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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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    Sab227
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    #1204032925

    He’s 0/9

    Bradley is actually 0/8 he’s been nominated 8 times not 9.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204033395

    B Coop is so thirsty for an Oscar LMAO

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    kaziz
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    #1204035879

    Why on earth do people think—just because of it’s huge stacked case—that Don’t Look Up will be a big Oscar player? I feel like apart from The Grand Budapest Hotel (which was only in acting contention for Ralph Fiennes!) I can’t think of any film in recent history composed entirely of LOTS OF BIG NAMES that did well. Hell, The Prom this year. Chicago 7 has a great cast, but they’re not global superstars the way JLaw, Leo, Evans, Streep, Blanchett, Ariana Grande…I mean…really?

    August: Osage County got 2 acting noms, but nothing otherwise. The excellent Burn After Reading got nada, Hail Caesar got nada. The closest thing I can think of is The Post which—like Chicago 7—had a host of great character actors like Carrie Coon, Matthews Rhys, Jesse Plemons, etc.

    Sure, maybe it could be a player, but it very well not be anything at all. But the stacked cast in itself tells us absolutely nothing?

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    Miles
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    #1204035892

    Adam McKay’s Vice exploded with Oscar nominations when no one expected it. He won an Oscar for The Big Short. He has a good track record all of late.

    What makes me most confident is the Leonardo DiCaprio of it all. His last three movies were Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Revenant, and The Wolf of Wall Street, and we know how those worked out for him. 3 Oscar nominations (and 1 win) in 3 Best Picture nominees. He can literally have any job he wants and he chose this. So did Blanchett, Streep, Chalamet, who are all in very high demand. Then you add Lawrence, Evans, Rylance, etc. They all signed on even though they all have small-ish parts. So I trust that it’s great.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204035998

    Adam McKay’s Vice exploded with Oscar nominations when no one expected it. He won an Oscar for The Big Short. He has a good track record all of late. What makes me most confident is the Leonardo DiCaprio of it all. His last three movies were Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Revenant, and The Wolf of Wall Street, and we know how those worked out for him. 3 Oscar nominations (and 1 win) in 3 Best Picture nominees. He can literally have any job he wants and he chose this. So did Blanchett, Streep, Chalamet, who are all in very high demand. Then you add Lawrence, Evans, Rylance, etc. They all signed on even though they all have small-ish parts. So I trust that it’s great.

    I only agree about Leo. He is very Intelligent and he is more selective than 99% of Our Industry

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    kaziz
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    #1204036710

    What makes me most confident is the Leonardo DiCaprio of it all. His last three movies were Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Revenant, and The Wolf of Wall Street

    That’s…a massively limited set. Sure, all 3 were made with high-profile directors and Adam McKay meets that bar on some level, but…so were The Great Gatsby (Baz Luhrmann), Shutter Island (Scorsese!), J. Edgar (Eastwood), and Revolutionary Road (Mendes). Leo is huge, yeah, but he was huge then, and it didn’t necessarily matter for the film. And Shutter Island & Revolutionary Road are great! Even if the film isn’t a dud, there’s literally no guarantee. Especially when something is hyped as much as Don’t Look Up is, more often than not things fail to live up to expectations.

    If anything I think now that Leo has won his Oscar, it only happens if the film in general is happening (Once Upon A Time in Hollywood was a bigger deal because of Brad Pitt. People weren’t BURNING to give Leo an Oscar for it anymore, why would they now?)

    The bigger point I was making was that FAB cast ensembles are not a recipe for success. As I mentioned, on paper films like The Prom or Burn After Reading should be runaway Oscar successes. They’re not. Don’t Look Up sounds to me like a film that may be incredibly fun for the actors and even audiences but, like The Great Gatsby, is not necessarily a “Best Picture” movie.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204037048

    That’s…a massively limited set. Sure, all 3 were made with high-profile directors and Adam McKay meets that bar on some level, but…so were The Great Gatsby (Baz Luhrmann), Shutter Island (Scorsese!), J. Edgar (Eastwood), and Revolutionary Road (Mendes). Leo is huge, yeah, but he was huge then, and it didn’t necessarily matter for the film. And Shutter Island & Revolutionary Road are great! Even if the film isn’t a dud, there’s literally no guarantee. Especially when something is hyped as much as Don’t Look Up is, more often than not things fail to live up to expectations. If anything I think now that Leo has won his Oscar, it only happens if the film in general is happening (Once Upon A Time in Hollywood was a bigger deal because of Brad Pitt. People weren’t BURNING to give Leo an Oscar for it anymore, why would they now?) The bigger point I was making was that FAB cast ensembles are not a recipe for success. As I mentioned, on paper films like The Prom or Burn After Reading should be runaway Oscar successes. They’re not. Don’t Look Up sounds to me like a film that may be incredibly fun for the actors and even audiences but, like The Great Gatsby, is not necessarily a “Best Picture” movie.

    I agree. It’s a comedy. Oscars usually don’t reward comedies. Streep is playing a Female Trump for laughs. So you know 70+ million(the Trump voters) would hate it with passion

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    diego
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    #1204037570

    We haven’t discussed Barry Levinson’s making of The Godfather yet.

    At first I thought the film was going to get lost in development hell but with Moss’ announcement as Eleanor Coppola it looks like it might be filming soon.

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    wolfali
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    #1204037734

    One film we are yet to talk about is Louis Wain. It’s an Amazon/Film4 costumed co-production starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Claire Foy. It could be one of Amazon’s priorities next year and potentially next year’s big British acting play à la The Two Popes. Cumberbatch has a juicy role. I assume Foy is borderline lead.

    I can already smell the HFPA moving Amsterdam to drama so they can award both it and Don’t Look Up. Poor Last Night in SoHo and The Power of the Dog.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    mansos
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    #1204038085

    We haven’t discussed Barry Levinson’s making of The Godfather yet. At first I thought the film was going to get lost in development hell but with Moss’ announcement as Eleanor Coppola it looks like it might be filming soon.

    I read the screenplay for this one and it’s bad. I mean, painfully bad. Should be noted it was the Blacklist script and apparently Levinson’s made some touches on it, but I don’t know… There’s a mafia subplot that’s so silly, and George Lucas is a supporting character that’s incredibly cringe.

    One thing, though: Jake Gyllenhaal as Robert Evans. He’s the only one in the script I actually enjoyed and Gyllenhaal seems perfect in the role. Maybe look out for him in the supporting categories.

     

    One film we are yet to talk about is Louis Wain. It’s an Amazon/Film4 costumed co-production starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Claire Foy. It could be one of Amazon’s priorities next year and potentially next year’s big British acting play à la The Two Popes. Cumberbatch has a juicy role. I assume Foy is borderline lead. I can already smell the HFPA moving Amsterdam to drama so they can award both it and Don’t Look Up. Poor Last Night in SoHo and The Power of the Dog.

    Don’t wanna be a downer but I have zero interest in Louis Wain. I’m pretty tired of all these Benedict Cumberbatch biopics; Louis Wain, Ironbark, The Imitation Game… I may be wrong and this one will surprise me, but as of now his role in The Power of the Dog looks so much more promising, and a more interesting pick of his. So as of now, I’m hoping for a nomination for TPotD instead.

     

     

    Btw, Lily Gladstone’s been cast in Killers of the Flower Moon! I can’t say I know any of her work and the film is more likely a 2023 contender, but considering her character Mollie’s part in the book, I hope we can expect great things for her.

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    Shrek Superslam
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    #1204038100

    Why on earth do people think—just because of it’s huge stacked case—that Don’t Look Up will be a big Oscar player? I feel like apart from The Grand Budapest Hotel (which was only in acting contention for Ralph Fiennes!) I can’t think of any film in recent history composed entirely of LOTS OF BIG NAMES that did well. Hell, The Prom this year. Chicago 7 has a great cast, but they’re not global superstars the way JLaw, Leo, Evans, Streep, Blanchett, Ariana Grande…I mean…really? August: Osage County got 2 acting noms, but nothing otherwise. The excellent Burn After Reading got nada, Hail Caesar got nada. The closest thing I can think of is The Post which—like Chicago 7—had a hos of great character actors like Carrie Coon, Matthews Rhys, Jesse Plemons, etc. Sure, maybe it could be a player, but it very well not be anything at all. But the stacked cast in itself tells us absolutely nothing?t

    I think it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. I’ve now read the script – you can find it v. easily if you search it up. It is a good screenplay, for sure, and topical. However, there are never really any Oscar moments for the character. I can imagine most of the actors pulling off the roles well, but I feel its unlikely that, unless it’s a particularly sparse year, that either DiCaprio or Lawrence get nominated… Although I feel like DiCaprio is the more likely of the two, as his role has a bit more depth and is less one-note. I think there’s a chance Streep gets nominated, but I see Blanchett as perhaps being a stronger outside contender in Supporting Actress. For Supporting Actor, it’s hard to see anyone getting in, apart from Rob Morgan, who stands as almost the “straight man” in the film. There’s, also, a distant possibility that Evans gets a nomination…

    On the whole, I’m fairly certain it’ll get a Best Original Screenplay nom and, probably, a Best Picture nom.. And the more I think about it, the more I think DiCaprio and Blanchett have decent chances of getting in. I feel like Lawrence is more likely to get in for her other films – the role is one-note to the point where it sort of becomes a joke, in a way.

    There is a good chance the script has been developed since I read it, but I don’t think it’ll be the Best Film of the year. Although, given its topicality, what I expect will be a strong ensemble (all the characters suit the actors very well!), a fairly dynamic director in MacKay and a pretty great script, then it could win Best Picture…

    Even if it would be kind of a Trial Of The Chicago 7/Green Book winner… And that’s coming from someone who very much enjoyed those two.

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    diego
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    #1204038111

    Btw, Lily Gladstone’s been cast in Killers of the Flower Moon! I can’t say I know any of her work and the film is more likely a 2023 contender, but considering her character Mollie’s part in the book, I hope we can expect great things for her.

    Such a great and inspired casting choice! I hope she gets awards buzz.

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    wolfali
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    #1204038287

    Will Next Goal Wins and Death on the Nile even come out? I can’t imagine films starring Armie Hammer doing well commercially considering all that’s going on with him right now.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    SN
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    #1204038296

    Will Next Goal Wins and Death on the Nile even come out? I can’t imagine films starring Armie Hammer doing well commercially considering all that’s going on with him right now.

    He’s not the protagonist in these films, so I don’t think so.

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    wolfali
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    #1204038299

    He’s not the protagonist in these films, so I don’t think so.

    I know but his character plays a pivotal role in the plot of the latter that I do question whether it will be able to come out.

    Maybe it will just end up being a Shia LaBeouf in Pieces of a Woman situation?

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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