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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 13)

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204314791

    Black Swan wasn’t important but it was big. if LINS is big and wows the crowd the same way, and also has performance(s) that impressed, it could get in. Not everything is about importance. It’s an advantage to winning but nominees get away without it.

    Black Swan is a very character driven story. Nina wanted that ballet role, push herself beyond limits that drive her insane and experienced all those terrifying stuff. Besides, the Genre boundaries in Black Swan is blurry as hell. You can’t really tell whether its full psycho horror or thriller, its in between

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204314797

    I didn’t know it was based on a play either lol. Looking at it’s Tonys success I can see why people are so on board with predicting the film to be a major player. I think it can easily follow The Father route and it helps the playwright is also directing the film. I think Jenkins can easily get in and possibly even win. The same goes to Houdyshell but I think she might face a more difficult challenge getting a nomination in Lead Actress since its extremely stacked. That being said, A24 handling The Humans still makes me nervous.

    Agreed. very hard to break into Actress but that’s true of anyone. if performance is undeniable and the movie gets Picture nom and maybe more above the line (Jenkins going Supporting indeed looks like the best bet), she could get in. or…

     

    While technically both are playing lead roles, at the Tony’s both roles won in the Featured Actor/Actress category which is technically the equivalent to a supporting Oscar. I expect both Richard and Jayne to be pushed in Supporting.

    which is more likely if she isn’t a clear lead. Speaking of, Yeun role doesn’t have Actor potential?

    @Jajajajjaja well said. LINS may be very character driven too with blurred genre lines. However, if it strikes people as Black Swan-in-fashion-business rather than a unique thing (there was no Black Swan-in-ballet if you know what I mean before Black Swan) than it might not go all the way. This is a reason why I don’t buy Don’t Worry Darling as a contender. When people say it’s Get Out with feminist commentary my reaction is that’s why it won’t get anywhere. Get Out was Get Out, it wasn’t movie X with commentary on race. If DWD is Get Out with feminist commentary instead of DWD (a unique thing, not Movie X with commentary on different topic), no cigar. Also, Booksmart wasn’t very good. I get desire to support female directors by overrating a movie in reviews but c’mon.

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    crabbie
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    #1204314826

    If both Houdyshell and Jenkins is pushed in supporting for The Humans then who is the lead of the film?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Calvin
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    #1204314837

    Yeun’s role in The Humans isn’t really an awards friendly kind of role. I’m sure he’ll be great, and he will 100% get a nomination again at some point, but not this year. It’ll be very much the Jenkins show I think.

    Still think Focus could easily field contenders in BelfastBlue Bayou and Last Night in Soho in a wide range of categories. Belfast for the supporting categories, Blue Bayou for the lead categories, both in director and screenplay, Last Night in Soho as a dark horse for the above-the-line categories and doing well with the technicals. All this is very hypothetical of course but I feel like they have quite a lot of confidence in their films this year.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    Calvin
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    #1204314839

    If both Houdyshell and Jenkins is pushed in supporting for The Humans then who is the lead of the film?

    No one, it’ll be campaigned as a pure ensemble like Chicago 7.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    crabbie
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    #1204314846

    I’d also recommend looking up clips of The Humans on YouTube and picturing Richard Jenkins doing Reed Birney’s part. Once you do that, you will realize that Jenkins could really pull it off and be competitive for the win

    Just watched it. I am now predicting him as the frontrunner and I think he can very much happen. The Supporting Actor Category seems quite barren.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    SN
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    #1204314849

    Black Swan was a huge box office success and its leading performance was the frontrunner for Best Actress during the entire season. Let’s see if LNIS will have those things or something similar.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204314858

    Am i the only one who sensing Jojo Rabbit deja vu with Last Night in Soho?

    It stars Thomasin McKenzie in “leading” role (she is supporting in Jojo, but kinda the capital female character throughout the entire film), Directed by well known Comedy Directors, Premiered at TIFF and won People Choice’s Award there, Will have a somehow divisive reaction (leaning towards positive) from critics but universally liked by audience, box office success that made it a crowdpleaser that somehow managed to sneak into above the line categories.

    Its only prediction, i could be wrong.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204314861

    Yeun’s role in The Humans isn’t really an awards friendly kind of role. I’m sure he’ll be great, and he will 100% get a nomination again at some point, but not this year. It’ll be very much the Jenkins show I think. Still think Focus could easily field contenders in Belfast, Blue Bayou and Last Night in Soho in a wide range of categories. Belfast for the supporting categories, Blue Bayou for the lead categories, both in director and screenplay, Last Night in Soho as a dark horse for the above-the-line categories and doing well with the technicals. All this is very hypothetical of course but I feel like they have quite a lot of confidence in their films this year.

     

    Thanks for the feedback about Yeun’s role!

    @Jajajajjaja I thought that Jojo Rabbit was BS and such a waste of Picture nomination spot and an embarrassing TIFF win. Kind of movie that got away because of It Director that everyone likes or pretends to like and I guess nostalgia topic that isn’t a sure thing anymore. So if Soho, which at least has much better trailer than anything Jojo ever released (movie itself included), is BS too and gets in because everyone likes or pretends to like Wright, than yes we have the analogy. Especially if it wins TIFF ha ha.

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    loollapalooza1
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    #1204314874

    Sorry, this has absolutely nothing to do with this year but can someone explain how Get Out made it like their campaign and everything? This makes it sound like I doubted it but I’m really interested to know. Did it only go to Sundance?

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    diego
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    #1204314880

    Just watched it. I am now predicting him as the frontrunner and I think he can very much happen. The Supporting Actor Category seems quite barren.

    He has The Humans AND Nightmare Alley. While he can’t get a nomination for both, if acclaimed, he’ll have a lot of goodwill going into the season.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204314892

    They will play BlackKKKkLansman to that, apparently alhtough it doesnt have Spike Lee. I think Focus has its own priorities to their respective “awards push”. Each are pushed for different. fields. Belfast sounds like a traditional acting player Oscar Bait. Either Judi Dench or Catriona Balfe. Soho is more like Tech Player and maybe Screenplay. Its their Crowdpleaser movie, though and perhaps their most expensive movie this year ($43 Million budget). If its gets enough audience hype, Critical acclaim and managed to break even their budget and being strong enough, Directing, Picture and Acting are all possible (I can see Judas happening here). Card Counter sounds like typical Crime flick Oscar Baits. Its more like a Screenplay and acting player with Isaac and Dafoe being the main selling point. Blue Bayou, could be this year BlackKKKkLansman

    I honestly don’t think Focus really knows what their …focus (sorry) this season is. Every one is going to festivals and I think they’re just sort putting them out there and seeing what gains traction. They have an interesting lineup with lots of ? for me:

    LNIS – Good buzz, looks wonderfully stylistic and weighty names attached. But there is (unfortunately) a weak track record for horror/psycho-horrors at awards that lack the social commentary, so can it keep breaking that barrier? They seem to be pushing it early because so much will likely depend on box office.

    Belfast – Could be a strong auteur piece. Or could come off too pseudo-auteur bait fail. For instance, the whole B&W thing makes me raise my eyebrows. On paper it sounds like it’s … trying too hard(?) to be baity and like one of the films that gets lost quickly. I read the November release date as more of a timing thing, like “hey it’s Thanksgiving take your mom to see this Judi Dench movie.” But they’re running it to TIFF so maybe Focus has some confidence.

    Blue Bayou – Could get buried. Or could wind up capturing a lot of hearts and having a run, I could see either.

    Card Counter – I think people are being mislead on the nature of this film by it being labeled “revenge thriller” for some reason. I got a chance to read the script, and it’s not a crime or revenge “thriller” at all. Certainly not a thriller — there’s no action. It’s a very dialogue-forward, very dark, character study. Much like First Reformed. That said, I think it will be divisive and potentially stir up some discourse. I agree this is the one that likely won’t make a picture play, mostly because it’s too dark and has touchy political commentary. It will be pushing screenplay and actor.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204314903

    Belfast smells like another Goldfinch to me. The type of movie that’s supposed to be pure Oscar bait on paper but winds up being a total misfire. If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong, but I’m not convinced that this is a contender.

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    crabbie
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    #1204314913

    He has The Humans AND Nightmare Alley. While he can’t get a nomination for both, if acclaimed, he’ll have a lot of goodwill going into the season.

    Yeah Jenkins looks a pretty firm frontrunner right now. I’m wondering who could challenge him. I initially had Plemons (Power of the Dog) and Dafoe (The Card Counter) as predicted winners but from what I’ve heard their roles seem to be quite small. And we all know how Supporting Actor in particular has been dominated by large amount of screentime…

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204314918

    Belfast smells like another Goldfinch to me. The type of movie that’s supposed to be pure Oscar bait on paper but winds up being a total misfire. If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong, but I’m not convinced that this is a contender.

    Yeah I have exactly the same vibes. Although I hope not Goldfinch bad because good lord.

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