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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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    fefface
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    #1204063137

    My gut says Adam Driver or Michael Fassbender as the frontrunners but I’m not so sure until I see a teaser or something. Though, I get the idea of Denzel’s likelihood of a nomination.

    Driver has bigger hurdles than Denzel – no one has won Leading Actor for a musical since 1964, and further back still for an original musical. There have been nominations but no wins.

    And I agree it’s very early. If we do see an Annette trailer next week that might give us clues re: Driver but Denzel just feels safer to me for now.

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    schmids
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    #1204063594

    I agree that Denzel is a safer bet than Driver at this point, but there are some very interesting points being raised about Macbeth not being enough of a fresh take to really resonate.

    The actors will probably get it over the line to being well reviewed but it’s definitely something to think about.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204063771

    It’s very rare for a film to get into all four acting categories, but there are two this year that seem like they could make it.

    The Power of the Dog will likely have Dunst and Cumberbatch in Lead with Plemons and McKenzie in supporting.

    I’m not sure if Nightmare Alley has a lead actress, but with three strong supporting ladies it would be smart of them to spread out a bit. I think they could be running Cooper and Blanchett in lead with Dafoe and Collette/Mara in supporting.

    Amsterdam could as well, with Robbie/Bale/Washington all looking very good, but I’m expecting Last Night in Soho to be Taylor-Joy’s big supporting push, and none of the other ladies feel like Oscar contenders. However, Saldana or Riseborough could blow us out of the water and put it with the previously mentioned. Russell’s films are the only ones since 1981 to do this, so it’s possible.

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    wolfali
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    #1204063789

    I wonder if Taylor-Joy will have Amsterdam as her big push on the basis that Last Night in SoHo might push Rigg more. Or if she’ll go lead for SoHo (but that seems difficult because McKenzie seems lead and it will be hard to argue that she’s more supporting than Taylor-Joy if we’re to believe the log-line that’s been released).

    I do think Focus and Wright are going to campaign her hard for SoHo. It’s more of a baseless assumption although I kind of feel there’s going to be a big push for her because all but one or two of the official stills released from the film are of her or involve her.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Heptapod
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    #1204063799

    (By likeliness of nomination, not win.)

    PICTURE:
    1. Nightmare Alley
    2. The Power of the Dog
    3. Last Night in Soho
    4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    5. Soggy Bottom
    6. In the Heights
    7. Amsterdam
    8. Next Goal Wins
    9. The French Dispatch
    10. Red White and Water
    11. Eternals
    12. House of Gucci
    13. Spencer
    14. Dear Evan Hansen
    15. Don’t Look Up

    DIRECTOR:
    1. Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley
    2. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
    3. Edgar Wright for Last Night in Soho
    4. Joel Coen for The Tragedy of Macbeth
    5. Paul Thomas Anderson for Soggy Bottom
    6. Chloé Zhao for Eternals
    7. Wes Anderson for The French Dispatch
    8. Taika Waititi for Next Goal Wins
    9. David O. Russell for Amsterdam
    10. Pablo Larraín for Spencer

    LEAD ACTOR:
    1. Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth
    2. Christian Bale in Amsterdam
    3. Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley
    4. Will Smith in King Richard
    5. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
    6. Anthony Ramos in In the Heights
    7. Michael Fassbender in Next Goal Wins
    8. Andrew Garfield in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    9. Jonathan Majors in The Harder They Fall
    10. Al Pacino in House of Gucci

    LEAD ACTRESS:
    1. Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth
    2. Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
    3. Cate Blanchett/Rooney Mara in Nightmare Alley
    4. Margot Robbie in Amsterdam
    5. Jennifer Lawrence in Red White and Water
    6. Halle Berry in Bruised
    7. Kristen Stewart in Spencer
    8. Ana de Armas in Blonde
    9. Thomasin McKenzie in Last Night in Soho
    10. Lady Gaga in House of Gucci

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    1. Willem Dafoe in Nightmare Alley
    2. Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom
    3. Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog
    4. John David Washington in Amsterdam
    5. Brian Tyree Henry in Red White and Water
    6. Adam Driver in House of Gucci
    7. Benny Safdie in Soggy Bottom
    8. Delroy Lindo in The Harder They Fall
    9. Michael Shannon in Nightmare Alley
    10. Richard E. Grant in Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    1. Cate Blanchett/Rooney Mara in Nightmare Alley
    2. Anya Taylor-Joy in Last Night in Soho
    3. Thomasin McKenzie in The Power of the Dog
    4. Toni Collette in Nightmare Alley
    5. Elisabeth Moss in Next Goal Wins
    6. Ruth Negga in Passing
    7. Meryl Streep in Don’t Look Up
    8. Amy Adams/Julianne Moore in Dear Evan Hansen
    9. Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard
    10. Sally Hawkins in Spencer

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    1. Last Night in Soho
    2. The French Dispatch
    3. CODA
    4. Soggy Bottom
    5. Amsterdam
    6. Red White and Water
    7. C’mon C’mon
    8. Spencer
    9. King Richard
    10. Don’t Look Up

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    1. Nightmare Alley
    2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    3. The Power of the Dog
    4. Next Goal Wins
    5. Passing
    6. House of Gucci
    7. Dear Evan Hansen
    8. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    9. Blonde
    10. Those Who Wish Me Dead

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204063806

    I wonder if Taylor-Joy will have Amsterdam as her big push on the basis that Last Night in SoHo might push Rigg more. Or if she’ll go lead for SoHo (but that seems difficult because McKenzie seems lead and it will be hard to argue that she’s more supporting than Taylor-Joy if we’re to believe the log-line that’s been released). I do think Focus and Wright are going to campaign her hard for SoHo. It’s more of a baseless assumption although I kind of feel there’s going to be a big push for her because all but one or two of the official stills released from the film are of her or involve her.

    Her going lead for Soho is still possible tho. In case McKenzie screwed up big time in that Shyamaladingdong movie, Focus could campaign Anya in lead and Rigg in Supporting so the other movie Anya is in wont cancel each other that hard. Unless she is a Tyler Durden to McKenzie’s character, she still could go for lead

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    wolfali
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    #1204063808

    Red, White and Water has been delayed because there are going to be reshoots.

    With regards to Dear Evan Hansen (I am not familiar with the source material but I have heard of it) as far as I’m aware Moore has the baitier and bigger showcase than Adams but both have strong enough material to get nominated if it isn’t changed too much from the musical and isn’t a dud or a flop.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Miles
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    #1204063836

    I saw the show on Broadway and while I didn’t love it, the actress playing Heidi (Moore’s character) made me cry on multiple occasions. Many standout acting moments. The question is will they keep her big song? Moore is not known to be a singer but it really is the best part of the whole show.

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    walkinuniverse
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    #1204063842

    There’s going to be a lot of musicals this year. The Golden Globe Best Picture for Comedy/Musical will be a bloodbath. It’s exciting! It’s becoming stacked. The French Dispatch will have some great competition with atleast 2 of the musicals this year.

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204063875

    I saw the show on Broadway and while I didn’t love it, the actress playing Heidi (Moore’s character) made me cry on multiple occasions. Many standout acting moments. The question is will they keep her big song? Moore is not known to be a singer but it really is the best part of the whole show.

    The question is also will it follow the same plot? Ben Platt is too old actually to play this character with the same fresh quality the way he used to do, so it’s possible for them to do the continuation of the stage musical.

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    kaziz
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    #1204063877

    The Power of the Dog will likely have Dunst and Cumberbatch in Lead with Plemons and McKenzie in supporting

    Dunno how many times I’ve pointed this out now, but based on the novel, the best role after Cumberbatch and Dunst’s is that played by Kodi Smit-McPhee. There’s really no way an adaptation could do well if he doesn’t do a good job.

    McKenzie is a beefed up version of a character that was only around for like…a few pages. But I don’t know how it could be beefed up enough to be anywhere near as effective as Cumberbatch, Dunst, McPhee or Plemons’ roles. Hell, I actually think Frances Conroy may have the better role. It’s a small role, but an important one.

    But the ensemble is stacked AF — there’s at least 3 other people who could make credible supporting bids: Keith Carradine, Karl Willetts, Adam Beach. They all pale in comparison to Dunst and Cumberbatch but still.

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204063894

    Hell, I actually think Frances Conroy may have the better role. It’s a small role, but an important one. 

    The way she’s going to win the Oscar even before she gets an Emmy… 👑

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204063896

    Will be interesting to see what chance Elisabeth Moss has for Next Goal Wins. She may be helped by also being in The French Dispatch this year.

    She fits the mould of career wins in supporting.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204063902

    Beach

    I forgot that someone pointed out that Blanchett’s character role in Nightmare Alley getting revamped into lead while in book she is merely a supporting character. I wonder they will do the same with McKenzie and McPhee or to an extreme extent, switch their respective roles

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    kaziz
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    #1204064001

    I wonder they will do the same with McKenzie and McPhee or to an extreme extent, switch their respective roles

    I don’t want to spoil the book but they kinda…can’t, because of their gender. McPhee is Kirsten Dunst’s character’s son—he’s the basis of the final act of the novel because of a very important reason to do with his gender.

    It’s very possible Mckenzie has a killer role, but it won’t be anywhere near as big as McPhee’s.

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