 2 then it’s pretty much done imo since this is the type of film that requires passion to get in.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204314632

    Black Swan wasn’t important but it was big. if LINS is big and wows the crowd the same way, and also has performance(s) that impressed, it could get in. Not everything is about importance. It’s an advantage to winning but nominees get away without it.

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    Stank83
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    #1204314634

    Which Netflix movies do you think will premiere at TIFF???
    My money is on Don’t Look Up, The Power of The Dog, and Blonde.

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    SN
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    #1204314639

    Somebody mentioned that The Last Duel has no trailer, poster or official images yet. That’s weird indeed given that it’s supposed to debut in October. Maybe Disney will delay it to Summer.

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    diego
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    #1204314712

    Re:The Humans. Any reason why only Jenkins is predicted and nothing for the rest of the cast?

    Jayne Houdyshell is being predicted just as much as Richard Jenkins.

    Both are being predicted because they are playing (and in Jayne’s case reprising) Tony-winning roles.

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    diego
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    #1204314720

    Which Netflix movies do you think will premiere at TIFF??? My money is on Don’t Look Up, The Power of The Dog, and Blonde.

    The Power of the Dog will probably screen but its main festival is going to be Venice.  I’d say Blonde is a possibility. I’m not sure Netflix is going to send DLU to festivals, mainly because I don’t think it needs them.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204314722

    Somebody mentioned that The Last Duel has no trailer, poster or official images yet. That’s weird indeed given that it’s supposed to debut in October. Maybe Disney will delay it to Summer.

    That was me and yup either they gave up on it and want to spend minimum on marketing cause it won’t help anyway or delay is coming. It’s completely ridiculous. A finished movie should have hit festivals.

    @diego thank you! Didn’t realize The Humans was based on a play.

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    crabbie
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    #1204314744

    @diego thank you! Didn’t realize The Humans was based on a play.

    I didn’t know it was based on a play either lol. Looking at it’s Tonys success I can see why people are so on board with predicting the film to be a major player. I think it can easily follow The Father route and it helps the playwright is also directing the film.

    I think Jenkins can easily get in and possibly even win. The same goes to Houdyshell but I think she might face a more difficult challenge getting a nomination in Lead Actress since its extremely stacked. That being said, A24 handling The Humans still makes me nervous.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    diego
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    #1204314769

    I didn’t know it was based on a play either lol. Looking at it’s Tonys success I can see why people are so on board with predicting the film to be a major player. I think it can easily follow The Father route and it helps the playwright is also directing the film.

    I think Jenkins can easily get in and possibly even win. The same goes to Houdyshell but I think she might face a more difficult challenge getting a nomination in Lead Actress since its extremely stacked. That being said, A24 handling The Humans still makes me nervous.

    While technically both are playing lead roles, at the Tony’s both roles won in the Featured Actor/Actress category which is technically the equivalent to a supporting Oscar. I expect both Richard and Jayne to be pushed in Supporting.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204314771

    I didn’t know it was based on a play either lol. Looking at it’s Tonys success I can see why people are so on board with predicting the film to be a major player. I think it can easily follow The Father route and it helps the playwright is also directing the film.

    The Humans is also like The Father in the sense that there’s some crafts that stand out more than other stage adaptations. In the case of The Humans, it has Production Design and Sound.

    I’d also recommend looking up clips of The Humans on YouTube and picturing Richard Jenkins doing Reed Birney’s part. Once you do that, you will realize that Jenkins could really pull it off and be competitive for the win

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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