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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 2)

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    Victor
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    #1203996722

    How are the cases in italy and they are shooting there normally?
    I’m not sure if Gucci will make it in time.

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    fefface
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    #1203996736

    How are the cases in italy and they are shooting there normally? I’m not sure if Gucci will make it in time.

    It’s in pre production so seems to be going ahead at least for now.

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    Miles
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    #1203996871

    I mean of course it could be awful (although I don’t see how that’s possible with Wright)

    Pan says hello…

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    wolfali
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    #1203996954

    Pan says hello…

    Pan was directed by Joe Wright. Last Night in SoHo is directed by Edgar Wright.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Miles
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    #1203996992

    Oh I thought you were talking about The Woman in the Window, my bad!

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    wolfali
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    #1203996998

    Oh I thought you were talking about The Woman in the Window, my bad!

    Haha no I was talking about Last Night in SoHo.

    My god The Woman in the Window. That was said to have had a worse response from test audiences than Hillbilly Elegy. Poor Amy.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Magnus
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    #1203997225

    Tbh i expect it to be Blurry as hell between Psycho-Thriller and Psycho-Horror so they could pull a Black Swan or Get Out for their leads, at least. A blurry Horror-Thriller movie is something that The Academy keen to embrace (Get Out and Black Swan). Besides, their Period Pieces label perhaps would be enough to pass the Academy though we never know lol.

    As for now, I dont think Soho will be a straight supernatural horror that the Academy wouldnt embrace normally (“Us”, “Hereditary”)

    Yeah and this is why I’m fairly confident in it but… since it’s somewhat a horror/thriller you can’t deny the chance that it may just go ignored for that reason.

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    schmids
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    #1203997257

    Yeah and this is why I’m fairly confident in it but… since it’s somewhat a horror/thriller you can’t deny the chance that it may just go ignored for that reason.

    Yup. Getting in for genre stuff is always a crapshoot. Portman and Kaluuya made it, Adams and Lupita didn’t.

    Personally I think the performances will have to be undeniable to score acting noms, and even then every category is going to be so stacked it’ll be a long shot.

    I think Soho is more likely to max out at techs and screenplay.

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    Stank83
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    #1203997448

    B. Cooper won’t get a double nomination next year (hell, i don’t even think he’ll be nominated for Nightmare Alley).

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    fefface
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    #1203997455

    B. Cooper won’t get a double nomination next year (hell, i don’t even think he’ll be nominated for Nightmare Alley).

    I don’t think he will either, but I’m biased because I am firmly on the ‘can we please stop nominating Bradley Cooper for acting awards’ train. Although there is part of me that wants him to win so he tones down his intense and cringy thirst for it.

    Do you think we’ll see any double noms next year?

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    fefface
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    wolfali
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    #1203997479

    ‘The Power of the Dog’ is aiming for Venice

    Jane Campion is coming!

    Do you think we’ll see any double noms next year?

    I am currently predicting Adam Driver to get double nominated for Annette and The Last Duel (I think Gucci will get delayed). If both films are big players and he delivers strong performances in both there’s no reason imo to think he can’t at least do what ScarJo did last year.

    I do see a world where Anya Taylor-Joy gets double nominated (and the comparisons between her and Florence Pugh are quite tempting) but I think she has a lot of hurdles and more hurdles than her co-stars. There may be category confusion for The Northman and Last Night in SoHo (although then again that didn’t hurt Brad Pitt last year but he was obviously in a far better situation than she is right now) and whilst Focus could help differentiate her roles in both films it doesn’t help. It also hurts that if she goes supporting for all three of Amsterdam, <i>Last Night in SoHo </i>and The Northman that she could be facing internal competition (with Saldana for Amsterdam, Rigg for SoHo if she gets the posthumous push we think she’ll get and Kidman for The Northman).

    I think at the moment Amsterdam will get Robbie, Bale and at least one performer in supporting actor and that SoHo will get McKenzie and Rigg in. Not as confident as others are in The Northman. It has a big cast and buzz but there seems to be less hype for it (at least at this point) than SoHo and I am getting a strange feeling it could end up being The Beguiled of this season. It still at this point is a contender though.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    fefface
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    #1203997500

    I am currently predicting Adam Driver to get double nominated for Annette and The Last Duel (I think Gucci will get delayed). If both films are big players and he delivers strong performances in both there’s no reason imo to think he can’t at least do what ScarJo did last year.

    I do see a world where Anya Taylor-Joy gets double nominated (and the comparisons between her and Florence Pugh are quite tempting) but I think she has a lot of hurdles and more hurdles than her co-stars. There may be category confusion for The Northman and Last Night in SoHo (although then again that didn’t hurt Brad Pitt last year but he was obviously in a far better situation than she is right now) and whilst Focus could help differentiate her roles in both films it doesn’t help. It also hurts that if she goes supporting for all three of Amsterdam, <i>Last Night in SoHo </i>and The Northman that she could be facing internal competition (with Saldana for Amsterdam, Rigg for SoHo if she gets the posthumous push we think she’ll get and Kidman for The Northman).

    Haha I thought you’d like that news about TPOTD!

    I see what you mean about a path for Driver to get double noms. Duel is just such an unknown quantity, as it’s destined to be divisive – even if they get it ‘right’ there will be people who hate it. I do however think it may surprise us, and I do have faith in Nicole Holofcener who I think is incredible and writes phenomenal female characters. The involvement of her and Comer definitely gives me reason to believe it will be more than just ‘awful men fighting over powerless woman’.

    If the reviews out of Cannes for Annette are good, and/or he wins Actor there he’ll be the early frontrunner I think, especially if Cannes is delayed to July. It sounds like the kind of ‘a lot of work’ performance that the Academy loves (sung, likely to be very physical because Carax, he dropped weight for it etc). Also he seems to already have an ‘overdue’ narrative building.

    I think given the size of the cast of Amsterdam whoever gets the best material of the supporting cast will get the nomination. With so many prestige performers, there are big names who might be in it for just a few scenes, and while those performances have won in Supporting before it could definitely be a hurdle. SoHo I do think will struggle for acting nominations.

    But you’re right, if she’s Supporting in all three she cold end up missing for all of them, either because of internal competition or because voters have too much choice and she splits her own votes.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1203997604

    Haha I thought you’d like that news about TPOTD!

    I honestly cannot wait. I am a massive Campion fan and I’m interested to see how well it does. It’s also interesting because I quite like the films that end up going to Venice. Even this year with the weaker field.

    But you’re right, if she’s Supporting in all three she cold end up missing for all of them, either because of internal competition or because voters have too much choice and she splits her own votes.

    We’ve seen performers overcome this in the past but Taylor-Joy is in a lot of danger here because she’s not a well respected veteran or big star like any of those people who overcame that were (or at least yet).

    . Given the sheer size of the cast, there are big names who might be in it for just a few scenes, and while those performances have won in Supporting before it could definitely be a hurdle. SoHo I do think will struggle for acting nominations.

    The film has a period setting so I think that can really help it like it did with The Favourite. But who knows? Wright and Taylor-Joy already seem to be campaigning. I do think at most it gets (in terms of acting) McKenzie and Rigg in.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    fefface
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    #1203997627

    The film has a period setting so I think that can really help it like it did with The Favourite. But who knows? Wright and Taylor-Joy already seem to be campaigning. I do think at most it gets (in terms of acting) McKenzie and Rigg in.

    The Favourite was a true period drama in the traditional sense though and those tend to do well more than just films set in another decade.

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