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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 13)

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204301843

    I think Mass and Coda are pretty safe for nomination right now, even safer than some works by established directors.

    Not for Mass. Two words: Blecker Street. Been 4 years since they managed to score an acting noms

    Also there is no way a movie with above at least 60 on Metacritic and 60% on Rottentomatoes is panned.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    roger88
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    #1204301847

    Harriet is in the 60s too and US vs BH wasn’t panned

    And who said “Harriet” was panned? You can make a proper individual critique, but that doesn’t mean that’s the whole truth (Regardless of which one said that).

    US vs BH was mixed reviewed thought.

    Panned film means red line, below 40%

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204301854

    But why must they be in a BP contender? Isn’t it best actress or is it best actress in a BP contender? Renée Zellweger was in a stinker last year and she swept the whole season. Billie Holiday couldn’t get the Oscars twice. Tina Turner and Harriet Tubman couldn’t do it and Aretha Franklin won’t either. But Judy Garland, Edith Piaf and Margaret Thatcher all won despite been critically panned. They’re just racist in this category

    Only 1 biracial woman(Halle Berry) winner in 94 years. Yes. Best Actress Oscar is 99% racist.

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    boogiezen
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    #1204301920

    LMAO Marion Cotillard’s performance in La Vie en Rose is possibly one of the greatest acting performances in the history of cinema and putting it in the same sentence with Day, Erivo and even Zelly is blasphemous.

    Not a good example at all.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204301925

    I have some faith that Mass can take off because apparently Bleecker does know what they have on their hands and is gonna campaign it, that was confirmed to me by one of the film’s producers (the same one who told me that Bleecker Street picked it up before it was officially announced). That said, I don’t have enough faith in the movie to put it in Picture. I would like it to get at least one or two nominations, which is totally possible but we’ll see.

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    George Ehret
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    #1204301930

    But why must they be in a BP contender? Isn’t it best actress or is it best actress in a BP contender? Renée Zellweger was in a stinker last year and she swept the whole season. Billie Holiday couldn’t get the Oscars twice. Tina Turner and Harriet Tubman couldn’t do it and Aretha Franklin won’t either. But Judy Garland, Edith Piaf and Margaret Thatcher all won despite been critically panned. They’re just racist in this category

    the circumstances of those races were very different. Day was the sole nomination for her film in a race that was already fucked in a thousand different ways to begin with, Diana Ross had no chance against Liza Minnelli (as did everyone whose name isn’t Liza Minnelli), Harriet had mixed reviews and Erivo probably only got in by the skin of her teeth. That’s not to say that has nothing to do with racism, it’s definitely racist to one degree or another. But it is very possible to get a black woman to win in general but especially if they’re singing so long as they’re campaigned enough so that they sweep. It’s not crazy to think it’s possible.

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Rachel615
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    #1204301934

    I’m not predicting another POC to win in Lead unless their film is nominated in BP or they sweep every precursor. Voters keep trying it SMH.

    Well, in recent decades, it’s also rare for a white actor to win in Lead without a BP nomination or a sweep of precursors. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady is a notable, unfortunate exception. I don’t anticipate predicting ANY actor to win in Lead in the absence of either one.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204301945

    Jenkins is my prediction for Supporting Actor at this point, if the film is well-received, that and the fact he’s also in Nightmare Alley bodes well for him. I also think it could make it to SAG Ensemble and maybe snag an Adapted Screenplay nom. We’ll see how it pans out.

    I’d kind of agree. I was tempted to put The Humans in my Top 5 for S. Actor and S. Actress, but I feel like it could get slept on. Also, I reckon Jenkins could win if he’s the best supporting character in Nightmare Alley (on the male-side that is). However, his main competition is probably going to be Bradley Cooper in the PTA film or Driver in The Last Duel – all of them have been nominated a lot and are very well-regarded in the industry, but haven’t won yet…

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    wolfali
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    #1204301948

    I see only Ann Dowd having a chance for getting in for Mass. The two lead categories are too competitive for Plimpton and Isaacs imo and I’m not confident with Bleecker distributing it.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204301978

    Dont Look Up: Adam McKay has a relatively good track record in terms of Nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio, JLaw, Meryl Streep and Cate Blanchett in a same movie?

    More specifically, McKay was nominated for Best Director for his last two films, in spite of the latter’s lukewarm reception. Also, based on the Netflix teaser, it appears like this could be Netflix’s main priority from both an Awards perspective and audience perspective (outside of Red Notice).

    Power of the Dog: Jane Campion brought two Oscars to her actors and it has a meaty material for its actors. Great cast with an Academy Award Nominee, One of the most overdue actress of her generation, One of the most prolific character actor and One of the buzziest young starlet.[/quote]

    The problem is that Jane Campion’s only awards fame is from The Piano…. which was 27 years ago. And the rest of her filmography is less than stellar. Top Of The Lake is a good omen, though, in fairness. Also, as much as Benedict Cumberbatch and Plemons in a film sounds good on paper… the former hasn’t done anything particularly good in the last 5 years outside of being one of the least memorable Avenger and being the weakest of the main three in The Mauritanian. The latter, also, has been in a lot of good films, but he has rarely been a standout and has, to a certain extent, coasted on his co-stars a little. Just last year he was second to Buckley in I’m Thinking of Ending Things (and arguably Toni Collete) and third to Kaluuya and Stanfield in Judas… And Dunst isn’t such a catch – outside of film twitter and GoldDerby, she isn’t enormously well-regarded (not hated, mind), the exception being Melancholia.  It’s a cast that isn’t quite on the same stature as Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley or Canterbury Glass.

    It’s emininently possible for it to be a Marriage Story or a Chicago 7, but it’s, also, possible for it to end up being another Laundromat/Midnight Sky or, worse yet, a Hillbilly Elergy (but I doubt that).

    Soggy Bottom: Its PTA and have Bradley Cooper in it, nuff Said.[/quote]

    Also, worth pointing out that every single PTA film has been nominated for, at least, one above-the-line category, outside of Punch-Drunk Love (which was an Adam Sandler film – an actor they clearly don’t put in high regard) and Hard Eight (which wasn’t distributed properly and came out in January…).

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204301995

    Only 1 biracial woman(Halle Berry) winner in 94 years. Yes. Best Actress Oscar is 99% racist.

    Yeah, but when has a black actress deserved to win an Oscar? Even when Halle Berry did, I think the consensus is that Naomi Watts gave a better performance?

    I think the one time a black actress 100% deserved to win was with Viola Davis in The Help.

    Alas, that leaves you with the same statistic.

    To me, I think that the problem is the culture itself around the movie industry itself.

    For instance, there is no reason to say that Emma Stone’s role in La La Land has to be played by a white actress. Sure, Stone was great. But I do think Tessa Thompson, for instance, would have done just as good a job.

    The rationale for a decision like that is that, for some reason, black actresses are usually only casts as lead in films to do with racism. This same standard does not apply to black actors – just look at the filmographies of Denzel Washington and Will Smith to see what I mean. Sure, Halle Berry was around for a bit, but there was a reason that it was so surprising to some audiences to see Viola Davis as the lead in Widows.  I think that is more the problem than the Oscars themselves, to be honest. Look at last year and see how both Andra Day and Viola Davis got nominated for movies about racism, whilst Riz Ahmed gets nominated for a film about losing your hearing.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204301999

    Eh i dont want to scare anyone but there are possibilities that The Power of the Dog would ended up like Hillbily Elegy (I hope its a success tho)

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    wolfali
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    #1204302008

    I feel like The Eyes of Tammy Faye could be Hillbilly Elegy mark 2.0. That trailer 💀💀💀

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    #1204302010
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204302020

    Yeah, but when has a black actress deserved to win an Oscar? Even when Halle Berry did, I think the consensus is that Naomi Watts gave a better performance? I think the one time a black actress 100% deserved to win was with Viola Davis in The Help. Alas, that leaves you with the same statistic. To me, I think that the problem is the culture itself around the movie industry itself. For instance, there is no reason to say that Emma Stone’s role in La La Land has to be played by a white actress. Sure, Stone was great. But I do think Tessa Thompson, for instance, would have done just as good a job. The rationale for a decision like that is that, for some reason, black actresses are usually only casts as lead in films to do with racism. This same standard does not apply to black actors – just look at the filmographies of Denzel Washington and Will Smith to see what I mean. Sure, Halle Berry was around for a bit, but there was a reason that it was so surprising to some audiences to see Viola Davis as the lead in Widows. I think that is more the problem than the Oscars themselves, to be honest. Look at last year and see how both Andra Day and Viola Davis got nominated for movies about racism, whilst Riz Ahmed gets nominated for a film about losing your hearing.

    I agree. Only in the last 40 years, Black men were very big movie stars especially Denzel Washington, Eddie Murphy and Will Smith. But Hollywood still has an obsession about lighter tones in women. When some people wanted Idris Elba as James Bond, the racial wars were very awful on Twitter

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