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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 2)

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    BudnP
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    #1203997687

    B. Cooper won’t get a double nomination next year (hell, i don’t even think he’ll be nominated for Nightmare Alley).

    Why not? His acting clearly wins over the Academy to a certain degree… I.e. nomination for American Sniper. And it could be argued he’s overdue because he didn’t win for A Star Is Born

    I think for Soggy Bottom, on a statistical level, he is more likely to get a nomination for, becuase every single one of Paul Thomas Anderson’s films (with the exception of Hard Eight) have been nominated for, at least, one acting award at either the Golden Globes or the Oscars. And, given he is the sole big name in the cast, I’d expect him to be in the conversation.

    Nightmare Alley might be a bit of a miss (i.e. Crimson Peak), but I feel like with the cast it has it would be very unfortunate (and I would say unlikely) that it would a similar flop.

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    diego
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    #1203997689

    Not as confident as others are in The Northman. It has a big cast and buzz but there seems to be less hype for it (at least at this point) than SoHo and I am getting a strange feeling it could end up being The Beguiled of this season.

    The problem with the Northman won’t be the buzz. If it’s anything like Eggers’ previous films, then the problem will probably be that it’s too “edgy” for the Academy to embrace.

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    BudnP
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    #1203997694

    Do you think we’ll see any double noms next year?

    Could do for Adam Driver, but I think it depends on how good The Last Duel is. Ridley Scott sometimes does well with the Academy (Gladiator, The Martian); sometimes he doesn’t (American Gangster’s Denzel snub), sometimes his films just aren’t anywhere near warranting that kid of praise (Body Of Lies, Robin Hood, The Counselor).

    To a certain extent, his double nom would, also, count on how accessible Annette is, especially given its very artsy director.

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    diego
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    #1203997701

    To a certain extent, his double nom would, also, count on how accessible Annette is, especially given its very artsy director.

    I’m not counting on Annette being an Oscar thing but I think it could get Adam his Best Actor Award at Cannes.

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    fefface
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    #1203997706

    To a certain extent, his double nom would, also, count on how accessible Annette is, especially given its very artsy director.

    Yeah there are a lot of unknown factors with Annette for sure, but if it does well at Cannes the pedigree of the actors involved might be enough to get it seen. Plus Sparks fans haha.

    Amazon seems confident in it – they’ve kept hold of distribution since 2017 even though the shoot kept getting delayed. But whether or not they can put together a good campaign for it remains to be seen.

    But yeah the fact we’re even discussing the possibility of nominations for a Carax movie seems outrageous.

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    schmids
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    #1203997714

    I’m not counting on Annette being an Oscar thing but I think it could get Adam his Best Actor Award at Cannes.

    Is Spike Lee still going to be jury president? Given he’s a fully paid up member of the ‘directors who love Adam Driver’ fan club I think he’s in with a good shot.

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1203997969

    I am currently predicting Adam Driver to get double nominated for Annette and The Last Duel (I think Gucci will get delayed). If both films are big players and he delivers strong performances in both there’s no reason imo to think he can’t at least do what ScarJo did last year. I do see a world where Anya Taylor-Joy gets double nominated (and the comparisons between her and Florence Pugh are quite tempting) but I think she has a lot of hurdles and more hurdles than her co-stars. There may be category confusion for The Northman and Last Night in SoHo (although then again that didn’t hurt Brad Pitt last year but he was obviously in a far better situation than she is right now) and whilst Focus could help differentiate her roles in both films it doesn’t help. It also hurts that if she goes supporting for all three of Amsterdam, <i>Last Night in SoHo </i>and The Northman that she could be facing internal competition (with Saldana for Amsterdam, Rigg for SoHo if she gets the posthumous push we think she’ll get and Kidman for The Northman). I think at the moment Amsterdam will get Robbie, Bale and at least one performer in supporting actor and that SoHo will get McKenzie and Rigg in. Not as confident as others are in The Northman. It has a big cast and buzz but there seems to be less hype for it (at least at this point) than SoHo and I am getting a strange feeling it could end up being The Beguiled of this season. It still at this point is a contender though.

    You brought up the Power of the Dog, I kinda think that McKenzie has a shot to become double nominee (Lead in Soho and Supporting in Power of The Dog). She is a young acting powerhouse despite being only 20 years old but perhaps she is too young for that to happen.

     

    On a side note, I understand the doubt for Soho to get an acting nomination. However people kinda forget that Get Out, aside from the fact that it is a Psycho-Horror (or Straight up Horror/Psycho-Thriller), it has a social issues, something that The Academy is keen to embrace.

     

    Soho has that factor (Period Pieces are The Academy favourites) and if McKenzie turned in one of the kind of performances (I think she will since She has been exceptional in everything I’ve seen so far in Leave No Trace, Jojo Rabbit. I personally think she was snubbed back to back for those two but her snub was reasonable) then She has big chance to land her first nomination.

     

    I feel bad for Anya though for going supporting in all of her Oscar bait lol though I can see the scenario where McKenzie buzz is ruined by Shyamalan and Focus slotted Anya in lead instead (Despite she is not the true “Main” lead lol)

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    wolfali
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    #1203998067

    In terms of narrative prominence (not awards chances or character) I feel like McKenzie will be like Leonardo DiCaprio in OUATIH in the sense that she is definitely the capital lead of the film whilst Taylor-Joy is the Pitt in the sense that she’s less of a lead but still very much a big lead and is frauded into supporting.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    HaimOnRye
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    #1203998478

    Last Night in Soho and Don’t Worry Darling both psychological thrillers set in the mid 1900s and great lead actresses (Taylor-Joy, Pugh). Has this genre always been so popular?

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    HaimOnRye
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    #1203998480

    They also both have the idealization of the period they are set in (California in the 1950s, London in the 60s) which then ends up being “not what it seems”. I find it really interesting.

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    schmids
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    #1203998525

    You brought up the Power of the Dog, I kinda think that McKenzie has a shot to become double nominee (Lead in Soho and Supporting in Power of The Dog). She is a young acting powerhouse despite being only 20 years old but perhaps she is too young for that to happen. On a side note, I understand the doubt for Soho to get an acting nomination.

    Mackenzie has a shot at a nomination this year but she’s not getting doubles. I don’t think she’s established enough yet. It’s only happened four times in the last 20 years, and it’ll be hard for anyone to get doubles especially next year because there’s just so much coming out.

    Also people who get double nominations rarely actually win any more – Jamie Foxx is the only one in the last two decades to get double nominations and win one. Before that it was Holly Hunter.

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1203998561

    Last Night in Soho and Don’t Worry Darling both psychological thrillers set in the mid 1900s and great lead actresses (Taylor-Joy, Pugh). Has this genre always been so popular?

     

    Its not that popular as far as i know. And both are closer to Psycho-Horror (I heard somewhere that Dont Worry Darling is a Psycho-Horror, some said its Psycho-Thriller while Last Night in Soho, as confirmed by Wright is a Psycho-Horror though i expect it to be Blurry as hell between Psycho-Horror or Psycho-Thriller).

     

    Uniquely, both are directed by directors known for their comedy feature (Wright and Wilde) and Anyway, Taylor Joy is the co-lead.

    Mackenzie has a shot at a nomination this year but she’s not getting doubles. I don’t think she’s established enough yet. It’s only happened four times in the last 20 years, and it’ll be hard for anyone to get doubles especially next year because there’s just so much coming out. Also people who get double nominations rarely actually win any more – Jamie Foxx is the only one in the last two decades to get double nominations and win one. Before that it was Holly Hunter.

     

    I know and thats why i mentioned she is too young to score a double nomination and she has been in the Industry for only 2 years. Still she has shot for both Lead and Supporting

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    mansos
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    #1203998576

    I read a draft of the Don’t Worry Darling script a while back and I don’t wanna spoil anything but I’d say it’s definitely a thriller film rather than horror. I can also mention that the script by the Van Dyke brothers was quite bad, but I have some hope now that Katie Silberman (the Booksmart writer) is on board. Hopefully she’s able to do some rewrites to improve the script.

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    HaimOnRye
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    #1204000078

    Agree with this, definitely thriller. I guess you could say Pugh is a co-lead too, with Styles – I mentioned her because a lot of people on here were comparing her success to Taylor Joy’s. I read the DWD old script too so when I read the summary of Last Night in Soho it really hit me how similar the premiss is. Don’t want to spoil anything so I’ll leave it at that, but I can’t wait to talk about it once we know more on both movies.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1204000098

    A Quiet Place Part 2 has been delayed again until September…Emily Blunt rises

    FYC:

    Vitalina Varela, Vitalina Varela (Actress)
    Andrea Riseborough, Karim Saleh, Possessor/Luxor (Actress, Actor)
    Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage, I Care a Lot (Actress, Supporting Actor)
    Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren, The Duke (Actor, Supporting Actress)
    Sophia Loren, Abril Zamora, The Life Ahead (Actress, Supporting Actress)
    Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (Actress)

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