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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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    Igor Alves
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    (replying both wolfali and rmcd8)

    I don’t like most of Bradley’s noms either, but we have to face that a lot of noms automatically translate to overdue for the industry, and ok maybe that narrative won’t take off this time especially bc he’s still young, but it will eventually.  Amy Adams is on the same path.

    Even if Driver wins at Cannes and Annette is acclaimed, it still sounds like not an oscar type of movie at all. If Driver is nominated for it that’d be impressive enough, but I can’t see him winning unless they embrace the film as a whole which is very unlikely.

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    schmids
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    If Driver is nominated for it that’d be impressive enough, but I can’t see him winning unless they embrace the film as a whole which is very unlikely.

    Plenty of acting winners have won without their film being beloved before. Not saying that’s Driver’s road because I agree the film is a hard sell but there is precedent for it.

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    Igor Alves
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    Plenty of acting winners have won without their film being beloved before. Not saying that’s Driver’s road because I agree the film is a hard sell but there is precedent for it.

    But those are usually accessible and generic bait. And it’s also easier for women to win for sole noms.

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    Butz
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    I just noticed that Amy Adams and Christian Bale have scored three Oscar nominations alongside each other (The Fighter, American Hustle, Vice). I wonder if there are similar cases with other actors and actresses.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    wolfali
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    Even if Driver wins at Cannes and Annette is acclaimed, it still sounds like not an oscar type of movie at all. If Driver is nominated for it that’d be impressive enough, but I can’t see him winning unless they embrace the film as a whole which is very unlikely.

    This is true but I think what we’ve seen over the past few years is a shift in the types of films the Academy leans towards. As evidenced by Joaquin Phoenix’s win, through Carey Mulligan’s potential win, Parasite‘s BP win, Moonlight‘s BP win. No longer are we in the era where having an Oscar bait biopic is what you need to win (that’s not to say Oscar bait biopics don’t win anymore because look at Green Book but they win less and less). I think the membership has become more international and younger.

    So whilst I think Driver has some hurdles to pass, I don’t think it’s impossible for him to win if the performance is there, the film is there and he’s campaigned well.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    walkinuniverse
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    Adam Driver can get nods for one of Ridley Scott’s films this year in addition to Annette. Scott’s films in the BP lineup can help push his performance in Annette just as Margot Robbie’s nomination for Bombshell was also partly due to her role in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and with it being in the BP line up.

    This is with the assumption that Annette will be received well enough once it premieres at Cannes. But Annette getting in at BP isn’t impossible.

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    Igor Alves
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    This is true but I think what we’ve seen over the past few years is a shift in the types of films the Academy leans towards. As evidenced by Joaquin Phoenix’s win, through Carey Mulligan’s potential win, Parasite‘s BP win, Moonlight‘s BP win. No longer are we in the era where having an Oscar bait biopic is what you need to win (that’s not to say Oscar bait biopics don’t win anymore because look at Green Book but they win less and less). I think the membership has become more international and younger. So whilst I think Driver has some hurdles to pass, I don’t think it’s impossible for him to win if the performance is there, the film is there and he’s campaigned well.

    Good points, but we have to keep in mind that Moonlight and Promising Young Woman have a social importance factor, and Joker was a phenomenon that made over 1 billion at the B.O.

    Annette won’t have either the social importance factor or that kind of B.O, so it’s even harder sell.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    Exciting. 2021, 2022 and 2023 are already Way Better than 2020

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    Deadline Hollywood said David Fincher, Michael Fassbender and the writer of SE7EN are making a New Thriller

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    schmids
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    Exciting. 2021, 2022 and 2023 are already Way Better than 2020

    Yup. I’m definitely spending more time here than in any 2021 thread at this stage.

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    borisy
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    gucci is starting production

    cast already in Rome

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    Yup. I’m definitely spending more time here than in any 2021 thread at this stage.

    Same. 3 Ridley Scott films, Scorsese, Fincher, Miller, etc….

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    kaziz
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    I just hope Netflix campaigns both Passing ladies leading. Negga is definitely going leading because her role is baitier and she’s already an Oscar nominee.

    Negga’s character is definitely supporting in the novel. It’s not like Carol—Negga’s character definitely incites the events of the novel, yes, but the lead character i.e. who the story is told through, is definitely that played by Tessa Thompson. It would be a really awful case of category fraud if the film goes like the novel.

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    kaziz
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    I can see a world where Cumberbatch goes supporting for The Power of the Dog so as to not split with himself for Louis Wain.

    This is impossible. Cumberbatch is not just the lead character in the story, he IS the story. His character’s tension & relationship with Dunst is a way for the story to get out. The entire novel is not just Cumberbatch’s character all the time, but also it is about probing who this man really is (and to a lesser degree, who Kirsten Dunst’s character really is).

    Not to mention—if Cumberbatch goes supporting here, he’ll get in the way of Jesse Plemons & Kodi Smit-McPhee, the former of whom is an it-actor, the latter who has an incredible supporting character that will be nominated unless Smit-McPhee egregiously screws it up.

    The more interesting case is that Kirsten Dunst may be able to go either lead or supporting. It’s not totally clear-cut even in the novel, even though her character is the only one outside of Cumberbatch’s who has a journey separate from the other main characters. In all likelihood, she’s going to look very much like a Lead Actress because Campion is probably going to elevate her character’s presence even more than it already is, but I can see Netflix doing it based on which is more likely. The reason I think Campion’s beefing up Kirsten Dunst’s character even more is because I just found out that the character Thomasin Mackenzie is playing is a character who is in conversation with only Dunst’s character very briefly (a few pages) in the novel. I doubt Mackenzie would merely make a cameo.

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    Sir Pierce
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    (replying both wolfali and rmcd8) I don’t like most of Bradley’s noms either, but we have to face that a lot of noms automatically translate to overdue for the industry, and ok maybe that narrative won’t take off this time especially bc he’s still young, but it will eventually. Amy Adams is on the same path. Even if Driver wins at Cannes and Annette is acclaimed, it still sounds like not an oscar type of movie at all. If Driver is nominated for it that’d be impressive enough, but I can’t see him winning unless they embrace the film as a whole which is very unlikely.

    I agree with this. It seems more in the arthouse vein. I wouldn’t be surprised if he swept with the critics, but didn’t do so great at the actual Oscars – kind of like Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, Collette in Hereditary and, to a lesser extent, Sandler in Uncut Gems.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
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