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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 5)

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204159959

    But will any of them even get enough material? The cast is so big surely there aren’t any ‘lead’ roles.

    I reckon it’ll be a bit like how in American Hustle you have kind of three main people (Bale, Robbie and Washington), with some strong supporting players (I’m guessing Rami Malek is gonna be one?).

    All the same, I reckon it gets at least one acting nomination and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was for Bale. And it could get quite a few technical noms due to its period setting.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204159968

    As someone who has seen CODA, I am torn on whether or not it can snag a Best Picture nomination. On one hand, it’s such a warm and fuzzy crowd-pleaser that did very well at Sundance–although, U.S. Dramatic was quite weak this year. It’s very much in the same vein as Green Book or Incredibly Loud and Extremely Close. On the other, it really feels like one of those Sundance movies that seems like it’ll do well with critics and awards voters and then goes absolutely nowhere. Despite how much the film tries to wrestle with, it’s just such a small and slight movie. On top of that, it’s competently made, but other than one or two sequences, isn’t inventive or stylistically interesting. I’m leaning more towards it not making it in. Maybe it’ll get a screenplay or supporting performance nomination, but Best Picture seems like a stretch. Take that with a grain of salt, given that I’m not a fan of this movie, so I also don’t want it to make it that far. As someone else said, it’s basically five Sundance movies for the price of one, and that includes all of the awful tropes and whatnot.

    I think MAYBE a supporting actress nomination for Matlin. I think CODA could do well with Indie Spirits (budget pertaining) and with critics, but I’d be very shocked if it cracked anywhere in the Oscars aside from Marlee Matlin.

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    PM94
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    #1204159981

    I think MAYBE a supporting actress nomination for Matlin. I think CODA could do well with Indie Spirits (budget pertaining) and with critics, but I’d be very shocked if it cracked anywhere in the Oscars aside from Marlee Matlin.

    And as fine as Matlin is in the film, if you’re gonna single anyone out, I’d go with Tony Kotsur. He’s the best and most felt character in the movie. But that’s just me.

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204160001

    And as fine as Matlin is in the film, if you’re gonna single anyone out, I’d go with Tony Kotsur. He’s the best and most felt character in the movie. But that’s just me.

    I personally thought Jones was the best, but there’s no way she’s going to get in. I think if anyone had a shot it would be Matlin.

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    Croman
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    #1204160009

    I personally thought Jones was the best, but there’s no way she’s going to get in. I think if anyone had a shot it would be Matlin.

    The problem with Matlin is she would just get in on name recognition and a “comeback” nomination. Not to underplay her performance cause she was excellent, but Jones and I guess Troy Kotsur are the ones you walk away with as being the most effective and objectively better.

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    24fanatic
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    #1204160079

    How it performs I think really depends on if CODA breaks through or not to Oscar voters. It might not, but if it does, I think there will be a big reaction to it.

    Picture, Screenplay, Potentially Directing (considering it’s a female director who has opened the door to casting deaf actors in major roles), Supporting Actor (Tony Kotsur), Supporting Actress (Marlee Matlin) and Original Song are all noms that are in play.

    I loved Emilia Jones in her lead performance but I can see voters go either way in terms of taking her seriously enough since the film is a coming of age type. At the very least she will be taking home a bunch of “Breakthrough Acting” critics awards and might score a Globe nom in Comedy.

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    schmids
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    #1204160083

    I loved Emilia Jones in her lead performance but I can see voters go either way in terms of taking her seriously enough since the film is a coming of age type. At the very least she will be taking home a bunch of “Breakthrough Acting” critics awards and might score a Globe nom in Comedy.

    The Globes Comedy category is going to be packed to the rafters with musicals next year. Super competitive, especially on the lead actor side.

    The overwhelming majority of slots could go to musicals.

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204160093

    How it performs I think really depends on if CODA breaks through or not to Oscar voters. It might not, but if it does, I think there will be a big reaction to it. Picture, Screenplay, Potentially Directing (considering it’s a female director who has opened the door to casting deaf actors in major roles), Supporting Actor (Tony Kotsur), Supporting Actress (Marlee Matlin) and Original Song are all noms that are in play. I loved Emilia Jones in her lead performance but I can see voters go either way in terms of taking her seriously enough since the film is a coming of age type. At the very least she will be taking home a bunch of “Breakthrough Acting” critics awards and might score a Globe nom in Comedy.

    That’s my main concern, is that the film is still has to leap the hurdle that it’s a very coming of age movie that, while I love (it’s my #2 of the year), doesn’t really say that much or do anything super new.

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    L@br@dor
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    #1204160203

    Is DUNE not a viable contender ?

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    SN
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    #1204160205

    Focus dated Stillwater, new film by Spotlight director Tom McCarthy starring Matt Damon, to July. Seems like it’s not going to be a contender.

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    Stank83
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    #1204160227

    Yeah, it seems like they are dumping it.

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    JV
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    #1204160233
    L@br@dor wrote:

    Is DUNE not a viable contender ?

    Only for craft categories, like Blade Runner 2049. Cinematography, Sound, VFX and Production Design.

    As someone who hasn’t read the books and as a big fan of Villeneuve, I personally have zero interest in this movie. At least the Blade Runner 2049 (which I’m a big fan) trailers had cool visuals, Ryan Gosling (who had massive buzz after La La Land) and action sequences (the only action sequences in the movie, btw), and still wasn’t enough to attract people from outside of the niche

    Dune doesn’t have none of those things. It looks just like another pale and generic sci-fi. I’m 100% sure it would bomb hard at the box office even without the pandemic. It will struggle to attract people who aren’t well versed about this universe.

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    gorman
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    #1204160246
    L@br@dor wrote:

    Is DUNE not a viable contender ?

    I think it’s certainly viable for Picture. It should be strong enough to get numerous tech nods and has a shot as Director. I also think if it’s successful it may have a chance at an Adapted nomination because the book is so notoriously difficult to adapt. I’m currently predicting it for about 8 or 9 nominations, but it could also easily just be limited to a few techs because like JV suggests, it may well not do great business at the box office and there’s a ton of big, tech-friendly films coming out so it may get shafted a little if it isn’t a big hit.

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    gorman
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    #1204160256

    Focus dated Stillwater, new film by Spotlight director Tom McCarthy starring Matt Damon, to July. Seems like it’s not going to be a contender.

    Not too surprised, but sad because I was rooting for Camille Cottin.

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    schmids
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    #1204160258

    Not too surprised, but sad because I was rooting for Camille Cottin.

    Cottin is also in House of Gucci.

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