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Cotillard is supporting in Annette? I feel they may fraud her in Lead anyway, she’s a household name in that category at this point I don’t how big Toni Collette’s role in Nightmare Alley will be, but she’s soooo overdue for some awards love, and feel everybody realised about that after the big moment she had with Hereditary
If we take the plot synopsis at face value it’s entirely possible that she’s Supporting, yes. But given that the movie is likely to take an unusual approach to storytelling it’s impossible to really know.
No one has won Lead Actor for a straight-up musical since 1964. It’s a huge ask. And I don’t think anyone has ever won at Cannes for a musical.
I feel quite confident about him winning Cannes? Isn’t Lee the jury president there?
I understand your pessimism but I think whilst there is no precedence for him to win that precedence can be broken in the correct circumstances and with the right campaign. During the 2019 Oscars people went on about how there was no precedence for Phoenix and then he won. Same this year with Mulligan getting a nomination. I think if Amazon drives a similar “underrated actor who is incredibly talented” narrative that WB did with Phoenix and Focus did with Mulligan that he could win.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
I feel quite confident about him winning Cannes? Isn’t Lee the jury president there? I understand your pessimism but I think whilst there is no precedence for him to win that precedence can be broken in the correct circumstances and with the right campaign. During the 2019 Oscars people went on about how there was no precedence for Phoenix and then he won. Same this year with Mulligan getting a nomination. I think if Amazon drives a similar “underrated actor who is incredibly talented” narrative that WB did with Phoenix and Focus did with Mulligan that he could win.
Yes Spike Lee is the jury president, and we do know he’s a huge Driver fan. I’m sure he’ll jump at the chance to reward him.
It’s not that I think he can’t win – based on what’s been said so far by Sparks etc I am fully expecting this performance to blow my mind, and it’s a high work rate type performance that the Academy enjoys rewarding (and the possibility of being in prosthetics for even part of is another box checked). Plus Driver arguably has an overdue narrative already despite the fact he’s only been working for a decade.
I just think there are definite hurdles.
LEAD ACTOR
1. Adam Driver, Annette/Gucci
2. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
3. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
5. Christian Bale, Amsterdam
6. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. Oscar Isaac, The Card Counter
8. Leonardo Dicaprio, Don’t Look Up
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
10. Matt Damon, The Last Duel
11. Will Smith, King Richard
12. Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing
13. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
14. Anthony Ramos, In The Heights
15. Alexander Skarsgard, The NorthmanLEAD ACTRESS
1. Lady Gaga, Gucci
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
4. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up/Red, White and Water
6. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
7. Halle Berry, Bruised
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
9. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
11. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
12. Thomasin McKenzie, Last Night in Soho
13. Ana De Armas, Blonde
14. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
15. Kristen Stewart, SpencerSUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Adam Driver, The Last Duel/Gucci
2. Jeremy Irons, Gucci
3. Al Pacino, Gucci
4. Robert Deniro, Gucci
5. Jared Leto, Gucci
6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
7. Stellan Skarsgard, Dune
8. Michael Shannon, Amsterdam
9. Willem Dafoe, The Northman/The Card Counter
10. Richard Jenkins, The Humans/Nightmare Alley
11. Ethan Hawke, The Northman
12. Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth
13. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
14. Adrien Brody, Blonde
15. Matt Smith, Last Night in SohoSUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho/Amsterdam/The Northman
2. Zoe Saldana, Amsterdam
3. Toni Collete, Nightmare Alley
4. Ann Dowd, Mass
5. Elizabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
6. Marion Cotillard, Annette
7. Regina King, The Harder They Fall
8. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place II
9. Ruth Negga, Passing
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
11. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley
12. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter
13. Sally Hawkins, Spencer
14. Julianne Moore, Dear Evan Hansen
15. Amy Adams, Dear Evan HansenI just think there are definite hurdles.
Oh absolutely. I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win at all (I apologise if it came across that way). Especially considering the competition.
I hope Driver wins but in a way I want Bradley Cooper to win because his thirst for an Oscar is getting irritating and coming across as patronising at this point.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
The way Adam Driver’s entry for lead and supporting are both win competitive.
We have no choice but to stan 😌
The Lost Daughter is starting to appear in people’s predictions very similar to how The Father was this time last year (underrated). The directorial debut of Maggie Gyllenhaal is alike to Florian Zeller, considering her name is already established I think it could reciprocate similar buzz around the father, if the quality is considered consistently very good. Olivia Colman & Dakota Johnson have the acting talent and names to carry it to the Oscars if the source material, script & direction is strong enough I think.
FYC OSCARS : THE FATHER IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP SUPP ACTRESS - OLIVIA COLMAN, ACTOR - ANTHONY HOPKINS), VANESSA KIRBY FOR PIECES OF A WOMAN
I think the Cannes win then building momentum to wider awards narrative/path for Driver for Annette is a strong shout. He also has a back up supporting bid for TLD or category fraud for Gucci as options. I also think he has a stronger “overdue” narrative than Cooper because despite Cooper’s many noms, there isn’t a single one where anyone thinks he should have won, whereas you could easily make that argument for Driver from Marriage Story.
My biggest concern that’s holding him back from being the frontrunner in lead or supporting is there’s still a big question mark over how good or well-received Annette, TLD and Gucci will be. I mean he could still win on a singluarly great performance, but he’ll need at least one of these films to receive widespread critical acclaim and another big nomination to get to the Oscar.
Although that said, this thread has now talked him into my predicted winner slot now as well.
Is Dakota Johnson really going to be the main supporting push for The Lost Daughter? I always thought it would be Jessie Buckley for some reason.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
I’m not too sure, they’re both established in very similar ways in their careers right now so I assume it’ll come down to whose performance is stronger or who has more screen time.
FYC OSCARS : THE FATHER IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP SUPP ACTRESS - OLIVIA COLMAN, ACTOR - ANTHONY HOPKINS), VANESSA KIRBY FOR PIECES OF A WOMAN
Oh absolutely. I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win at all (I apologise if it came across that way). Especially considering the competition.
I hope Driver wins but in a way I want Bradley Cooper to win because his thirst for an Oscar is getting irritating and coming across as patronising at this point.
Wait till we get to Maestro. Once he lose for Nightmare Alley, I can only imagine the irritation by that time. But I do wonder if he’ll get both Lead Actor and Director at the same time for Maestro.
I’m not too sure, they’re both established in very similar ways in their careers right now so I assume it’ll come down to whose performance is stronger or who has more screen time.
This.
That’s why I am undecided on who to put between them in my predictions. But I am inclined to believe that Jessie Buckley may be in flashbacks with a lesser screentime than Olivia.
I hope Driver wins but in a way I want Bradley Cooper to win because his thirst for an Oscar is getting irritating and coming across as patronising at this point.
Haha same – part of me wants him to never win because I don’t particularly rate him as an actor but the other part wants him to so he dials back his intense thirst because I just can’t take the cringe. I also think he deserved a maximum of one of his previous acting noms. I have him missing for Nightmare Alley too.
Driver is a significantly better actor IMO, which also makes it interesting to me that Lady Gaga is going from having Cooper as a scene partner to having Driver. Very intrigued to see how they do together (and not just because she’ll probably have to stand on a box for most of it).
I’m not too sure, they’re both established in very similar ways in their careers right now so I assume it’ll come down to whose performance is stronger or who has more screen time.
Good point. Buckley’s role sounded more interesting on paper and she has more going behind her at the moment (more prestige, more buzz, rising faster in attention from the industry and her peers in the US). But who knows?
(and not just because she’ll probably have to stand on a box for most of it).
Lady Gaga should ask Gillian Anderson if she can borrow her box from The X Files.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Very intrigued to see how they do together (and not just because she’ll probably have to stand on a box for most of it).
LMAO I saw Driver in Burn This and he’s a genuinely huge dude in person. His hands and feet are absolutely outrageous.
Just Googled it and Gaga is apparently somewhere between 5’0 and 5’1.
I also have Cooper missing for Nightmare Alley, which means that by the time Maestro comes around I may have to skip an awards season to avoid second-hand embarrassment.
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