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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 13)

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    Anything
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    #1204300630

    Which is Power of the Dog since it’s confirmed for Venice.

    Pieces of a Woman and The World to Come were also confirmed for Venice last year. That in and of itself doesn’t mean much.

    Look at Netflix in 2019. Marriage Story went to Venice while The Irishman didn’t, but The Irishman was Netflix’s biggest title at the Oscars.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204300633

    Pieces of a Woman and The World to Come were also confirmed for Venice last year. That in and of itself doesn’t mean much.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    fannie cannie
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    #1204300644

    I don’t think people are necessarily just rooting for her because she’s black and only one woman of color has ever won. There’s people who love her and love Aretha Franklin, so it’s not like identity politics is the only reason that people want her to win. Although, if it were, I would agree because that would be tokenism.

    Ah I see thanks for your perspective.

    Oh and for the people in this thread please don’t add poc for the sake of diversity in your predictions , while diversity is important don’t let it be the main reason for your prediction. We can tell whether it’s genuine or not other than that have a great day everyone.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204301011

    Pieces of a Woman and The World to Come were also confirmed for Venice last year. That in and of itself doesn’t mean much. Look at Netflix in 2019. Marriage Story went to Venice while The Irishman didn’t, but The Irishman was Netflix’s biggest title at the Oscars.

    Netflix skipped festivals entirely last year. Pieces of a Woman was bought by Netflix after its Venice premiere, it didn’t have a distributor going in to the festival.

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    TheDreamingHead
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    #1204301059

    I’m only considering Passing because of the Netflix of it all but outside of BAFTA that film is not a sure bet for anything.

    I am not considering CODA. Especially with Apple already having Macbeth.

    MacBeth is A24’s. Apple is just the other distributor, they are still not the main production company. I think Swan Song if done correctly will be Apple’s main push with its stacked A-listers cast

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    Anything
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    #1204301083

    Netflix skipped festivals entirely last year. Pieces of a Woman was bought by Netflix after its Venice premiere, it didn’t have a distributor going in to the festival.

    I didn’t even know Pieces of a Woman was bought my Netflix. My point was just that not all movies that go to Venice end up becoming top Oscar contenders.

    Look at The Irishman and Marriage Story for a better Netflix precedent.

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    SN
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    #1204301173

    A Quiet Place II has been doing really well at the box office. I doubt it goes anywhere at the Oscars but I won’t be surprised if Emily Blunt turns up at SAG again.

    It’s doing well but didn’t cause the same impact of the first film. Highly doubt she’ll be nominated again.

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    SN
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    #1204301175

    MacBeth is A24’s. Apple is just the other distributor, they are still not the main production company. I think Swan Song if done correctly will be Apple’s main push with its stacked A-listers cast

    Apple will essentially be the distributor in terms of campaign just like On the Rocks and Wolfwalkers last year.

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    Lil Tony
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    #1204301195

    If a black woman is not winning, they shouldn’t be nominated. I’m tired of the standards for black women set so high

    A Lady Gaga DEVOTEE

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    Calvin
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    #1204301197

    I think we may be sleeping on The Humans. I don’t say this because it’s based on a Tony-winning play, but I say this because something about it tells me it could be up AMPAS’ alley. It kinda reminds me a little bit of The Father where it’s not just a basic play, there’s actually a lot more to it than just people sitting in a room and talking. For example, the way sound is used in the play because of its setting and how the production design changes throughout is really thought out and interesting. Plus the writing and performances are incredible. I pictured Richard Jenkins in Reed Birney’s part, and I can totally see him pulling that off. So if the film pops up at TIFF or Venice or something and ends up getting similar reviews to The Father, I get to say I told you so.

    Jenkins is my prediction for Supporting Actor at this point, if the film is well-received, that and the fact he’s also in Nightmare Alley bodes well for him.

    I also think it could make it to SAG Ensemble and maybe snag an Adapted Screenplay nom. We’ll see how it pans out.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    Calvin
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    #1204301199

    Ah I see thanks for your perspective. Oh and for the people in this thread please don’t add poc for the sake of diversity in your predictions , while diversity is important don’t let it be the main reason for your prediction. We can tell whether it’s genuine or not other than that have a great day everyone.

    Why would you care so much if someone is predicting POC or not and for whatever reason? How would it affect anything. And especially at this point when we haven’t even seen most of, if any of, the films were predicting. What a strange thing to say.

    Anyway, chalk me in for Tang Wei for Decision to Leave as a wildcard prediction.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    crabbie
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    #1204301201

    Oh and for the people in this thread please don’t add poc for the sake of diversity in your predictions , while diversity is important don’t let it be the main reason for your prediction.

    With last year’s POC acting nominee turnout it would be foolish to not include at least two POC in your acting nomination predictions.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    puck05
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    #1204301210

    Oh and for the people in this thread please don’t add poc for the sake of diversity in your predictions , while diversity is important don’t let it be the main reason for your prediction. We can tell whether it’s genuine or not other than that have a great day everyone.

    Don’t expect any genuinity when almost all of the movies are unseen. These predictions will change wildly throughout the year.

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204301217

    At this point, early predictions  and hype are mostly based on (CMIIW):

    -Directors/crews behind it. Be it the writer, cinematographer, etc

    -The cast

    -The Studio/the distributor behind it

    -The source material

    -The reception after premiering at Festivals (be it Sundance, Tribeca, Toronto, Venice, etc)

    More than Half of these predictions are based on these factors. Now i’ll take few examples

    Nightmare Alley: Guillermo Del Toro is fresh off his BP and Director win, and Nightmare Alley has multiple Academy Awards nominees (Blanchett, Mara, Dafoe, Cooper, Collette). And its Distributed by Searchlight

    Dont Look Up: Adam McKay has a relatively good track record in terms of Nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio, JLaw, Meryl Streep and Cate Blanchett in a same movie?

    Power of the Dog: Jane Campion brought two Oscars to her actors and it has a meaty material for its actors. Great cast with an Academy Award Nominee, One of the most overdue actress of her generation, One of the most prolific character actor and One of the buzziest young starlet.

    Canterbury Glass: We can argue about quality of his Oscar nominated materials, but he lands multiple Oscar nominations and few wins for his actors. Christian Bale is Christian Bale, Everyone seemed to remain obsessed with Margot Robbie, John David Washington and Anya Taylor Joy. The overall cast are stacked AF. And ofc Emmanuel Lubezski and the Score composer of Joker

    House of Gucci: This one is unique, at least to me. Aside from the fact that its directed by Ridley Scott, the Hype also come from Millions stans of Lady Gaga and Adam Driver. The movie also seemed to be typical Crime Flick Oscar bait.

    Soggy Bottom: Its PTA and have Bradley Cooper in it, nuff Said.

    Last Night in Soho: it has Edgar Wright as Director, and an Academy Award nominee co writer, a famous Cinematographer who is arguably overdue, distributed by Focus and it stars a pair of buzziest young actress in their age group as its leads and they promote it as Psycho-Thriller (this kind of Fraudulent worked for Black Swan). The trailer broke the Internet with the movie itself, Wright and Taylor Joy become Trending topic at that time and it gains a real hype from fellow directors, writers and some celebs alike.

    Passing: the Sundance reception apparently brings the real hype and it helps that Netflix acquired it (they know how to get the job done in landing nomination) and an Academy Award nominee.

    Again, we never know. Last year, at this point, we have Kate Winslet and Amy Adams instead of Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby.

    Heck, even people only started to talk about Kirby once Pieces of a Woman premiered at Venice. Who knows Steven Yeun and Riz Ahmed would end up in conversation for Best Actor?

    Long short story, these predictions can change drastically by January 2022 when all of these movies has released.

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    wolfali
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    #1204301272

    Then wins again

    Whilst Regina King is snubbed again (this time for The Harder They Fall)…

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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