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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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    wolfali
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    #1204061114

    At the moment I’m thinking.

    Picture: <i>The Power of the Dog </i>vs The French Dispatch
    Director: Jane Campion vs Wes Anderson
    Actor: Adam Driver vs Denzel Washington
    Actress: Kirsten Dunst vs Margot Robbie
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe vs ?
    S. Actress: Jodie Comer vs Diana Rigg
    Original Screenplay: The French Dispatch vs Last Night in SoHoo
    Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog vs The Tragedy of Macbeth

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1204061137

    Picture: Don’t Look Up (The French Dispatch)
    Director: Wes Anderson (Guillermo Del Toro)
    Actor: Bradley Cooper (Adam Driver)
    Actress: Margot Robbie (Ana De Armas)
    Supp. Actor: Richard Jenkins (Idris Elba)
    Supp. Actress: Meryl Streep (Toni Collette)
    Original Screenplay: Don’t Look Up (The French Dispatch)
    Adapted Screenplay: Nightmare Alley (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

     

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Straight/BLM

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    fefface
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    #1204061247

    Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar (potentially)  

    I thought it was already confirmed it won’t qualify?

    S. Actress: Jodie Comer vs Diana Rigg

    I know I keep saying it, but I really really do think Jodie Comer will go Lead.

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1204061253

    The HFPA is looking at potentially changing the rules so it can qualify because it wasn’t screened.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Straight/BLM

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    fefface
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    #1204061274

    The HFPA is looking at potentially changing the rules so it can qualify because it wasn’t screened.

    Ah my bad I must have missed that update!

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    tsc
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    #1204061324

    I love jodie and she is a great actress, but there is something that makes me skeptical about her winning. I feel it’s too early for her to win an Oscar and I don’t think she’s as loved as she was before (thanks to the controversy of her trump supporter boyfriend) and the film is controversial, but I can see her being nominated as a supporting actress

    Idk…It all depends, however, on the reception of the film

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    TeaCopo
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    #1204061343

    https://deadline.com/2021/02/meryl-streep-michael-cristofer-places-please-movie-broadway-homage-how-to-save-theater-pandemic-1234700906/

     

    “In the film, Streep will play Lillian Hall, an actress who is synonymous with Broadway. Throughout her long, illustrious career, she has never missed a performance—not for her daughter, not for illness, not for any reason. Yet in the rehearsals leading to her next Broadway production, her confidence is challenged. People and events conspire to take away her ability to do what she loves most. Suddenly, Hall is forced to reckon with the past and the price she has paid for the choices she made in her life and her art.”

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    fefface
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    #1204061352

    I love jodie and she is a great actress, but there is something that makes me skeptical about her winning. I feel it’s too early for her to win an Oscar and I don’t think she’s as loved as she was before (thanks to the controversy of her trump supporter boyfriend) and the film is controversial, but I can see her being nominated as a supporting actress Idk…It all depends, however, on the reception of the film

    Pretty sure the whole ‘Trump supporter boyfriend’ thing was a classic ‘Twitter blows up over nothing’ moment with little actual substance.

    I don’t think she’s winning. But I do think she’ll go Lead.

    Like you said the film’s subject matter is controversial – I imagine the studio will want to avoid any accusation that her character is just there in service of the story of a male lead. She’s the lead female character. The entire plot hinges on her. Based on what I know of the plot she’s likely to be in most of it.

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    Synthadora
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    #1204061416

    I don’t think she’s as loved as she was before (thanks to the controversy of her trump supporter boyfriend) 

    Pretty sure the whole ‘Trump supporter boyfriend’ thing was a classic ‘Twitter blows up over nothing’ moment with little actual substance. I don’t think she’s winning. But I do think she’ll go Lead. The entire plot hinges on her. Based on what I know of the plot she’s likely to be in most of it.

    It should but I’m sure Damon pitched this movie with the intention entirely on the duel it’s self. I think the studio would push her for supporting to make it easier to cumulate those noms. Looking at this thread however I fear the comp is harder than lead for a debut performance to get in. She’s goes for lead? She’s not getting in.

    One movie I’m strangely fixated on is the eyes of tammy faye. It feels like it would do well at the globes and no where else if it ends up with a green metascore. On the men side I’m putting all my stock into the tragedy of macbeth,  looking forward to cumberbatch however and Isaacs mass

     

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    fefface
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    #1204061449

    It should but I’m sure Damon pitched this movie with the intention entirely on the duel it’s self. I think the studio would push her for supporting to make it easier to cumulate those noms. Looking at this thread however I fear the comp is harder than lead for a debut performance to get in. She’s goes for lead? She’s not getting in. One movie I’m strangely fixated on is the eyes of tammy faye. It feels like it would do well at the globes and no where else if it ends up with a green metascore. On the men side I’m putting all my stock into the tragedy of macbeth, looking forward to cumberbatch however and Isaacs mass

    You do know why they duel, right? The plot hinges on Marguerite no matter which way you slice it. And sure some of the other stuff about jealousy and politics will come into it, but they brought in Nicole Holofcener for a reason and I doubt it’s to write a secondary character. Comer herself recently described the character as someone who ‘risked her life and reclaimed her life’. She’s going to be significant.

    They also have a potential additional Supporting Actress push in Harriet Walter.

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    mansos
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    #1204061451

    At the moment I’m thinking. Picture: <i>The Power of the Dog </i>vs The French Dispatch Director: Jane Campion vs Wes Anderson Actor: Adam Driver vs Denzel Washington Actress: Kirsten Dunst vs Margot Robbie S. Actor: Willem Dafoe vs ? S. Actress: Jodie Comer vs Diana Rigg Original Screenplay: The French Dispatch vs Last Night in SoHoo Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog vs The Tragedy of Macbeth

    I’m very doubtful regarding Dafoe. The character’s role in the book is very very small and I think this will be more of a cameo than a supporting role. Going by the book, the most likely contender is Richard Jenkins, or maybe David Strathairn (even if that role is quite small, too).

    All in all, if the film is going to get acting nominations, I think it can’t be anyone other than Cooper, Mara, Blanchett and Jenkins.

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    Mickmack
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    #1204061563

    What makes Robbie’s role a winning role?

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    wolfali
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    #1204061645

    With regards to Jodie I think she still is very much loved. She’s well respected by her peers and people like Reese Witherspoon, Sarah Paulson and Taika Waititi sometimes share her posts (Killing Eve is a very popular show). She’s also getting lots of leading/principal supporting film roles. I can’t remember who but someone said she may even end up being the next Meryl Streep lol (wouldn’t that be something for someone from Merseyside!)

    With regards to my prediction of her winning I only have her there because she makes the most sense to me. She’d continue the Emmy –> Oscar supporting actress winner trend (although unless Glenn wins that trend will probably be broken this year). She’s quite popular right now and this role seems quite baity.

    However I do think there is a chance that Diana Rigg takes it. It all really depends on the size of her role in Last Night in SoHo (if it’s a Boseman type one in Da 5 Bloods then she’s definitely not winning). She has a strong narrative in that if she wins she’ll become a triple crown winner. My only issue is there also seems to be a strong push for Anya Taylor-Joy and she has the baitiest role out of all the performers in the film. We also don’t know how actors will respond to this film.

    I know I keep saying it, but I really really do think Jodie Comer will go Lead.

    This is possible. She is the principal female character and there could very well be a big push for Harriet Walter (almost like there was for Regina King and Laura Dern).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204061701

    She has a strong narrative in that if she wins she’ll become a triple crown winner. My only issue is there also seems to be a strong push for Anya Taylor-Joy and she has the baitiest role out of all the performers in the film..

    You… read the script???

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    Rmcd8
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    Jan 3rd, 2020
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    #1204062364

    This is what I am thinking too. I mean who else is there to beat her? Lawrence feels like she’ll just get the 4th slot at best and the other names being floated around don’t seem like Oscar contenders. I think the Drama Globe will go to Kirsten (the Globes love “moments” and “overdue narratives”) and the Comedy Globe will go to Margot (one of the biggest stars in Hollywood right now and someone who people seem to be dying to award). And that the race will be between the two. Whilst I’m not predicting it I can see it come down to the race being tight between the two with Margot winning the BAFTA and Kirsten winning SAG.

    If Jennifer Hudson is an oscar nom contender then I could see her taking the musical/comedy globe depending on whether Respect qualifies.

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