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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 5)

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204159390

    Won’t Luca be released straight to streaming service? I think it makes it not eligible for Oscar.

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    wolfali
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    #1204159394

    Yeah I’m wondering whether they’ll extend the special dispensation they gave to films this year or if they’ll make it a permanent rule. I think studios themselves are wondering this. If I’m not mistaken both Cruella and Black Widow are being released in cinemas in the US but are going on Disney+ and in cinemas internationally.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    JV
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    #1204159411

    Won’t Luca be released straight to streaming service? I think it makes it not eligible for Oscar.

    They will probably extend the streaming eligibility. Disney wouldn’t send that movie to Disney + if they didn’t knew what was going to happen, otherwise it would be stupid.

    Plus: Luca has a fair shot at Best Picture nomination, considering we have 10 nominees.

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    wolfali
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    #1204159429

    This is such a good list, I’d love to see Annette get in here (it’s the production designer who did Holy Motors) but I can’t see House of Gucci missing this category atm.

    House of Gucci is possible but from what I’ve seen so far is that the costumes and makeup seems to be flashier than the production design so whilst I do think it’s possible (I have it sixth), I don’t see it being a sure thing in a category as competitive as this one.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    schmids
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    #1204159437

    House of Gucci is possible but from what I’ve seen so far is that the costumes and makeup seems to be flashier than the production design so whilst I do think it’s possible (I have it sixth), I don’t see it being a sure thing in a category as competitive as this one.

    That’s true, but we’re currently only seeing exteriors – they’re filming it in outrageously fancy villas, hotels and chalets etc all over Italy. Plus Maurizio Gucci was the definition of flashy – he owned this 200ft yacht – and his wife loved that luxury life so I think it’ll be in the conversation.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204159468

    I read the Don’t Look Up screenplay and I didn’t like it. I only liked Leo’s role. With so much competition, I don’t see it as a big player. Like I said only Leo has a great character.

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    schmids
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    #1204159472

    I read the Don’t Look Up screenplay and I didn’t like it. I only liked Leo’s role. With so much competition, I don’t see it as a big player. Like I said only Leo has a great character.

    A few people have said this about the script.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204159483

    Amy going from Justice League to Vice to Hillbilly Elegy to Woman in the Window after Nocturnal Animals/Arrival is one career trajectory.

    cause Venom wasn’t avilable. 😉

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    gorman
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    #1204159520

    I read the Don’t Look Up screenplay and I didn’t like it. I only liked Leo’s role. With so much competition, I don’t see it as a big player. Like I said only Leo has a great character.

    Haven’t read it, although McKay seems like a bit of a love/hate figure and whilst I couldn’t stand Vice and thought its script was weak lots clearly loved it, so with the star-power and Netflix factor behind it, plus his style being popular with many voters, I can still easily see it being a player.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204159541

    I read the Don’t Look Up screenplay and I didn’t like it. I only liked Leo’s role. With so much competition, I don’t see it as a big player. Like I said only Leo has a great character.

    Perhaps that’s what attracted him to the project.

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    Magnus
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    #1204159781

    Luca has a fair shot at Best Picture nomination, considering we have 10 nominees.

    Eh, I don’t think it looks that good.

    2022 Awards FYC:
    Shiva Baby (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress - Rachel Sennott, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score)
    Summer of Soul (Best Picture, Best Documentary Feature)
    Zola (Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo)
    Cruella (Best Costume Design)

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    Anirudh Arun
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    #1204159810

    Haven’t read it, although McKay seems like a bit of a love/hate figure and whilst I couldn’t stand Vice and thought its script was weak lots clearly loved it, so with the star-power and Netflix factor behind it, plus his style being popular with many voters, I can still easily see it being a player.

    Exactly. Especially from what I’ve heard he has combined global warming and poisonous politics in intersection with a dangerous media (Trump + Fox News). I could see it being eaten up by the Academy unless it becomes too campy or contrived. We’ll have to wait and see. Also, Adam also does a lot of improv, so the script is subject to heavy change during the shoot.

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204159845

    Out of curiosity, for people who (tentatively) put CODA in their BP lineup, can I ask why? And have you seen it? Not in a rude way, just a genuine question from someone who saw it a couple months back.

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    Croman
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    #1204159890

    CODA will follow the same awards trajectory as Blinded by the Light

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    PM94
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    #1204159950

    As someone who has seen CODA, I am torn on whether or not it can snag a Best Picture nomination. On one hand, it’s such a warm and fuzzy crowd-pleaser that did very well at Sundance–although, U.S. Dramatic was quite weak this year. It’s very much in the same vein as Green Book or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

    On the other, it really feels like one of those Sundance movies that seems like it’ll do well with critics and awards voters and then goes absolutely nowhere. Despite how much the film tries to wrestle with, it’s just such a small and slight movie. On top of that, it’s competently made, but other than one or two sequences, isn’t inventive or stylistically interesting.

    I’m leaning more towards it not making it in. Maybe it’ll get a screenplay or supporting performance nomination, but Best Picture seems like a stretch. Take that with a grain of salt, given that I’m not a fan of this movie, so I also don’t want it to make it that far. As someone else said, it’s basically five Sundance movies for the price of one, and that includes all of the awful tropes and whatnot.

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